tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-87541491737212368082024-03-12T19:53:20.987-07:00Alternate Timelines Weekly UpdateA place to post Alternate Timelines created by me and the members of my Alternate Timelines Forum.rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-38177823703551484352019-09-27T14:11:00.003-07:002019-09-27T14:14:43.353-07:00<a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/2783/second-battle-britain-soviet-sealion?page=1&scrollTo=68005" style="font-size: 23px; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank">The Second Battle of Britain - a Soviet Sealion</a><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRDqM9zDZoxMiTKpzoAlPs4WTuIXa6XzoyFR1XNL8QdDRLDEexts81mb9Lucg_HgEmS-KdXELKNK10sK-7-g6UTRoaUQxrSvFgdo_17uytpN9YhpHq9XbZhd7xpOm6z9cxVWBBOXCNuWQ/s1600/The+Second+Battle+of+Britain+-+a+Soviet+Sealion+%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="312" data-original-width="820" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRDqM9zDZoxMiTKpzoAlPs4WTuIXa6XzoyFR1XNL8QdDRLDEexts81mb9Lucg_HgEmS-KdXELKNK10sK-7-g6UTRoaUQxrSvFgdo_17uytpN9YhpHq9XbZhd7xpOm6z9cxVWBBOXCNuWQ/s400/The+Second+Battle+of+Britain+-+a+Soviet+Sealion+%25281%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #14171a; font-size: 23px; white-space: pre-wrap;">The Spanish failed in 1588, the French failed in 1803 and the Germans failed in 1940, but now in 1987 the Soviets have succeeded where others have failed, the second Battle for Britain has begun, can the British hold against a Soviet Sealion from the air.</span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-59179945045360884862017-07-23T03:28:00.001-07:002017-07-23T03:28:33.732-07:00Map: North Sea Drainage Project (1930)<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Map: North Sea Drainage Project (1930)</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Some 10 millennia ago, during the last Ice Age, so much water was stored in huge polar ice caps that sea levels were 120 m lower than today. The North Sea consequently wasn’t a sea, but a land bridge between Britain and Europe. Geologists call this Doggerland, after the Dogger Bank, the shallowest, largest sand bank in the North Sea today. In all probability, this now sunken land land of once undulating prairie was quite densely inhabited by Stone Age humans. These must have been their hunting grounds, their prey the mammoths whose bones fishermen sometimes still dredge up from the sea floor.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In September 1930, there existed at least one wild plan to reclaim this particular piece of sunken real estate from the seas and increase the size of Europe by linking the British Isles to the Continent. The new one would be called…DOGGERLAND, ore maybe only in the pages of Modern Mechanix, an American magazine (1928-2001) that ran under a variety of titles.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt=" " src="http://flashbak.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/doggerland.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Under the title 'North Sea Drainage Project to Increase Area of Europe', a caption reads:</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">“If the extensive schemes for the drainage of North Sea are carried out according to the plan illustrated above, which was conceived by a group of eminent English scientists, 100,000 square miles will be added to the overcrowded continents of Europe. The reclaimed land will be walled in with enormous dykes, similar to the Netherland dykes, to protect it from the sea, and the various rivers flowing into the North Sea will have their courses diverted to different outlets by means of canals.”</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Conspicuously absent are the scientists’ credentials. The logistics of building a 450-mile-long dyke connecting Norfolk (England) to Jutland (Denmark), rising 90 feet above the sea level, seem daunting enough for our own age, let alone for the 1930s. A similar dyke at the North Sea’s south end, barely 150 miles long, would only leave Antwerp and London with direct sea access, depriving the whole of the Netherlands and much of Germany and Denmark of a coastline.</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" />Read more: <a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/1227/map-north-drainage-project-1930#ixzz4neK8hAO1" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #003399; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; word-wrap: break-word;">http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/1227/map-north-drainage-project-1930#ixzz4neK8hAO1</a></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-33076226249205849092017-07-23T03:26:00.001-07:002017-07-23T03:27:57.149-07:00Maps: The German Plan to Drain the Mediterranean (Atlantropa)<span style="background-position: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e 06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/1226/maps-german-drain-mediterranean-atlantropa" target="_blank">Maps: The German Plan to Drain the Mediterranean (Atlantropa)</a></span><br />
<b><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></b><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">The “Atlantropa” scheme proposed to form land bridges between Africa and Europe by damming and partially draining the Mediterranean</i><span style="background-position: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e 06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><img alt="" src="https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/styles/story_large/public/thumbnails/image/2015/09/17/20/15-Atlantropa-Impression.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px;">Perpetual war, grinding poverty and a time bomb of overpopulation resulting in millions of refugees crossing continents. A fitting description perhaps for the emergency facing Europe today – but those problems also fuelled a German architect’s extraordinary 1920s scheme to resettle millions of Europeans in Africa.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px;">The “Atlantropa” scheme proposed to form land bridges between Africa and Europe by damming and partially draining the Mediterranean, allowing millions of Europeans to find a new life in what would become the southern zone of a Eurafrican supercontinent. It would, of course, lead to European domination of Africa – a fact deemed acceptable in an era scarred by racism and colonialism.</span><br />
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<i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Map of proposed dams in the Strait of Gibraltar. From Herman Soergel, Lowering the Mediterranean, Irrigating the Sahara. Panropa Project (1929)</i><img alt=" " src="http://atlanticsentinel.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Atlantropa-Gibraltar-dams-map-600x400.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br />
<i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: x-small; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></i><span style="background-position: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 10pt; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e 06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">A German architect by the name of Herman Sörgel came up with it the idea of the “Atlantropa” scheme, not a Nazi himself, the rise of Adolf Hitler in the 1920s and 30s convinced Sörgel that radical new solutions were needed to solve Europe’s problems of high unemployment and what he believed was an impending energy crisis.<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" />He first published Mittelmeer-Senkung, Sahara-Bewässerung. Panropaprojekt (“Lowering the Mediterranean, Irrigating the Sahara. Panropa Project”) in 1929. He expanded on his thesis in another book three years later, which introduced the name “Atlantropa”.<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Exhibition poster, 1932</i><img alt="" src="http://www.environmentandsociety.org/sites/default/files/styles/popup/public/atlantropa-001-title.jpg?itok=f4xNff0g" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" />The plan called for the construction of dams at key points in the Mediterranean: first at the Strait of Gibraltar and the Dardanelles, eventually between Sicily and Tunisia. The sea would thus be converted into two basins, with the western part lowered by around one meter per year and the eastern part by two meters. Over the course of a century, that would lower the sea level by 100 and 200 meters, respectively, creating some 660,000 square kilometers of arable land.<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" />This area — larger than France — could be cultivated to feed Europe’s growing population.<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></u></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px;">The plan contained some fantastical details with dams across the Strait of Gibraltar, the Dardanelles, and eventually between Sicily and Tunisia, each containing gigantic hydroelectric power plants, would form the basis for the new supercontinent. In its final state the Mediterranean would be converted into two basins, the western part lowered by 100 metres and the eastern part by 200 metres and an area larger than France reclaimed from the sea.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px;">Subsequent engineering works included in Sörgel’s proposal were an extension of the Suez Canal, a new canal connecting Venice to the sea (the Adriatic Sea would have disappeared) and the creation of enormous lakes in Central Africa, which he hoped could be used to irrigate the region</span><br />
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<i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Map of Herman Sörgel’s Atlantropa</i><br />
<img alt="" src="http://atlanticsentinel.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Atlantropa-map-267x400.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br />
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<i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">A more modern map of Herman Sörgel’s Atlantropa</i><br />
<img alt="" src="http://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/styles/story_medium/public/thumbnails/image/2015/09/17/20/15-graphic.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px;">In line with the colonial and racist attitudes of the times, Mr Sörgel envisaged Africa to be entirely at the disposal of Europe, a continent with plenty of space to accommodate Europe’s masses.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px;">While his proposal may sound absurd to our ears, it was taken seriously by architects, engineers, politicians and journalists at the time. The extensive Atlantropa archive in the Deutsche Museum in Munich abounds with architectural drawings for new cities, the dams and bridges of the future continent as well as letters of support and hundreds of articles about the project, which appeared in the German and international popular press, as well as in specialised engineering and geographical magazines.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px;">What made Atlantropa so attractive was its vision of world peace achieved not through politics and diplomacy, but with a simple technological solution.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px;">Atlantropa would be held together by a vast energy net, which would extend from the gigantic hydroelectric plant in the Gibraltar dam and provide the entirety of Europe and Africa with electricity. An independent body would have the power to switch off the energy supply to any country that posed a threat to peace.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px;">Moreover, Mr Sörgel calculated the construction of the supercontinent would require each country to invest so much money that none would have sufficient resources to finance a war. He dedicated a large part of his work to the promotion and dissemination of the project through the press, radio, films, talks, exhibitions and even poetry and an Atlantropa symphony.</span><br />
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<i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">(YouTube) Clips from the 1951 Atlantropa film (deutsch) - Gibraltar Dam project</i><br />
<i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><iframe allowfullscreen="1" frameborder="0" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Ahw7wOlGpR4?wmode=transparent&start=0" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></i>
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<i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">(YouTube) Atlantropa a new continent</i></i><br />
<i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></i><iframe allowfullscreen="1" frameborder="0" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/f5s4ywsCFAI?wmode=transparent&start=0" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px;">However there were a few drawbacks to all this, in 1977 Popular Mechanics reported that Atlantropa would have shut some of the world’s busiest seaports, disrupted the economies of countries in Southern Europe and North Africa and possibly changed the ecology of the entire area.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px;">The reduced weight of water over the volcanic Mediterranean sea floor could have caused violent eruptions and earthquakes while the ocean level in other parts of the world would have risen, causing flooding in low-lying areas.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px;">Sörgel’s hope was that Atlantropa might satisfy Germany’s desire for Lebensraum as he calculated the construction of the supercontinent would require each country to invest so much money that none would have sufficient resources to finance a war.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px;">Instead, under Hitler, it invaded Eastern Europe.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px;">The Nazis never took Sörgel seriously, but who knows? In an alternate world, where the Axis won World War II, they might well have reconsidered in order to satisfy their thirst for expansion.</span><span style="background-position: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-family: "verdana" , "arial"; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e 06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br /></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-77345914911249033272017-02-13T11:13:00.001-08:002017-02-13T11:13:42.615-08:00<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">What If: Singapore Had Not Fallen</span><br />
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://historynet.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/image/2011/WWII/Feb/What%20If.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">At the start of World War II, Singapore had symbolized the British Empire’s presence in Southeast Asia for nearly a century. When its garrison surrendered to the Japanese on February 15, 1942, Prime Minister Winston Churchill called it the worst disaster in his country’s military history. Everything that could go wrong had gone wrong. The British had pre-positioned a grossly inadequate number of aircraft and warships. Japanese bombers had sunk the only two capital ships defending Singapore—the battleship Prince of Wales and battle cruiser Repulse—when those vessels tried to contest the Japanese landings along the Thailand-Malaya frontier. The British defense of Malaya was a marvel of incompetence. Lieutenant General Tomoyuki Yamashita completely outgeneraled Lieutenant General Arthur Percival. With a force of only 70,000 he managed to kill or capture over 138,000 British, Indian, Australian, and Malayan troops.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Such details imply that with better generalship Singapore could have escaped capture. In fact, most students of the campaign believe that even in the best circumstances, a successful defense was improbable. The naval base that gave Singapore its strategic significance was located on the northern end of Singapore Island, well protected against attack by enemy warships but nearly bereft of protection against a land assault. While it is a myth that the island’s coastal batteries could fire only out to sea, they were supplied mostly with armor-piercing shells of limited use against ground forces.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">As early as 1937, the British general staff had concluded that a Japanese land attack was feasible and could capture Singapore in two months’ time. Little was done about this, however. Many of the British, Indian, and Australian forces eventually deployed to block a Japanese advance were inadequately trained. Furthermore, the Royal Air Force constructed air fields in the northernmost part of the colony for the 178 war planes assigned to defend Malaya, which forced the British army to defend them and left it with a long, vulnerable seaward flank.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Nor did the British revisit their naval strategy for Singapore. The naval base held few warships. Instead it was intended to receive and supply a British battle fleet that would be dispatched to Singapore if an emergency arose. With the outbreak of war in Europe, however, the Royal Navy had its hands full in the Atlantic. And with the fall of France, it had to defend the Mediterranean as well. Sending a substantial battle fleet was therefore out of the question. Sending only the Prince of Wales and Repulse was a pathetic bluff.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Logically, the British might have cut their losses by stationing only a token force at Singapore, similar to the 10,000 troops sacrificed at Hong Kong. But Singapore’s status as a jewel of the British Empire, and its mythic characterization as the “Gibraltar of the East,” practically forced Churchill to make a major bid to hold it—not enough, as matters turned out, to do so successfully, but enough to swell the number of forces lost and make the disaster even worse than it would otherwise have been.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">It is impossible to imagine a single twist of fate that could have saved Singapore. But what if a combination of events had turned in Britain’s favor? Suppose the British defense had been better conducted. Suppose the carrier Indomitable, which had been assigned to join the Prince of Wales and Repulse, had not run aground. Suppose instead that it had arrived on station and that its aircraft had fended off the swarms of enemy bombers and allowed the two capital ships to contest the Japanese landings.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Suppose that Yamashita, whose audacity earned him the sobriquet the “Tiger of Malaya,” had shown greater caution. Suppose that, when the Japanese finally landed on Singapore Island, Percival had counterattacked (as he planned to do until dissuaded by subordinates)—an attack, we now know, that would likely have defeated Yamashita’s troops, which had badly outstripped their supply lines. And suppose that the Japanese high command then did not reinforce Yamashita enough to make another try.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">This is a mighty string of suppositions. But if, by whatever wizardry, Singapore managed to elude capture, what then? Would that have substantially altered the war in the Pacific?</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In fact, the principal positive result would have been humanitarian. The Japanese could not have sent most of Singapore’s defenders to labor on the infamous Burma-Thailand Railroad, where 16,000 of them died. Nor could the Japanese have terrorized the population of Singapore and murdered as many as 50,000 of its Chinese residents.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">From a strategic standpoint, however, it is unlikely that Britain’s retention of Singapore would have redounded to the Allies’ advantage. The denial of Singapore to the enemy would not have been a serious problem for the Japanese. Although historically the Japanese navy did use Singapore as a port, the need to combat the United States meant that its major bases were the Home Islands, Rabaul, and Truk.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">As a naval asset, Singapore was of dubious value. British First Sea Lord Dudley Pound had declared in August 1940, “There is no object in sending a fleet to Singapore unless it is strong enough to fight the Japanese fleet.” Days before the outbreak of the Pacific War, British Admiral Tom Phillips and his American counterpart, Admiral Thomas C. Hart, concurred that Singapore held no potential for offensive operations. Pound considered Trincomalee, Ceylon, superior to Singapore as a base from which to protect the Indian Ocean—and historically Trincomalee proved effective for that mission.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">From an army standpoint, Singapore was no better as a springboard for offensive operations. The Japanese could easily block any attempt to move north along the Malayan peninsula. True, heavy bombers based on Singapore could have struck targets across a wide swath of Japanese-occupied territory in Southeast Asia. But, and here is the key problem, any resources dispatched to Singapore, whether aerial, naval, or army, would have come at the expense of theaters where they were more urgently needed.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">And yet, even if Great Britain had staved off the 1941–42 invasion attempt, for reasons of imperial prestige it could never have abandoned Singapore. Instead, it would have been condemned to an endless effort to keep the island resupplied and reinforced. The vital Atlantic and Mediterranean theaters would have suffered. Offensives elsewhere might have been delayed or might have failed outright. Even if it remained in British hands, Singapore, the renowned “Jewel of the East,” would have proven only an overpriced bauble.</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-42373293706729038342017-01-27T02:58:00.002-08:002017-01-27T02:58:34.928-08:00<div class="title-bar" id="important_titlebar" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">
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When the US Army created their own Alternate History</h1>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In the late 1940s, the U.S. Army created an entire fake military that it could use for realistic training.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The ground combat branch developed a deep and complex history for this “aggressor” that reflected concerns from World War II and the emerging Cold War.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The basic premise, as described in a series of official field manuals, was that a “totalitarian state … [had] established a fascist-type of organization called the Circle Trigon Party” in a devastated post-war Western Europe.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">These “</span><a href="http://www.alternatewars.com/WW3/Trigons/Trigons.htm" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Circle Trigonists</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">” clearly were aping the Nazis.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The “official” history stated that the party formed in Bavaria, Germany before spreading into Tyrol in Austria, southern France, northern Italy and Spain. Washington feared that many Nazis had fled to these locales after World War II.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">June 1947 Historical Backgrounder</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt=" " src="https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1200/1*1m2sDxCPRa-r97KVH2Hh2g.jpeg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">I. GENERAL</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">At the close of World War II in 1945 the chaotic conditions in Western Europe, which resulted from fundamental disagreements between the victorious allied nations and the failure of the United Nations Organization, gave rise to a new nation, Aggressor.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">When the surrender of Germany was followed almost immediately by wholesale allied withdrawals, a small group of determined men, confirmed in their belief in the totalitarian nation-state, gathered in Spain, took over the control of the weakening government, and established the Aggressor Republic.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">That this action was possible was due primarily to quarrels that broke out among- the former allies, a disinclination on the part of any one nation to accept the responsibility for the direct physical action necessary to suppress this new group, and finally the clever use of propaganda and slogans which freely used the terms "democracy," "the people," and other similar terms.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">As soon as the new government had firmly consolidated its position in Spain and Spanish Morocco, it began to infiltrate to the north and east. A fertile field for their well planned and executed propaganda was found in southern France, northern Italy, Bavaria, and the Tyrol, where United States occupational forces were rapidly being redeployed. A strong secession movement grew almost overnight in those areas which the weakened central governments of France and Italy and the ineffective provisional government of Bavaria were powerless to prevent. The natural revulsion of these peoples toward communism asserted itself and provided a strong psychological weapon for the organizers. All races and classes were appealed to.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">After a brief but violent uprising in early 1946, aided and controlled from the Aggressor capital by means of a highly trained fifth column, these two areas were granted independence, promptly applied for union with Aggressor, and were admitted to the Republic.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Immediately upon the successful conclusion of this venture, Aggressor entered upon a well-balanced and carefully controlled period of intense development and organization of all resources and phases of national life. The immediate goal of national unity and relative self-sufficiency was quickly obtained. In contrast to its neighbors, Aggressor was reasonably prosperous and its people happy and contented with the new government which started fulfilling its initial promises. Of course, one distinct advantage enjoyed by the new nation was that the bulk of its lands had escaped the destruction of war which had so severely impaired the national economy of other European nations.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Aggressor was in a peculiar position in the world, as her able leaders had foreseen. Initially backed in secret by the western allied powers as a buffer against the Slavic nations and communism, Aggressor was even more secretly supported by the Comintern as an acceptable vehicle for the spread of communism throughout Catholic Europe and as a buffer to the wealthy western allies. Aggressor was engaged in a race against time. She must be a well established power when the dull and war-weary former allies realized her true ambition and organized to put her down. Her leaders believed that she must strike before that day. Her blow must be against the most powerful nation. While she was doing so the others must be kept placated. The nation to be struck must not be allowed to reach her offensive potential in order to lead the strike against the new nation.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Turning its attention from the devastated areas of Western Europe to the prosperous and unscathed lands of North America, Aggressor began plans in early 1946 for an invasion of the United States. Although the United States had emerged from the war as a strong military nation, its hasty and ill-advised demobilization together with widespread internal disturbances and general war weariness finally convinced the High Command that such a plan offered reasonable chance of success if aided by a well organized subversive organization and a skillful propaganda campaign.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Living up to its suggestive name, the newly founded confederation went into action. An expedition was hurriedly formed. To achieve strategic surprise, the California coast was selected as the invasion point. It was hoped that California, and perhaps Arizona and New Mexico, would be quickly overrun and then a negotiated peace obtained in which these areas would be ceded to Aggressor in return for an alliance between the two countries. The Rocky Mountains would provide a barrier to the movement of the bulk of the United States general reserves located in the Mississippi Valley and in the Atlantic coastal region.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The first military move in this plan was the seizure of the Panama Canal. In the guise of refugees and displaced persons from Europe, a large, well-armed and trained group settled around the Canal. Then, aided by agents and sympathizers in the Zone, the control of the Canal was quickly and easily secured. Perfectly timed with this seizure, the Expeditionary Force sailed through the Canal and up the west coast, landing as planned at several points on the California coast in November 1946. Simultaneously guided missile attacks were launched against the great rail and road centers of the Midwest and the industrial rectangle. Saboteurs blew in tunnels and smashed bridges that canalized communications through the Rockies.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The Expedition met with initial success, but the United States forces rallied rather more quickly than was expected and a grave and nearly fatal logistical error became apparent. The supply line was too long and exposed for the relatively small navy. Complete disaster was avoided only through the active assistance of American Quisling groups and sympathizers who had penetrated even into the United States Government.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Chiefly through the services of this group, a compromise peace was accepted. The Aggressor Forces were withdrawn from the Continental United States, but the seizure of certain Caribbean bases by Aggressor and the coups d'etat by Aggressor-influenced parties in neighboring Central American countries were recognized by the United States.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Since the signing of the peace treaty, Aggressor has redoubled its efforts to create a large, well-trained and equipped, air-transportable Armed Force. In this, they were aided by the rapid acquisition of thousands of long range United States aircraft abandoned in Europe upon the withdrawal of United States occupational forces. While in a sense the California Expedition was a failure, it gave indications of future possible success if conducted with more careful planning and in greater force. Propaganda aimed at the American Government and Armed Forces has flooded the country in various disguises. In all probability, it is only a question of time until Aggressor renews its attempt to subjugate the North American continent.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">II. POPULATION</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The newly acquired lands raised the population figure of the Republic to about 110,000,000. In addition, an active campaign, was launched to attract immigrants and displaced persons from other European nations. Scientists, soldiers, and professional men of all types were particularly desired. Preferential treatment was accorded leaders in scientific, industrial, and military fields. Former Quisling groups of other nations took full advantage of this offer.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Strong efforts have been adopted to increase the population by raising the normal birth rate. The usual means of bounties, state education for certain children, and other conventional practices are in effect. The ultimate result, of course, will be the necessity of acquiring new lands to accommodate the fast-growing population.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">III. LANGUAGE AND RELIGION</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Spanish has been adopted as the official language; although it has not fully supplanted the local French, German, and Italian in certain areas, it is expected to do so in the course of another generation. In this matter and in religion, Aggressor has proved to be tactful, employing subtle means to achieve its ends.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">While there is no state religion as such, complete religious freedom is enjoyed throughout the Republic. This policy has had the distinct advantage of not antagonizing or alienating any religious group. In fact, Aggressor agents have infiltrated the various religions and use them •abroad to further their own national propaganda.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">IV. FORM OF GOVERNMENT</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The government is completely totalitarian in form. Control is highly centralized at the top and tends somewhat toward bureaucracy. It enjoys the normal advantages attendant on totalitarianism, i. e., efficiency and quick decisive action with all branches of national life directed toward a common end (e. g., the quick mobilization for war in 1946).</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Government functions are marked by impressive ritual and an air of mystery. This has had a strong appeal to many classes of people in the country.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The real power in government is in the hands of a small group of men. The total membership in this select group, having representatives from all professions, is for the most part unknown. International figures are present, among whom Martin Bormann, Tito Farruchi, Pilar Cordoba, and the great industrialist and financier, Kurt Fryssen, hold government portfolios. Strict party discipline is a fetish. Leadership is vested in the Supreme Council, familiarly termed the "Trinity" by followers and enemies alike. Bormann represents the Teutonic peoples, the popular Farruchi the Italians and French, and Cordoba the Spanish and Arab peoples. All of these men are popular, dynamic figures. Their authority appears to be equal.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">V. INDUSTRY</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Considerable emphasis has been placed upon development of national industry. With the factories of Bavaria and northern Italy as a nucleus, industry has been expanded and dispersed according to a well-conceived plan of national strategy. In this connection, the communication system has been revolutionized. The nation's war potential has been extensively developed. The manufacture of atomic weapons, though not definitely known, is believed to be taking place. Industry is closely coordinated with the needs of the armed forces.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">VI. ARMED FORCES</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The armed forces have been rapidly expanded along sound lines. Disbanded troops of many nations flocked to the Aggressor Republic and formed the cadre of a large well-balanced professional fighting force. Conscription was inaugurated to build up a large trained reserve. Experienced military leadership was readily available and eager to accept employment; all were welcomed. The remnants of the Wehrmacht and the Junkers were again employed and rapidly regained their old self-esteem.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The training of all components is extremely thorough and rigorous. A very high standard of discipline is maintained; morale and esprit de corps are excellent, and the prestige of the armed forces is high.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The standing army is composed of two army groups, each numbering roughly 1,000,000 men. In addition, a third army group headquarters exists to train and control a replacement training army and a peoples militia integrated with the national police to be used as a final reserve in the event of invasion. The air force maintains two operational air armies and in case of emergency assumes control of all civil aviation which is organized along military lines. One army group and an air army are stationed in Spain and Morocco, the other army group and air army in France and Italy.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The naval arm, while not large, is well developed. Weak in capital ships, the Aggressor Navy has emphasized submarines, aircraft carriers, and small, fast torpedo boats. Marine detachments perform local security duties, man naval antiaircraft defenses, and carry out shore patrol and other administrative functions. They are not organized for ground combat.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The nation's manpower, including women, has been carefully registered and graded by mental and physical profiles. In general, all combat arms receive about the same proportion of the various classifications. The infantry, however, receives particular attention and its recruits are carefully selected for physical stamina. Within the infantry, the fusiliers are a highly selected group, and represent the pick of the nation's manhood.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Every citizen is drafted for national service and directed to the work he can perform most efficiently. Those not accepted by the armed forces are carefully regulated as to type and place of work. Air raid protection and fire fighting groups are well organized. In addition, all personnel on civilian assignments can be called upon for service in a military force called up in case of invasion of the homeland.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">August 1950/March 1951 Historical Backgrounder</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">History of Aggressor</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">At the close of World War II in 1945 the chaotic conditions in Western Europe, resulting from fundamental disagreements between the victorious allied nations, gave rise to a new nation.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://www.alternatewars.com/WW3/Trigons/Aggressor.gif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">When the surrender of Germany was followed almost immediately by wholesale allied withdrawals, a small group of determined men, confirmed in their belief in the totalitarian state, established a Fascist type of organization called the Circle Trigon Party. That this action succeeded was due primarily to a disinclination on the part of any one nation to accept the responsibility for the direct physical action necessary to suppress this new group, and to the clever use of propaganda and slogans by the Circle Trigonists who freely used the terms "democracy," "the people," and other similar terms. As soon as the Party had consolidated its position in Bavaria it began to infiltrate adjacent regions. It found a fertile field for its well-planned and executed propaganda in Spain, southern France, northern Italy, and the Tyrol, which joined in the formation of the Aggressor nation late in 1945. A brutal political police system soon silenced all opposition. By early 1946 a triumvirate of three men, popularly known as "the Trinity," gained absolute control of the Circle Trigon Party and of the Aggressor nation.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Immediately upon its establishment, Aggressor entered upon a well-balanced and carefully controlled period of intense development and organization of all resources and phases of national life; quickly gaining the immediate goal of national unity and relative self-sufficiency. In contrast to its neighbors, Aggressor was reasonably prosperous and its people happy and contented with the new government as it started to fulfill its initial promises. One advantage enjoyed by the new nation was that the bulk of its lands had escaped the destruction of war which had so severely impaired the national economy of other European nations. Aggressor was in a peculiar position in the world, as her able leaders had foreseen. Initially backed in secret by both the eastern and the western powers, Aggressor was alarmed at the closer and closer friendly relations between the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and feared united action on the part of these powers. Engaged in a race against time, she must be well established before the dull and war-weary former allies realized her true ambition and organized to put her down. Her leaders believed that she must strike before that day and the blow must be against her most powerful opponent, the United States.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Turning its attention from the devastated areas of Western Europe to the prosperous and unscathed lands of North America, Aggressor began plans in early 1946 for an invasion of the United States. Although the United States had emerged from the war as a strong military nation, its hasty and ill-advised demobilization, together with widespread internal disturbance and general war-weariness, convinced the Aggressor High Command that such a plan offered a reasonable chance of success if aided by a well-organized branch of the Circle Trigon Party within the United States, and by a skillful propaganda campaign.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In late 1946, Aggressor, aided by agents and sympathizers, seized the Antilles chain of islands and the Panama Canal.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://www.alternatewars.com/WW3/Trigons/Occupation.gif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In November an Aggressor expedition then passed through the Canal and landed on the coast of California. As the Aggressor Navy was inadequate to protect the supply line, the Aggressor troops were defeated. Quisling groups in the United States, however, assisted in arranging a peace in which Aggressor retained bases in the Caribbean area. Aggressor's determination to conquer the North American continent next resulted in a second campaign in the fall of 1947. The Aggressor Third Army overran portions of North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida in a large scale amphibious assault on the southeastern coast of the United States. After suffering a serious defeat this Aggressor force began an evacuation of troops while making a final stand in the Florida area. The Aggressor units which could not be evacuated were annihilated. However, individual soldiers, aided by Aggressor sympathizers, scattered over the entire United States and became members of and advisers to subversive groups.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In the meantime, Aggressor launched a combined amphibious and airborne invasion across the North Atlantic Ocean. By the winter of 1947 Aggressor held all of New England and the St. Lawrence River area, and had driven a wedge southwest through New York State to the general line BUFFALO-SCRANTON-ALBANY-NEW HAVEN.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">As the Aggressor nation continued to build up its military strength in the Caribbean, emphasis was placed on preparation and training for airborne operations. Meanwhile, subversive organizations of Aggressor sympathizers in the United States grew in size and number. The tempo of subversive incidents increased. The climax of the subversive movement was an open attack in the Tennessee-Kentucky area by a subversive organization known as the Green Brigade. The attack began in April of 1948 as a series of raids on the supplies and arms stored at Fort Campbell, Kentucky. The Green Brigade then captured the airfield and laid siege to the camp. As the United States launched an attack against these guerrilla forces, Aggressor Forces from the Caribbean executed a successful airborne landing in Tennessee. The United States Air Force succeeded in disrupting continued Aggressor air action and blocked the follow up air lift. The Aggressor airborne force was then annihilated and members of the Green Brigade immediately disappeared. The Circle Trigon Party again went underground. See figure 2 for Aggressor campaigns in the United States.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Concerned over the stubborn Aggressor defense of New England, and over the critical United States shipping losses in the Atlantic, the United States decided upon a limited attack against Aggressor Caribbean installations in the early spring of 1949. On 2 March, joint amphibious United States forces landed on the Island of Vieques, destroyed midget submarine pens there and at San Juan, Puerto Rico, and withdrew according to plan, after the successful completion of their mission. Immediately following this attack. Aggressor propagandists made much of the limited objective and rapid withdrawal of United States forces.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">As if in retaliation for the assault against Puerto Rico, Aggressor Caribbean forces executed an airborne invasion of the United States early in May 1949. The initial attack, preceded by general labor unrest and industrial sabotage throughout South-eastern United States, resulted in Aggressor seizure of Pope Air Force Base and the Fort Bragg (North Carolina) area. The United States Air Force soon gained air superiority but not until Aggessor had air-landed an entire corps. United States forces attacked at once, brought up reinforcements, and by mid-June had killed or captured the entire Aggressor force with the exception of the most important commanders and one elite regiment. Late in May 1949, when the Aggressor High Command realized that the Carolina campaign was doomed to failure, part of a large convoy—ostensibly en route to the Caribbean—broke off in mid-Atlantic, rounded Cape Horn, and headed for the Hawaiian Islands. Secrecy was maintained by a screen of submarines and carrier-based planes which destroyed approaching ships and aircraft without a trace. The small U. S. garrison and hastily-mobilized National Guard units put up stubborn resistance, chiefly on Oahu, but by 19 June Aggressor was in control of the entire archipelago. The United States immediately organized a joint amphibious western task force. This task force assaulted Oahu on 25 October and completely recaptured the islands by mid-November. Only a few submarines and key command personnel escaped destruction in an attempted last-minute, Aggressor evacuation.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The Aggressor High Command had realized for a long time that Alaska was one of the gateways to the United States, and that, while the Hawaiian Islands were in possession of Aggressor, a route was open to invade Alaska. Hence plans were made, and appropriate supplies were stockpiled on the island of Hawaii for an amphibious operation against Alaska. No definite date had been set for the operation, but when the United States counter-invasion plans of Hawaii became known, Aggressor decided that an Alaskan invasion would serve as a counterstroke that would render the northern flank of the United States vulnerable. On 4 October 1949, Aggressor Task force "Schnee" departed from Hilo, and made an amphibious landing in the vicinity of Anchorage, Alaska. By mid-February Aggressor units had advanced beyond Northway.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Taking advantage of interior lines of communications, United States forces again mounted a major raid on the island of Vieques lying just east of the Aggressor stronghold of Puerto Rico. Defensive forces were quickly overrun and the submarine base installations, which had been repaired after the raid of March 1949, were again demolished.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">As if in retaliation Aggressor mounted an airborne attack on the Fort Bragg, North Carolina area. United States Air Forces reacted swiftly, secured air superiority and cut in on the Aggressor aerial line of communication. A counterattack of two airborne divisions with strong aerial support quickly destroyed the invading forces which could no longer be supplied.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">I. Population</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">When first established, Aggressor had a population of 100,000,000. By 1949, with the acquisition of eastern France, western Germany, Belgium, Holland, and Luxembourg, Aggressor's population reached 150,000,000. Strong efforts have been adopted to increase the population by raising the normal birth rate. Because scientists, soldiers, and professional men of all types have been receiving preferential treatment, many have migrated from adjacent countries to Aggressor.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">II. Language and Religion</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Aggressor (based on Esperanto as modified by local usage) has been adopted as the official language. Although it has not fully supplanted the Spanish, French, German, Italian and Flemish of the local areas, it is expected to do so in the course of a few generations. Complete religious freedom is enjoyed throughout the Republic. Aggressor agents have infiltrated various religious organizations abroad to further their own national propaganda.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">III. Form of Government</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The real power in government is in the hands of the "Trinity": Martin Bormann (industrialist), Tito Farruchi (demagogue), and Pilar Cordoba (police chief). In theory, Bormann represents the Teutonic peoples, Farruchi the Italians and French, and Cordoba the Spanish and Arab peoples. Their authority appears to be equal. The Trinity coordinates the pro-Aggressor subversive activities of the Circle Trigon Party in other countries with the political and military activities of the Aggressor nation.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The government is completely totalitarian in form. Control is highly centralized at the top with a tendency towards bureaucracy. It enjoys the normal advantages and disadvantages accompanying totalitarianism. All phases of national life are directed toward a common end; the execution of the plans of the Trinity. On the other hand, initiative is rapidly declining among the rank and file of the people.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Government functions are marked by impressive ritual and an air of mystery. This has had a strong appeal to many classes of people in the country.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">IV. Industry</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Considerable emphasis has been placed upon development of national industry. With the factories of Bavaria and northern Italy as a nucleus, industry has been expanded and dispersed according to a well-conceived plan of national strategy. In this connection, the communication system has been revolutionized. The nation's war potential has been extensively developed. The development of atomic weapons is believed to be taking place, and a small stockpile of atomic bombs may be available by 1951. All industrial activity is closely coordinated with the needs of the armed forces. The addition of the industry of central Europe in late 1949 raise the industrial potential of Aggressor almost to the level of the United States.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">V. General (The Armed Forces)</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Immediately upon the formation of the Aggressor Republic, disbanded troops of many nations flocked to it and were utilized as a well-balanced, professional cadre for the armed forces. Conscription was inaugurated to build up a large trained reserve. Experienced military leadership, including the remnants of the Wehrmacht and the Junkers, was available and eager to accept employment; all were welcomed. Since these early days the armed forces have been rapidly expanded along sound lines. Control of all the armed forces has been vested in a Secretary for the Armed Forces. He and his staff constitute the Armed Forces High Command. The training of all components is extremely thorough and rigorous. A high standard of discipline is maintained; morale and esprit de corps are excellent, and the prestige of the armed forces is high. All troops are given extensive indoctrination in the principles of the Circle Trigon Party.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">VI. The Aggressor Army</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The Army, commanded by the Army High Command, is by far the largest of the armed forces. It is composed of three army groups, each numbering roughly 1,000,000 men. One army group is stationed in Southern France and Italy, one in Spain and Morocco, and the third in Belgium, Holland, Eastern France and Western Germany. Expeditionary forces are sent out from these three army groups for Aggressor operations in other parts of the globe. In addition, a fourth army group headquarters exists to train and control a replacement training army, and a peoples militia. In the event of invasion, this militia is to be integrated with the national police as a final reserve.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">VII. The Aggressor Navy</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The Navy, commanded by the Navy High Command, includes some ships of all combatant types plus amphibious and auxiliary types necessary to conduct distant amphibious operations of Corps size. This force includes several obsolete battleships, some modern battleships, a number of modern cruisers, a considerable number of destroyers and escort types, several aircraft carriers and a number of escort carriers. There are a large number of World War II type submarines and an undetermined number of ultramodern SS, capable of high submerged speeds. These units are organized into three operational fleets, corresponding to the area armies. Within the Navy there is also a Marine force trained to spearhead amphibious landings.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">VIII. The Aggressor Air Force</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The function of the Air Force High Command is to train and maintain the various types of air forces in the Aggressor Armed Forces. These are as follows:</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">a. Tactical Air Armies.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">b. The Long Range Air Force.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">c. The Troop Carrier Command.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">d. Fighter Units of the Home Air Defense Command.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Unlike its United States counterpart, the Aggressor Air Force High Command does not retain operational control of flying units. After an individual pilot or an organization has completed training, they are assigned to one of the four operational Air Forces listed above. The activities of the Air Force High Command are then limited to logistical and maintenance functions. The Air Force High Command exercises logistical functions through the Command Area Aviation Ground Service and maintenance functions through the Aircraft Maintenance Command.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">IX. Tactical Air Armies</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The tactical air units, comprising the bulk of Aggressor air, are trained, equipped, and maintained by the Air Force High Command. When these units are ready for the field they are assigned to one of three air armies. The tactical air armies are particularly designed for close support of ground operations. The organization, equipment and tactics of these units are described in Chapter IV.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">X. Other Air Forces</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">a. Long Range Air Force. The Air Force High Command trains, equips, and maintains a Long Range Air Force. This force, however, operates directly under the control of the Secretary for the Armed Forces. It is estimated that at the end of 1949 the Long Range Air Force included 500 medium bombers having an operational range of 5,000 statute miles.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">b. Troop Carrier Command. The Air Force High Command also trains, equips, and maintains a Troop Carrier Command. For operations in conjunction with airborne troops, units of the Troop Carrier Command serve directly under the Secretary for the Armed Forces. In time of war all civil aviation is placed under control of the Troop Carrier Command.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">c. Home Air Defense Command. This is the headquarters, directly under the Secretary for the Armed Forces, responsible for defense of all targets of enemy strategic air forces. Its combat power consists of fighter and antiaircraft units. The fighter units, estimated to include 1,000 jet fighter aircraft, are trained, equipped, and maintained by the Air Forces High Command. The antiaircraft units are trained, equipped, and maintained by the Army High Command. An extensive radar warning net covering all of the Aggressor homeland is under the Home Air Defense Command in all respects. This Command has supervision of all civilian air defense measures.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">XI. Aggressor Manpower</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The nation's manpower, including women, has been carefully registered and graded by mental and physical profiles. In general, the most intelligent male recruits are assigned to the armored force, the air force, the navy, the engineers, and to a lesser extent to the artillery. Infantry recruits are carefully selected for physical stamina and stolid temperament, fusilier units being favored. Women provide a high percentage of personnel throughout the medical corps and signal corps. In time of war they are assigned in large numbers to quartermaster and ordnance units, and to engineer labor battalions. Aggressor citizens whose loyalty to the state is questionable are not permitted to enter the armed forces. When such persons arrive at the age for induction into the service, they are sent to state labor camps in which they serve without pay for twice the normal induction period.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">XII. Partisans</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Members of the Circle Trigon Party not inducted into the Aggressor armed forces are trained in guerrilla warfare. In case of invasion of the Aggressor homeland, these Party members would form partisan groups behind the enemy lines for attack on the invader's communications. Party members outside the homeland receive varying amounts of instruction in guerrilla warfare designed to assist the Aggressor Army. Trigonist partisans within the homeland would be very effective but in other areas their effectiveness would vary. In some countries it would be insignificant.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">XIII. field manuals</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><a href="http://www.alternatewars.com/WW3/Trigons/FM30_102_1950.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">FM30-102: Handbook on Aggressor Military Forces</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><a href="http://www.alternatewars.com/WW3/Trigons/FM30_103_1951.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">FM30-103: Aggressor Order of Battle</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">XIV. videos and pictures</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><iframe allowfullscreen="1" frameborder="0" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/snCdEVIxXIs?wmode=transparent&start=0" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://www.surfacezero.com/g503/data/2267/fe765057d9a05271_large.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://www.surfacezero.com/g503/data/2267/e187b34d78edfaa6_large.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" />Read more: <a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/620/when-army-created-alternate-history#ixzz4WxUaoQyr" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #003399; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/620/when-army-created-alternate-history#ixzz4WxUaoQyr</a></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-27797102286589274252017-01-27T02:57:00.004-08:002017-01-27T02:57:45.014-08:00<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Preview of the War We Do Not Want<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://conelrad.com/images/colliers_10_27_1951_cvr.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Collier's Magazine, a american magazine on October 27th 1951 devoted a entire 130-page issue to narrate the events in a hypothetical Third World War, in a feature article entitled Preview of the War We Do Not Want - an Imaginary Account of Russia's defeat and Occupation, 1952-60. Twenty writers, including Edward R. Murrow, Arthur Koestler, Philip Wylie, Hal Boyle, and Walter Winchell, contributed to the article. The war, in which the United Nations is victorious over the Soviet Union, takes place from 1952 to 1955. Nuclear weapons are extensively used, but do not have the apocalyptic effects envisaged in other speculative scenarios.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The issue in question can be read here by following the link - </span><a href="http://www.unz.org/Pub/Colliers-1951oct27" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Collier's Magazine October 27th 1951<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Another link to the same issues can be read here - </span><a href="http://www.slideshare.net/AlbertYega/colliers-russias-defeat-occupation-1952-1960" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Collier's russia's defeat & occupation</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Overall plot of World War III</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In the scenario, Soviet and allied forces enter Yugoslavia in May 1952 to support an uprising organised by COMINTERN agents. After the Soviets refuse to leave, the United States and principal United Nations countries declare war. The US uses atomic bombs against Soviet strategic industrial complexes. Soviet forces then proceed to invade Germany, the Middle East, and Alaska. US forces are in retreat on all fronts, and Korea and Japan are evacuated. London, then Detroit, New York, and Hanford are hit with nuclear weapons.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In the following year a second salvo of Soviet bombs hit US cities. However, the US suffers fewer casualties than before, having built up its civil defence. UN forces eventually manage to contain invading Soviet forces in the different theatres of war. On July 22 Moscow is bombed by B-36s with nuclear weapons (witnessed by Murrow as an embedded journalist), in retaliation for a nuclear attack on Washington, D.C. The US turns to psychological warfare by emphasising that the UN is fighting for the liberation of the Russian people, and support is provided to guerrilla forces in Soviet satellite countries. A suicide task force of 10,000 US paratroopers destroy the last remaining Soviet nuclear stockpiles hidden in the Ural Mountains. Soviet forces are kept pinned down in Yugoslavia by resistance fighters.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In 1954, Lavrentiy Beriya becomes Soviet ruler; Stalin has mysteriously disappeared. Uprisings take place across the Soviet Union and satellite countries. UN forces push the Red Army back across Europe, and by year's end have reached Warsaw and the Ukrainian border. The Soviets are routed from Turkey and UN forces capture the Crimea. Vladivostok is seized by US Marines. Hostilities cease in the following year, and the Soviet Union plunges into chaos and internal revolt. The UN occupies parts of the Soviet Union under UNITOC, the United Nations Temporary Occupation Command.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Timeline of World War III</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">1952</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Assassination attempt on Marshal Tito's life, May lOth, precipitates Cominform-planned uprising in Yugoslavia. Troops from satellite nations of Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary, backed by Red Army, cross borders. Truman terms aggression "Kremlin inspired"; Reds call it "an internal matter."</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Third World War begins when Moscow, still insisting that uprising is "the will of the Yugoslav people," refuses to withdraw Red Army units. Stalin miscalculates risk: had believed U.S. would neither back Tito nor fight alone. U.S. is joined by principal UN nations in declaration of war.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Neutrals include Sweden, Ireland, Switzerland, Egypt, India and Pakistan.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Saturation A-bombing of U.S.S.R. begins. Avoiding completely population centers. West concentrates on legitimate military targets only. Principal objectives: industrial installations; oil, steel and A-bomb plants.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Communists throughout West begin sabotage campaign. Trained saboteurs open attacks in U.S.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">General Vassily Stalin, aviator son of Red dictator, becomes a UN prisoner of war.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Red Army, under vast air umbrella which outnumbers UN planes five to three, attacks across north German plain, in Baltic countries and through Middle East.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">UN troops, fighting for time, retreat on all fronts, suffering heavy losses.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">North American continent invaded when Red Army, in combined air-sea operation, lands in Alaska, occupying Nome and Little Diomede Island.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Reds A-bomb London and UN bases overseas.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Far East "Dunkerque" takes place when, under unremitting air and submarine attacks, U.S. occupation forces evacuate Korea for Japan. </span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">U.S. A-bombed for first time when Red air force hits Detroit, New York and A-bomb plant at Hanford (Washington). Civil defense proves inadequate.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Turning point in war's first phase reached when atomic artillery smashes enemy offensive on Christmas Day in Europe.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">1953</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">U.S. A-bombed for second time. Bombers hit Chicago, New York, Washington and Philadelphia. Red submarines fire atomic-headed missiles into Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Norfolk (Virginia) and Bremerton (Washington).</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Casualties greatly lessened by improved civil defense procedures.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">UN air forces finally achieve air superiority over battle fronts.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Psychological warfare begins to play important role; propaganda emphasizes that UN is fighting war of liberation for Russian people; leaflet raids and broadcasts warn Russian people to evacuate areas scheduled for attack.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Moscow A-bombed midnight, July 22d, by B-36s in retaliation for Red A bomb terror raid on Washington. Planes flying from U.S. bases destroy center of Moscow. Area of damage: 20 square miles.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Suicide task force lands behind U.S.S.R. borders, destroys Soviets' last remaining A-bomb stockpile in underground chambers of Ural Mountains. Of 10,000 paratroopers and airborne units, 10 per cent survive.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">UN Genera l Assembly issues momentous war-aims statement known as "Denver Declaration."</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Underground forces in satellite countries receive arms and materials in UN plane-drops; highly trained guerrilla fighters parachute into U.S.S.R. to aid resistance movements and destroy specific targets.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Severest rationing since beginning of war introduced in U.S.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Yugoslav guerrilla fighters begin to tie down large numbers of Red troops.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">1954</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">A captured Soviet genera l reports disappearance of Stalin, reveals that MVD (secret police) Chief Beria is new Red dictator.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Uprisings take place in U.S.S.R. and satellite nations. UN parachutes Russian emigres into Soviet Union to aid dissident groups.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">UN offensive begins on all fronts as West at last gains initiative.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Red Army gradually retreats, then disintegrates under onslaught of UN air and ground forces.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Three Red generals desert to UN forces.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">UN armor spearhead captures Warsaw, reaches Pripet Marshes in Poland.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Another armored column crosses U.S.S.R. border into Ukraine.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">UN forces clear Asiatic Turkey and cross border into Crimea.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Marines, in combined air-sea operation, capture and occupy Vladivostok.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">1955</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Hostilities cease as U.S.S.R. degenerates into a state of chaos and internal revolt.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">UN forces begin occupation duties in satellite nations and Ukraine.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">UNTTOC -United Nations Temporary Occupation Command—set up in Moscow.</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" />Read more: <a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/627/preview-war#ixzz4WxUUM4cM" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #003399; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/627/preview-war#ixzz4WxUUM4cM</a></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-69842823730157695342017-01-27T02:57:00.002-08:002017-01-27T02:57:25.109-08:00<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">From Life magazine published on November 19th 1945 comes a article with nine illustrations (six illustrations in this thread) about a future atomic war which depicts of what nuclear war in the future will look like. It was based on a report by General “Hap” Arnold, the chief of the Army Air Forces during World War II and the later founder of Project RAND.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">A good link with the illustrations can be read on this website: </span><a href="http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2013/04/05/the-36-hour-war-life-magazine-1945/" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Restricted Data</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;"> and this one: "</span><a href="http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~ina22/+301/$301-text-36hw-a.html" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">The 36-Hour War</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">"<a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/637/world-war-iii-hour-1948#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">The 36</a>-Hour War" - part I</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">CAPTION: <a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/637/world-war-iii-hour-1948#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">The 36</a>-Hour War begins with the atomic bombardment of key United States cities. Here a shower of white-hot enemy rockets falls on Washington, DC.</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">This week General Henry H. Arnold, commanding officer of the Army Air Forces, published his third formal report to the Secretary of War. The report was not only a history of Air Forces activities at the end of the late war but a warning of future wars. Said the general: "In the past, the United States has shown a dangerous willingness to be caught in a position of having to start a war with equipment and doctrines used at the end of a preceding war.... Military Air Power should...be measured to a large extent by the ability of the existing Air Force to absorb in time of emergency...new ideas and techniques."</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The Army Air Forces, said General Arnold, were fully prepared to absorb new ideas: "We can run a large air operation for the sole purpose of delivering one or two atomic bombs....When improved antiaircraft defenses make this impracticable, we should be ready with a weapon of the general type of the German V-2 rocket, having greatly improved range and precision...."</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Such weapons as these, in the hands of other nations as well as the United States, would make possible the ghastliest of all wars. Hostilities would begin with the explosion of atomic bombs in cities like London, Paris, Moscow or Washington (below). The destruction caused by the bombs would be so swift and terrible that the war might well be decided in 36 hours. The illustrations on these pages show how such a war might be fought if it came.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">But General Arnold did not suggest that improved weapons were the only safeguard of the United States. it would be better, he said, to use bombs for peace now rather than for war later, possibly by using them as a power to enforce decisions of the United Nations Organization's Security Council.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt=" " src="http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~ina22/+301/+301-36-a.gif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">"<a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/637/world-war-iii-hour-1948#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">The 36</a>-Hour War" - part II</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The start of another war, said General Arnold, might come with shattering speed: "With present equipment an enemy air power can, without warning, pass over all formerly visualized barriers and can deliver devastating blows at our population centers and our industrial, economic or governmental heart even before surface forces can be deployed."</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In the panorama posted below, looking eastward from 3,000 miles above the Pacific, the United States is shown as it might appear a very few years from now, with a great shower of enemy rockets falling on 13 key United States centers. Within a few seconds atomic bombs have exploded over New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Boulder Dam, New Orleans, Denver, Washington, Salt Lake City, Seattle, Kansas City and Knoxville. One bomb (second from left) has been exploded high above the earth by a United States defensive rocket. In the cities more than 10,000,000 people have been instantly killed by the bombs. The enemy's purpose is not to destroy industry, which is an objective only in long old-fashioned wars like the last one, but to paralyze the United States by destroying its people.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The rockets above, white-hot from traveling part of their journey through the atmosphere at three miles a second, have in a little more than an hour soared 1,800 miles up and some 8,000 miles around the earth from equatorial Africa. There an enemy of the United States has built its rocket-launching sites quickly and secretly in the jungle to escape detection by the UNO Security Council. In their flight the rockets coast most of the way through empty space, where the stars are out at noon. The thin luminous band on the horizon is the earth's atmosphere.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt=" " src="http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~ina22/+301/+301-36-bc.gif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">"<a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/637/world-war-iii-hour-1948#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">The 36</a>-Hour War" - part III</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">"Radar," said General Arnold, "is an outstanding contribution to the effectiveness of an air force. It is a device which enormously extends...human vision." In the picture above, radar has been applied to the war of the rockets. A radar beam of enormous power sweeps the sky so that even objects thousands of miles in space send back radio echoes. The echoes are then translated into images on the luminous screen. If such a radar were in use, it would give the United States about 30 minutes to get ready for the attack shown on these pages.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">But even 30 minutes is too little time for men to control the weapons of an atomic war. Radar would detect enemy rockets, plot their course and feed data to electronic calculators in defensive rockets. These would then be launched in a matter of seconds to intercept the attackers.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Radar, however would at best be a spotty defense in future wars. Like human sight, it extends only to the horizon. Low-flying robot planes like the German buzz-bomb might evade it more effectively than high-flying rockets. And radar would be no proof at all against time bombs of atomic explosive which enemy agents might assemble in the United States.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~ina22/+301/+301-36-d.gif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">"<a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/637/world-war-iii-hour-1948#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">The 36</a>-Hour War" - part IV</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Said General Arnold: "Although there now appear to be insurmountable difficulties in an active defense against future atomic projectiles similar to the German V-2 but armed with atomic explosives, this condition should only intensify our efforts to discover an effective means of defense." The only defense now conceivable against a rocket, once it is in flight, is illustrated above. It is another rocket, fired like an antiaircraft shell at a point where it will meet its enemy. Once it had been launched, such a rocket might detect the attacking machine with radar and make its own corrections. When it came near the enemy rocket, it could be exploded by radio proximity fuse, a development of World War II. But inevitably it would miss some of the time.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Shown below is the instant before the two rockets meet. The enemy rocket, coasting through space with its fuel exhausted, is beginning to fall toward the United States. The defensive rocket, racing upwards under full power, is incandescent from the friction of its short passage through the earth's atmosphere. When the two collide, the atomic explosion will appear to observers on the earth as a brilliant new star.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~ina22/+301/+301-36-e.gif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">"<a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/637/world-war-iii-hour-1948#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">The 36</a>-Hour War" - part V</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Concerning other possible defenses in an atomic war, General Arnold said: "Three types of defense against an atomic bomb can be conceived: First, we should attempt to make sure that nowhere in the world are atomic bombs being made clandestinely; second, we should devise every possible active defense against an atomic bomb attack, once launched, and third, we might redesign our country for minimum vulnerability...." But the United States , he continued, "...must recognize that real security against atomic weapons in the visible future will rest on our ability to take immediate offensive action with overwhelming force. It must be apparent to a potential aggressor than an attack on the United States would be immediately followed by an immensely devastating air-atomic attack on him."</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">On these two pages is a combination of two of General Arnold's ideas: decentralization and counterattack. This cross section shows an underground rocket-launching site and atomic bomb factory. It is completely self-contained except for raw materials, which are assembled in big stockpiles. Its workers live underground near their machines, secure against anything except a direct atomic bomb hit or an airborne invasion. Altogether the United States might have several dozen such units, all independent so that the destruction or capture of one would not affect the others. At the beginning of </span><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/637/world-war-iii-hour-1948#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">the 36</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">-hour war the US has not yet decentralized its entire population, an operation which might cost $250,000,000,000, but only the absolute essentials of national defense.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">At the moment illustrated, the United States has sent its first offensive rocket of the war toward an enemy city, just one hour after the enemy attack.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~ina22/+301/+301-36-fg.gif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">"<a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/637/world-war-iii-hour-1948#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">The 36</a>-Hour War" - part VI</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Said General Arnold: "Airborne troops have become one of the most effective units of a modern fighting force....Fully equipped airborne task forces will be able to strike at far distant points and will be totally supplied by air."</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In spite of the apocalyptic destruction caused by its atomic bombs, an enemy nation would have to invade the United States to win the war. The enemy's airborne troops would be equipped with light rocket weapons of great destructive power (above, rear) and devices such as goggles which make troop-directing infrared signals visible. The enemy soldier above is repairing a telephone line in a small United States town.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">By the time enemy troops have landed, the United States has suffered terrifying damage. Some 40,000,000 people have been killed and all cities of more than 50,000 population have been leveled. San Francisco's Market Street, Chicago's Michigan Boulevard and New York's Fifth Avenue are merely lanes through the debris. But as it is destroyed the United States is fighting back. The enemy airborne troops are wiped out. United States rockets lay waste the enemy's cities. United States airborne troops successfully occupy his country. The United States wins the atomic war.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~ina22/+301/+301-36-h+i.gif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" />Read more: <a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/637/world-war-iii-hour-1948#ixzz4WxUIlWwb" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #003399; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/637/world-war-iii-hour-1948#ixzz4WxUIlWwb</a></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-19623217819112655582017-01-27T02:54:00.001-08:002017-01-27T02:54:51.398-08:00<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">What if: Operation Sealion, summary of an exercise held in 1974.<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span><img alt="" src="http://www.jmarkpowell.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Paper.png" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In 1974 a major wargame conducted at Royal Military Academy Sandhurst in 1974 was held. Its aim was find out what might have happened had Nazi Germany launched </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea_Lion" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Operation Sea Lion</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">, their planned invasion of southeast England during World War II, in September 1940. The wargame was organized by the Daily Telegraph and Dr Paddy Griffith from the Department of War Studies at Sandhurst. The British umpires were Air Chief Marshal Christopher Foxley-Norris, Rear Admiral Teddy Gueritz and Major General Glyn Gilbert. The German umpires were General Adolf Galland (air), Admiral Friedrich Ruge (naval) and General Heinrich Trettner (land). After the game's conclusion, the umpires unanimously concluded that the invasion was a devastating defeat for the German invasion force.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://www.jmarkpowell.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Game.gif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Scenario</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The game was played using a scale model of southeast England, the English Channel, and northern France. Available troops and resources were based on known plans from both sides, and weather conditions were based on contemporary British Admiralty records that had, until then, never been published.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Assumptions</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">- The German military had taken until September to assemble the shipping necessary for a Channel crossing</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">- The Luftwaffe had not established air supremacy.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">- The Luftwaffe had continued to bomb London.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">- The Germans had only converted river barges available as transport ships.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">- The invasion fleet was largely unmolested in the crossing.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Orbats of the British and German forces</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Hitler's </span><a href="http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~warden/BlogFreeDownloads/Sealion/SealionDirectiveNo16.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Directive No.16</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Hitler's </span><a href="http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~warden/BlogFreeDownloads/Sealion/SealionDirectiveNo17.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Directive No.17</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Kriegsmarine – </span><a href="http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~warden/BlogFreeDownloads/Sealion/SealionKMVessels@ports.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">List of Vessels at Embarkation Ports</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Kriegsmarine – </span><a href="http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~warden/BlogFreeDownloads/Sealion/SealionKMVesselsconverted&collected.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">List of Vessels converted and collected in the designated assembly areas for Operation Sealion</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Kriegsmarine – </span><a href="http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~warden/BlogFreeDownloads/Sealion/SealionKMVesselsavailable.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">List of Vessels available for Operation Sealion</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Kriegsmarine – </span><a href="http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~warden/BlogFreeDownloads/Sealion/SealionKMIntel%20onRN.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Intelligence Report on the Royal Navy</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Kriegsmarine – </span><a href="http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~warden/BlogFreeDownloads/Sealion/SealionKMFleetList.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Fleet List</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Royal Navy – </span><a href="http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~warden/BlogFreeDownloads/Sealion/SealionRNIntelonKM.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Intelligence Report on German Navy</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Royal Navy – </span><a href="http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~warden/BlogFreeDownloads/Sealion/SealionRNFleetList.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Fleet List</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Invasion timeline (September 22nd 1940 to September 28th 1940)</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="https://www.warhistoryonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/1b15decb97a7e442d17245363ff90a02_L-577x640.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">22nd September – morning</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The first wave of a planned 330,000 men hit the beaches at dawn. Elements of 9 divisions landed between Folkestone and Rottingdean (near Brighton). In addition 7th FJ Div landed at Lympne to take the airfield.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The invasion fleet suffered minor losses from MTBs during the night crossing, but the RN had already lost one CA and three DDs sunk, with one CA and two DDs damaged, whilst sinking three German DDs. Within hours of the landings which overwhelmed the beach defenders, reserve formations were despatched to Kent. Although there were 25 divisions in the UK, only 17 were fully equipped, and only three were based in Kent, however the defence plan relied on the use of mobile reserves and armoured and mechanised brigades were committed as soon as the main landings were identified.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Meanwhile the air battle raged, the Luftwaffe flew 1200 fighter and 800 bomber sorties before 1200 hrs. The RAF even threw in training planes hastily armed with bombs, but the Luftwaffe were already having problems with their short ranged Me 109s despite cramming as many as possible into the Pas de Calais.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">22nd – 23rd September</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The Germans had still not captured a major port, although they started driving for Folkestone. Shipping unloading on the beaches suffered heavy losses from RAF bombing raids and then further losses at their ports in France.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The U-Boats, Luftwaffe and few surface ships had lost contact with the RN, but then a cruiser squadron withsupporting DDs entered the Channel narrows and had to run the gauntlet of long range coastal guns, E-Boats and 50 Stukas. Two CAs were sunk and one damaged. However a diversionary German naval sortie from Norway was completely destroyed and other sorties by MTBS and DDs inflicted losses on the shipping milling about in the Channel. German shipping losses on the first day amounted to over 25% of their invasion fleet, especially the barges, which proved desperately unseaworthy.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">23rd Sept dawn – 1400 hrs.</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The RAF had lost 237 planes out 1048 (167 fighters and 70 bombers), and the navy had suffered enough losses such that it was keeping its BBs and CVs back, but large forces of DDs and CAs were massing. Air recon showed a German buildup in Cherbourg and forces were diverted to the South West.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The German Navy were despondant about their losses, especially as the loss of barges was seriously dislocating domestic industry. The Army and Airforce commanders were jubilant however, and preperations for the transfer of the next echelon continued along with the air transport of 22nd Div, despite Luftwaffe losses of 165 fighters and 168 bombers. Out of only 732 fighters and 724 bombers these were heavy losses. Both sides overestimated losses inflicted by 50%.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The 22nd Div airlanded successfully at Lympne, although long range artillery fire directed by a stay-behind commando group interdicted the runways. The first British counterattacks by 42nd Div supported by an armoured brigade halted the German 34th Div in its drive on Hastings. 7th Panzer Div was having difficulty with extensive anti-tank obstacles and assault teams armed with sticky bombs etc. Meanwhile an Australian Div had retaken Newhaven (the only German port), however the New Zealand Div arrived at Folkestone only to be attacked in the rear by 22nd Airlanding Div. The division fell back on Dover having lost 35% casualties.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Sep 23rd 1400 – 1900 hrs</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Throughout the day the Luftwaffe put up a maximum effort, with 1500 fighter and 460 bomber sorties, but the RAF persisted in attacks on shipping and airfields. Much of this effort was directed for ground support and air resupply, despite Adm Raeders request for more aircover over the Channel. The Home Fleet had pulled out of air range however, leaving the fight in the hands of 57 DDs and 17 CAs plus MTBs. The Germans could put very little surface strength against this. Waves of DDs and CAs entered the Channel, and although two were sunk by U-Boats, they sank one U-Boat in return and did not stop. The German flotilla at Le Havre put to sea (3 DD, 14 E-Boats) and at dusk intercepted the British, but were wiped out, losing all their DDs and 7 E-Boats.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The Germans now had 10 divisions ashore, but in many cases these were incomplete and waiting for their second echelon to arrive that night. The weather was unsuitable for the barges however, and the decision to sail was referred up the chain of command.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">23rd Sep 1900 – Sep 24th dawn</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The Fuhrer Conference held at 1800 broke out into bitter inter-service rivalry – the Army wanted their second echelon sent, and the navy protesting that the weather was unsuitable, and the latest naval defeat rendered the Channel indefensible without air support. Goring countered this by saying it could only be done by stopped the terror bombing of London, which in turn Hitler vetoed. The fleet was ordered to stand by.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The RAF meanwhile had lost 97 more fighters leaving only 440. The airfields of 11 Group were cratered ruins, and once more the threat of collapse, which had receded in early September, was looming. The Luftwaffe had lost another 71 fighters and 142 bombers. Again both sides overestimated losses inflicted, even after allowing for inflated figures.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">On the ground the Germans made good progress towards Dover and towards Canterbury, however they suffered reverses around Newhaven when the 45th Div and Australians attacked. At 2150 Hitler decided to launch the second wave, but only the short crossing from Calais and Dunkirk. By the time the order reached the ports, the second wave could not possibly arrive before dawn. The 6th and 8th divisions at Newhaven, supplied from Le Havre, would not be reinforced at all.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Sep 24th dawn – Sep 28th</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The German fleet set sail, the weather calmed, and U-Boats, E-Boats and fighters covered them. However at daylight 5th destroyer flotilla found the barges still 10 miles off the coast and tore them to shreds. The Luftwaffe in turn committed all its remaining bombers, and the RAF responded with 19 squadrons of fighters. The Germans disabled two CAs and four DDs, but 65% of the barges were sunk. The faster steamers broke away and headed for Folkestone, but the port had been so badly damaged that they could only unload two at a time.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The failure on the crossing meant that the German situation became desperate. The divisions had sufficient ammunition for 2 to 7 days more fighting, but without extra men and equipment could not extend the bridgehead. Hitler ordered the deployment on reserve units to Poland and the Germans began preparations for an evacuation as further British attacks hemmed them in tighter. Fast steamers and car ferries were assembled for evacuation via Rye and Folkestone.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Of 90,000 troops who landed on 22nd September, only 15,400 returned to France, the rest were killed or captured.</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" />Read more: <a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/1045/operation-sealion-summary-exercise-held?page=1#ixzz4WxTiiD26" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #003399; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/1045/operation-sealion-summary-exercise-held?page=1#ixzz4WxTiiD26</a></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-82751088127037226332017-01-27T02:35:00.002-08:002017-01-27T02:35:29.643-08:00<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/631/1935-scenario-invasion-america" target="_blank">The Invasion of America, 19?? (1935 Scenario for Invasions via Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean)</a></span><br />
<br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Even before WWII, the American military and variously-aligned think-tank subsidiaries had for years hypothesized United States invasion scenarios, these where know as the </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_color-coded_war_plans" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">United States color-coded war plans</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">. Lesser known are the United States military’s preparation for the invasion of America. </span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><img alt="" src="http://longstreet.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83542d51e69e20120a7a3213b970b-pi" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">This two-page spread was published by Fortune Magazine in September 1935 and it was undoubtedly generated by a number of causes, not the least of which was the rearming of Nazi Germany, which could theoretically cause some amount of concern in semi-fortress America. It was also an opportunity for Chief of Staff </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_MacArthur" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">General Douglas MacArthur</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;"> to whip up a little hell in Congress for the federal government to give the military some more money so that there was more to the “fortress” part of America than two oceans. </span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Basically the plan seems to call for a standing, ready army of specialist forces that were agile and highly trained, a large network, of anti-aircraft batteries and detection areas, and of course a large buildup of the Army Air Force. </span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The most prominent feature (besides the black invasion routes) are the terribly antiquated (even for 1936?) depictions of coastal defense canons. Perhaps this was disingenuous to include them with such flair, what with the main point of the article lending itself towards air invasion, but there they are, protecting the American coastline from a ripping adventure from the sea. </span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">But as we can see the successful invasion routes are coming from odd places—from Alaska, Canada, the Caribbean) against which the United States seemingly had no defense. This was especially true in the Pacific Northwest (“here defense system is weak”) where America was entirely susceptible to attack and invasion “from army basing in Alaska”. The rest of the west coast didn’t fair so well, though the only other direct threat was from “25,000 able-bodied male Japanese…Californians suppose they have secret arms and drill at night in dark halls”.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The southwestern and southern California areas were relatively secure, except in the case of an enemy capturing Mexico; then, “an attack here would almost certainly be launched, in conjunction with one against San Antonio”. I guess there would be long intrigue, much preparation and enormous effort to attack and secure Mexico, and I’m assuming that the thinkers behind constructing this map assumed that the U.S. would be doing nothing during this prolonged period of time. </span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">map showing attacks on the West coast of America</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><img alt="" src="http://longstreet.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83542d51e69e20120a7a3225e970b-pi" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" />Map showing attacks on the middle of the United states<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://longstreet.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83542d51e69e2012876a5a4b4970c-pi" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The attack on America in the Gulf would ostensibly come from Mexico and “an enemy basing in the Caribbean”, with a central interest in Birmingham and Norfolk. But the main thrust coming to the United states from unnamed horribleness would be coming through the St. Lawrence and points east in Canada, swooping down on Lake Champlain, the Mohawk Valley, Troy, Buffalo and Detroit. I know that there were bigger industrial concerns in these places in 1936 than there are now, but, well, my god there would be better places to begin an attack on the U.S. than from Montreal and Toronto.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In all of this I see that the industrial northeast is left alone, save for a “feint” attack to dislodge resources and attention away from the movement against the Virginia coast. There’s the navy yard and industry and shipping and etc. there, but it would seem a terrible waste to attack here rather than a much juicer and more northerly series of prizes. </span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Map showing attacks on the East coast of America<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://longstreet.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83542d51e69e2012876a5a5e4970c-pi" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" />Read more: <a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/631/1935-scenario-invasion-america#ixzz4WxOnkMBF" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #003399; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/631/1935-scenario-invasion-america#ixzz4WxOnkMBF</a></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-16031605920705784472017-01-27T02:33:00.002-08:002017-01-27T02:33:34.873-08:00<a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/1038/battle-atlantic-type-xxi" target="_blank">What if: Battle of Atlantic and the Type XXI </a><br />
<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt=" " src="http://subart.net/type21.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">With more hope than sense, Germany had more than 1,900 Type XXI and Type XXIII submarines under construction or on order on the last day of the European war.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The whole point about the XXI was that it was invisible to radar. The 10 cm radar sets available in 1943 had a very hard time picking up the large ball valve snorkel head of the XXI. The smaller T-valve heads which were in development could not be seen by 1943 radar and were very hard to find with 1945 radar. The XXI was virtually invisible on the march.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The 300 U-boat scenario could not have won the war. It was simply not feasible at the time when it could have won the Battle of the Atlantic (before 1941) and it was inadequate to win once it was feasible (1941).</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">If you look at the constraints put on U-boat production in the 1930s, there is no way to get to 300 U-boats in 1939 or 1940. Under the treaty of Versailles, Germany was not allowed any submarines, so the Germans did some U-boat design work for other countries during the 1920s and early 1930s to keep up with the state of the art. Hitler was afraid of various treaty obligations, so he waited until 1935 to build his first small U-boats which were almost assembled from kits. The first Type II was launched is June 1935 and 13 more followed until the end of the year. Production peaked in 1936 with 10 Type II, 2 Type I and 9 Type VIIA. A single Type VIIA was launched in 1937.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The U-boat building program was initially hampered by the British-German naval treaty which in 1937 allowed Germany 31,500 standard tonnes of U-boats. The standard tonne was related to the actual displacement. The Type II had 250 standard tonnes, the Type VII was 500, the later Type IX was 740 and the Type I was 712, which gives a total U-boat fleet of 12,424 standard tonnes in mid 1937. In addition, there were 8 Type IX A and 11 Type VIIB under construction or ordered totaling another 11,420 standard tonnes. The make up of the remaining 7600 tonnes were hotly disputed in mid 1937. Doenitz wanted more Type VII and the admirals wanted more long range fleet boats, the Type IX.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The tonnage problem was largely solved when further negotiation with Britain at the end of 1938 increased the German tonnage to 70,000 standard tons, although this was to be done in stages over several years. This meant that Germany would be limited to a fleet of about 120 - 150 U-boats, depending on type mix, on reaching the final stage some time around 1943. Plan Z called for 174 U-boats at the end of 1943, which was already over the limit.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">On September 1, 1939, Germany had 57 U-boats in operation: 2 Type I, 30 Type II, 10 VII A, 8 VII B and 7 IX which totaled 23,100 standard tons. This was well below the 1937 allowed maximum and can be taken as a clear sign that Hitler was not expecting a war with Britain in 1939. Germany produced 7 more U-boats in 1939 and 54 in 1940, with losses of 35 during that period.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">If the Germans had used every loophole in the naval treaty with Britain and stretched things to the breaking point, they may have had around 90 U-boats in September 1939 and maybe as many as 150 by end 1940. This would have been most unpleasant for the British, but it would not have been decisive. In order to get the required 300 U-boats by end 1940, the shipyards would have had to set the stage for flat out production already in 1937/38 at a time the tonnage extension was not yet negotiated. Hitler would only have authorized this clear breach of the treaty if he had known he would have to fight the British when he attacked Poland. If he had known that, I am not at all sure he would have invaded Poland in 1939.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">If you turn this around and assume the Germans more or less stick to the naval treaty through 1939, bend the rules in 1940 and cheat in 1941, then they get to the 300 U-boats some time in the second half of 1941. Note this was not in Plan Z. Starting the war in Sept./Oct. 1941 has all sorts of advantages, but lets stick to U-boats. If we look at potential British naval rearmament scenarios we already have a problem because the invasion of rest Czechoslovakia historically started serious British rearmament. In order to keep the British quiet, this March 1939 invasion would have to be postponed, say to spring 1941 or even to coincide with the invasion of Poland. In our scenario, British intelligence will probably pick up a violation of the treaty some time in 1941 at the latest. Note the Germans are already technically in violation of the treaty timetable in 1940. Thus the British are probably making adjustments to their ASW investments by spring/summer 1941. Also note they have developed the cavity magnetron by now.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The shipping losses in the first 6 months of this scenario would be dramatic. If we scale up the historic losses to 300 U-boats, the British lose around 8 million tons of merchant shipping which was around 20% of the available western fleet (estimated at 40 million tons) in the first 6 months of the war. Note the total loss would be higher since we are not considering losses due to surface ships, airplanes and other Axis countries. Historically a force of 20 - 25 ocean going U-boats sank around 800,000 tons from Sept 1939 through Feb. 1940. In our scenario the ocean going fleet would be about 10 times bigger. One can argue that the sinking efficiency of such a large U-boat fleet would be less than for a fleet of 20 - 25 U-boats, but even so, the losses would be dramatic. Also, if we apply the same U-boat loss rate per million tons sunk, then we get to around 100 U-boats lost between Sept. 1941 and Feb. 1942, hardly a cheap victory. Historically, the best U-boat statistics were achieved in the spring and summer of 1940 when the loss rate was less than 5 U-boats per million tons sunk and the efficiency was averaging around 10,000 tons sunk per U-boat per month. This was the time the U-boats had their act together, but the British did not. By 1941 the efficiency was below 2,000 tons/month and the U-boat losses were back to 1939 levels.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Under the postulated conditions, the British get their ASW act together rather faster than they did in 1940 so German losses start increasing instead of decreasing. On the other hand, German production would be over 200 U-boats per year, compared to only 54 in 1940. Let us assume the shipping loss rate continues on as in the first 6 months and the U-boat losses increase slightly. The end result is another 8 million tons sunk and say 120 U-boats lost from March - August 1942, so the size of the U-boat fleet is barely keeping even. This would be the optimistic version. It is also quiet possible that the efficiency goes down in the second 6 months. In any event, it is unlikely that more than 15 million tons are sunk in the first year with a loss of around 200 - 250 U-boats. Historically almost 19 million tons were lost to end 1942 due to all causes. Obviously the loss of say 12 - 15 million tons of merchant shipping in the first year will have a much bigger effect than losing 19 million tons over 3 1/3 years. It may have been enough to throw Britain out of the war or it may not have been.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Once we reach the fall of 1942, the U-boat are in a very similar position as they were historically. At that time efficiency was around 2,000 tons/month and losses were around 20 U-boats per million tons, a no win situation, and the situation could only get worse.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The bottom line on the 300 U-boats is that they could realistically have been available at the beginning of the war assuming the war starts in Sept./Oct. 1941. These 300 U-boats would have caused massive losses in the first year, at massive cost to themselves, and then found themselves in a losing scenario because of technical deficiencies. It is possible, but not likely that they decide the war in that first year.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Now assume the XXI project is two years ahead of itself. This is not a simple premise since the 1943 XXI would not be the same as the 1945 XXI which was the product of the prevailing chaotic conditions. The workmanship would be better and the mess with the hydraulic system would probably not have happened since the 1943 XXI would still have used electric motors. It would have been a higher quality boat with a lot less problems. Further, the crew training program would have been undisturbed by enemy ASW in the Baltic. Also not that snorkel technology would have to be 2 years ahead of itself, so there was scope for a small, radar invisible T-valve snorkel down the road.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">What would have happened if about 100 of these 1943 XXI had been operational by the summer of 1943? They would have sunk a lot of ships and would probably have torn up the odd convoy. If we assume a production of 20 XXI/month and a loss rate of 10 - 15 per million tons sunk, we wind up being able to sink 1.3 - 2 million tons per month and still keep up the number of U-boats in the field. The loss rate of 10 - 15 per million tons is reasonable when one considers the way the XXI would operate. It would be invisible to radar since it never surfaces and the snorkel head is very hard to find, so losses while enroute to station would be minimal. It carried 23 torpedoes and had a fast reload system which would have allowed at least two attacks on a convoy before being found. So the XXI gets in something like 6 kills with 12 torpedoes before it has to dive away. With some luck, they could get off 18 torpedoes which would give around 9 kills. A single XXI attack would result in the sinking of 30,000 - 50,000 tons and the XXI probably has an even chance to get away. Note it can run for 11 hours at 10 knots, which is more than adequate for keeping up with a slow convoy. So far we are working with standard torpedoes, no Lerche.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The big problem with winning the Battle of the Atlantic becomes finding the convoys. The XXI was capable of finding its own targets out to a distance of around 30 NM using sonar and it could probably hear a battle 60 or even 90 NM away. The best way to use them would have been under radio silence for the whole voyage and that would have been the end of ULTRA. However, it is doubtful that Doenitz would have done that. He would most likely have continued on with all the chit chat, although that may have tipped him off to ULTRA since a lot of XXI would have survived the attempts to sink them enroute and also they would have picked up the attempts to reroute convoys. I would think that given a year, Doenitz would have found ways to minimize the effect of both HF-DF and ULTRA. Since the XXI could have operated in a high threat area, it could have operated close to the western approaches and picked up its targets relatively easily.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">This does not answer the question of how many ships get sunk. In order to win the Battle of the Atlantic, the objective would have had to be 15 - 20 million tons per year, which was Allied production plus a modest reduction in the total pool. Historically, the U-boats sank 5.8 million tons in 1942, their best year, out of total Allied losses of 8.2 million tons. The XXI would have had to manage about 3 times that, rather unlikely given only the XXI. If we throw in wire guided torpedoes like Lerche, the numbers start to look better since the XXI can now bite back hard against pursuing ships. And so we find ourselves on that slippery slope of “What ifs”.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The XXI by itself in 1943 would most likely not have resulted in a draw or a German win, but in a longer war. However, it was a vital ingredient in any German draw/win scenario. The other vital ingredients were an earlier appearance of jet aircraft, notably the Me 262, and the death of Hitler by 1943. With the Me262 in control of the air over the Reich in 1943, the XXI doing major damage in the Atlantic and the generals running the war without Hitler’s interference, a draw was quite possible. In this sort of scenario, the Americans would have had a tough time delivering an atomic bomb in the face of German air superiority.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-43382218043393420962017-01-27T02:32:00.001-08:002017-01-27T02:32:47.339-08:00<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/1051/operation-unthinkable-churchill-start-world" target="_blank">What if: Operation Unthinkable, Churchill’s plan to start World War III</a></span><br />
<b><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></b><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><img alt="" src="https://duchyofmaps.files.wordpress.com/2015/06/19450522-operationunthinkable-02.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">On May 8, 1945, as people everywhere celebrated the end of World War II, one gloomy figure was planning to start World War III. The ink had barely dried on Germany’s surrender document when British Prime Minister Winston Churchill asked his War Cabinet to draw up a plan to invade the Soviet Union.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The gobsmacked generals were asked to devise means to “impose upon Russia the will of the United States and the British Empire”. Churchill assured them the invasion would be led by the United States and supported by the defeated German Army.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Churchill’s belligerence was due to several factors. In Winston’s War, Max Hastings writes Churchill’s satisfaction at seeing the downfall of the Nazis was “almost entirely overshadowed” by Russian victories in Eastern Europe.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">By 1945, the USSR was vastly stronger and Britain a lot weaker than Churchill had anticipated. As he remarked at the Yalta Conference in February 1945: “On one hand the big Russian bear, on the other the great American elephant, and between them the poor little British donkey.”</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Secondly, Churchill’s stance against the Soviets hardened after he came to know about the success of the American atomic bomb programme. According to Alan Brooke, Britain’s Chief of Army Staff, Churchill told him at the Potsdam Conference in July 1945: “We can tell the Russians if they insist on doing this or that, well we can just blot out Moscow, then Stalingrad, then Kiev, then Sevastopol.”</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Finally, following Moscow’s barring of British representatives from Prague, Vienna and Berlin, as well as Stalin’s decision to paint Poland red, the British leader’s misery magnified.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Thinking the Unthinkable</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Asked to prepare for war just days after the end of the bloodiest conflict in history, the British generals thought the Prime Minister had really lost it. Brooke wrote in his diary: “Winston gives me the feeling of already longing for another war.”</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The generals drew up a plan, appropriately codenamed Operation Unthinkable (</span><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20101116152301/http://www.history.neu.edu/PRO2/" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">full report "Operation Unthinkable: 'Russia: Threat to Western Civilization,'" British War Cabinet, Joint Planning Staff</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">), which proposed Western forces attack the Soviets on a front extending from Hamburg in the north to Trieste in the south.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The War Cabinet listed out the total allied strength in Europe on July 1, 1945: 64 American divisions, 35 British and Dominion divisions, 4 Polish divisions, and 10 German divisions. The German divisions were purely imaginary because after the mauling they received from the Russians, the surviving soldiers were in no hurry to fight. At most, the allies would have mustered 103 divisions, including 23 armoured ones.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Against this force were arrayed 264 Soviet divisions, including 36 armored. Moscow commanded 6.5 million troops – a 2:1 advantage – on the German border alone. Overall, it had 11 million men and women in uniform.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In aircraft, the Allied Tactical Air Forces in North West Europe and the Mediterranean consisted of 6,714 fighter planes and 2464 bombers. The Soviets had 9380 fighter aircraft and 3380 bombers.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">A battle map that show the final positions of the allied and Soviet armies at the end of World War II</i><img alt="" src="https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/nintchdbpict000283605447.jpg?strip=all&w=960" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Sizing up Russia</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">As the Germans had discovered, war against Russia was certainly not a walk in the park. The War Cabinet stated: “The Russian Army has developed a capable and experienced High Command. The army is exceedingly tough, lives and moves on a lighter scale of maintenance than any Western army, and employs bold tactics based largely on disregard for losses in attaining its objective.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">“Equipment has improved rapidly throughout the war and is now good. Enough is known of its development to say that it is certainly not inferior to that of the great powers.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">“The facility the Russian have shown in the development and improvement of existing weapons and equipment and in their mass production has been very striking. There are known instances of the Germans copying basic features of Russian armament.”</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The assessment, signed by the Chief of Army Staff on June 9, 1945, concluded: “It would be beyond our power to win a quick but limited success and we would be committed to a protracted war against heavy odds. These odds, moreover, would become fanciful if the Americans grew weary and indifferent and began to be drawn away by the magnet of the Pacific war.”</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Operation Lusty and Air Superiority</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Operation LUSTY (LUftwaffe Secret TechnologY) was the United States Army Air Forces operation to capture and evaluate German aeronautical technology and scientific advances. Using captured German jets and blueprints, the Americans and British improved their own jet aircraft and made rockets. Had Unthinkable been launched, American and British jet fighters such as the American P-80 and the British Meteors along with German jet fighters coming out of the revitalised factories would easily win air superiority over Soviet air space, as even their most modern aircrafts, the Yak-3s and La-9s would be outclassed. With air superiority, American and British heavy bombers would be able to devastate supply lines and fighter-bombers would be able to strike Soviet positions at will. Without the British sale of the Rolls-Royce Nene jet engine to the Soviets, they would be hard pressed to make their own jet engine and would be unable to recover their airspace.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Ground Forces and Equipment</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Now, maintaining air superiority is good and all, but it won’t matter if your line still gets smashed, so let’s compare the Soviet and Allied materiel they would’ve had.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In terms of small arms such as machine guns and rifles, the Allied and Soviet armies would be pretty evenly matched. But if the Allies fully revive German industry and adopt their designs, they would be able to use advanced German weapons such as the Sturmgewehr 44s, which would tip the odds in this category in favour of the Allies.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Tanks are harder to compare since they had different doctrines, but purely in terms of armament and armour, the Soviets would beat the Allies in this category, at least at first. IS-2s and IS-3s would outclass their lighter Allied designs, such as Shermans and Cromwells, but as the war drags on, they would be able to field counters such as Pershings, T-32s and Britain’s Challengers. In addition to American and British designs, with Germany’s revitalised industry, they can also use German late-war designs such as Tiger IIs and Panthers to fight the Russians. Though in the future, the Soviets would also be able to use better tanks like the T-54s and the IS-4s, so in the end, both sides’ tank forces would be equally matched.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">While Soviet and Allied commanders are both good, the Soviets would probably have the upper hand due to their willingness to take large casualties to accomplish goals. The Allied command would probably be less willing. That said, the Allies have many great generals at their disposal, and with resurrected German formations, they can also gain the experience of German field marshals like Guderian and Manstein on optimal ways to fight the Russians.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The Soviets would also have a harder time supplying their troops, as their supply route goes from Russia to Poland to East Germany, while the British and American can supply their troops from Britain to France to West Germany, which in comparison, has better infrastructure. In addition, the Soviet supply line would also be bombed by Allied bombers, making it even harder for the troops.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Even so, in terms of equipment and forces, both sides are around equally matched. Still, someone has to make the equipment for the troops to fight with.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">The Home Front</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">By the end of WW2, Great Britain was heavily exhausted and it would be hard to get the British to fight the Soviets. So Churchill would need to find a way to bolster the people’s resolve. But even so, the British by themselves wouldn’t be able to make enough equipment to fight and will have to rely on the American war machine. Americans, after knowing the horrors of the Red Army and what they did to civilian populations would be willing to support the industrial effort.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">For the Russians, however, the production of goods will be a harder thing, as in the latter part of WW2, they were supplied by American Land-Lease goods. Now that they were at war, industrial goods to help manage factories, foodstuffs, trucks and other vehicles would be cut off, meaning that the Soviets would have to make all of those.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In addition, though the Russian industry was at that point past the Ural Mountains, heavy strategic bombers such as B-29s can fly from air bases in occupied Japan to to bomb them.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Though with enough sticks and propaganda, the Soviet war machine will still crank on, but the Americans would probably outproduce them. In addition, he American’s craftsmanship and quality would be better than the Soviets’.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Nukes</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Here’s the big one, the atomic bombs. By the start of Unthinkable, America could already make atomic bombs and the Soviets knew this after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but they don’t have atomic weaponry yet, so they’ll be at a disadvantage. Remember, Allied airpower would be able to defeat the Soviet Air Force and so delivering the bombs wouldn’t be much of an issue, especially considering that B-29s perform well at high altitudes, so the Soviets would be hard pressed to catch them. Long range F-82s would be able to escort the bombers. Depending on how many atomic bombs America can make, they could completely destroy key Russian cities like Moscow and Kiev. If leaders like Stalin dead, the Soviets would need to find new leaders just as ruthless and just as efficient as Stalin was, or they will have to go to the bargaining table with the Allies.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">The Outcome</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">So who would win and what would the result be? It would be a grueling, uphill battle for the Allies, especially because they’d have to go into East Germany then Poland and then into Russia to make them surrender. The casualties on both sides would be heavy,but in my opinion, the Allies would probably win against Soviet Union, despite the numerical disadvantage. Even if they can’t force the Soviets to agree to every decision, they would be able to accomplish some of their war aims. Nevertheless, despite the victory, Europe would be in ruins and the United Kingdom on the verge of bankruptcy. America would, like in our timeline, help rebuild Europe and finance it.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">What if 'Operation Unthinkable' Happened (YouTube)<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><iframe allowfullscreen="1" frameborder="0" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/epW5ktfYt9Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></u><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-26020666269940394072017-01-19T14:04:00.001-08:002017-01-19T14:04:24.667-08:00<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/1036/german-victory-battle-jutland" target="_blank">What if: German victory in the Battle of Jutland</a></span><br />
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://www.britishbattles.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">A century ago, the two greatest fleets of the industrial age fought an inconclusive battle in the North Sea. The British Grand Fleet and the German High Seas Fleet fielded a total of fifty-eight dreadnought battleships and battle cruisers, ships over the twice the size of most modern surface combatants. Including smaller ships, the battle included 250 vessels in total.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The two fleets fought to a draw, with the Germans inflicting more casualties, but still being lucky to escape alive. The Grand Fleet could very easily have annihilated the Germans, an outcome which, however tragic, would not have moved the needle on the rest of the war. But what if the Germans had won?</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">The Battle Situation</u><br />
<u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></u><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">First things first, how could the Germans have won? The High Seas Fleet faced very tough odds at Jutland. It only enjoyed a numerical advantage near the opening stages of the battle, when the German battle cruisers (commanded by Adm. Franz von Hipper) drew a contingent of British battle cruisers and fast battleships (commanded by David Beatty and Hugh Evan-Thomas) within range of Reinhard Scheer’s German battle line.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">We can imagine a different outcome if we alter some of the events at the opening of the battle. HMS </span><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Lion</i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">, the flagship of the British battle cruiser squadron, nearly exploded in the early minutes of the battle, after suffering a devastating hit from SMS </span><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Lutzow</i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">, Hipper’s flagship. The early detonation of </span><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Lion </i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">would have allowed the Germans to build advantage upon advantage; guns targeted at the lead battle cruiser would have focused on the next in line, and so forth. The British lost two battle cruisers during this stage anyway, and it is easy to imagine the loss of </span><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Lion</i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;"> leading to disarray in the British squadron. At the extreme, the concentration of German gunfire on fewer ships, and the lack of command and control on the part of the British, could have led to the loss of all six British battle cruisers and four fast battleships (all four of the latter would serve capably in World War II, meaning that a German victory might have had long-term effects).</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">To be clear, this would have been an astonishing German victory; the destruction of ten British capital ships would have shocked the world. But Scheer, the overall German commander, always believed that he could have won a great victory by engaging the Grand Fleet as it entered line formation to his north. Frankly, however, it’s hard to see how this happens; the German were themselves disordered, and Admiral John Jellicoe brought twenty-four dreadnoughts and three battle cruisers to the party.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">But let’s be generous; in the chaos, the Germans might have isolated and hammered another three to five British capital ships before escaping back to Kiel. If we allow the additional destruction of three dreadnoughts and two battle cruisers, this leaves the Germans with what amounts to a 15–0 scorecard—a truly devastating success on par with the greatest naval victories in history.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">The Aftermath</u><br />
<u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></u><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">But what would this have won? Such a victory would have substantially cut the British advantage in the North Sea. The Royal Navy had two dreadnoughts and one battle cruiser in reserve, and two more battle cruisers and three dreadnoughts would enter service before the end of the year. The Germans had one battleship in reserve, and would shortly commission one new battle cruiser and two new battleships. By the end of the year, the Germans would have eighteen battleships and six battle cruisers, the British twenty-six battleships and four battle cruisers. In short, the remnant of the Grand Fleet could pose a credible threat to even a victorious High Seas Fleet.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">And Britain had allies.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Seven French dreadnoughts operated in the Mediterranean, backstopping the Italian navy’s efforts to pin Austria-Hungary in the Adriatic. An emergency in the North Atlantic would likely have drawn them into support of the Grand Fleet. Further afield, Japan operated six dreadnoughts and four battle cruisers, almost all of outstanding construction. The Imperial Japanese Navy would eventually deploy a squadron in support of Entente operations in the Mediterranean, but in case of emergency London might have made the diplomatic concessions necessary to accessing the greater part of Japanese naval power.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Finally, the United States had twelve dreadnoughts in the waiting, and Brazil would eventually contribute a pair of (poorly maintained) dreadnoughts to the cause. Both Brazil and the United States entered the war as a direct result of Germany’s unrestricted submarine warfare campaign, but a German victory at Jutland might have changed thinking in Washington and Rio de Janeiro. We will return to this question.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Could German victory have shocked the British public into demanding an end to the war? Anything is possible, but maritime vulnerability drove anti-German sentiment in the prewar period, and there is little reason to believe that it would cause the British to throw in the towel in 1917. Moreover, the British public suffered similar (in fact, more devastating) setbacks in 1940 and 1941, and continued to support the fight.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">German Naval Activity Post-Jutland</u><br />
<u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></u><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Defeating the Grand Fleet would undoubtedly have taken a severe toll on the Germans; many ships would have taken months to repair. But the problem for the Germans ran deeper than battle damage.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Imperial Germany built the ships of the High Seas Fleet for one purpose: to destroy the battlefleet of the Royal Navy. For this purpose they were good ships, but they offered little for other tasks. The ships of the High Seas Fleet lacked the range, habitability and underway replenishment techniques necessary to engage in a long-range raiding campaign, much less a sustained blockade of British ports.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Moreover, the High Seas Fleet could not have broken the British blockade, which depended more upon Britain’s favorable geography than the power of the Grand Fleet. German ships could perhaps have escorted specific merchant vessels through, but the Royal Navy had global reach; if necessary, it could take those merchants before the Germans had a chance to escort them.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The Germans could have engaged in more vigorous efforts to bombard the British coastline (especially with the gutting of the British battle cruiser force), although such bombardments would have had only a very marginal effect on the British economy. The High Seas Fleet could potentially have disrupted channel traffic for a while, forcing the British to rely more on France’s Atlantic ports, although this would have proven more an inconvenience than a real hardship.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">What about the effect on U-boats? The German high command reacted to Jutland by refocusing its efforts on submarine warfare, an attempt to strangle Britain out of the war. A major victory might possibly have delayed this decision, pushing back U.S. entry into the war. Although the submarine campaign created some perilous moments for the United Kingdom, it did not meaningfully degrade the effectiveness of the British Army in the field. Thus, a delay to U.S. entry might have bought the Germans more time to win the war in France.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">But this depends very much on U.S. reaction to a German victory at Jutland. Both presidential candidates in 1916 ran on peace platforms, making it unlikely that the United States would have reacted by immediately entering the war. However, a German victory might have shaken American confidence in British success, leading to additional support for the war effort. Overall, however, it is hard to argue that the success of the Germany surface fleet would have had as negative an effect in the United States as the resumption of submarine warfare.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">It helps to win battles, and the Germans would undoubtedly have derived some benefit from defeating the Royal Navy at Jutland. However, the Reich had much bigger maritime problems than the Grand Fleet alone; its disadvantageous geographic position made it difficult for Germany to take access international markets even under the best wartime conditions. Moreover, while Great Britain’s international position meant that it had responsibilities around the world, it could also draw on more global resources, including allies.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Germany’s biggest advantage might have sprung from the confidence that it could, in fact, win battles at sea against the Royal Navy. This confidence might have forestalled the risky, and ultimately disastrous, gamble of unrestricted submarine warfare. The German offensive of spring and summer 1918 very nearly succeeded, despite the material and military support of the United States. Had the United States been less involved, Germany quite possibly could have prevailed.</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br /></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-24808731351027980312017-01-18T08:31:00.001-08:002017-01-18T08:31:11.865-08:00<a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/770/ways-japan-won-world-war" target="_blank">Ten ways Japan could have won World War II</a><br />
<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Let's face it. Imperial Japan stood next to no chance of winning a fight to the finish against the United States. Resolve and resources explain why. So long as Americans kept their dander up, demanding that their leaders press on to complete victory, Washington had a mandate to convert the republic's immense industrial potential into a virtually unstoppable armada of ships, aircraft, and armaments. Such a physical mismatch was simply too much for island state Japan -- with an economy about one-tenth the size of America's -- to surmount.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Quantity has a quality all its own. No amount of willpower or martial virtuosity can overcome too lopsided a disparity in numbers. Tokyo stared that plight in the face following Pearl Harbor.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">So Japan could never have crushed U.S. maritime forces in the Pacific and imposed terms on Washington. That doesn't mean it couldn't have won World War II. Sounds counterintuitive, doesn't it? But the weak sometimes win. As strategic sage Carl von Clausewitz recounts, history furnishes numerous instances when the weak got their way. Indeed, Clausewitz notes that it sometimes makes sense for the lesser contender to start a fight. If its leadership sees force as the only resort, and if the trendlines look unfavorable -- in other words, if right now is as good as it gets -- then why not act?</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">There are three basic ways to win wars according to the great Carl. One, you can trounce the enemy's armed forces and dictate whatever terms you please. Short of that, two, you can levy a heavier price from the enemy than he's willing to pay to achieve his goals. The value a belligerent assigns his political objectives determines how many resources he's prepared to expend on those objectives' behalf, and for how long. Taking measures that compel an opponent to expend more lives, armaments, or treasure is one way to raise the price. Dragging out the affair so that he pays heavy costs over time is another. And three, you can dishearten him, persuading him he's unlikely to fulfill his war aims.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">A disconsolate adversary, or one who balks at the costs of war, is a pliant adversary. He cuts the best deal he can to exit the imbroglio.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">If a military triumph lay beyond Tokyo's reach, the second two methods remained available in the Pacific. Japanese commanders could have husbanded resources, narrowing the force mismatch between the warring sides. They could have made the conflict more costly, painful, and prolonged for America, undercutting its resolve. Or, alternatively, they could have avoided rousing American fury to wage total war in the first place. By foregoing a strike at Hawaii, they could have enfeebled the opponent's resolve or, perhaps, sidelined the opponent entirely.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Bottom line, no likely masterstroke -- no single stratagem or killing blow -- would have defeated the United States. Rather, Japanese commanders should have thought and acted less tactically and more strategically. In so doing they would have improved Japan's chances.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Which brings us to Ten Ways Japan Could Have Won. Now, the items cataloged below are far from mutually exclusive. The Japanese leadership would have boosted its prospects had it embraced them all. And granted, enacting some of these measures would have demanded preternaturally farseeing leadership. Foresight was a virtue of which Japan's vacillating emperor and squabbling military rulers were woefully short. Whether it was plausible for them to act wisely is open to debate. With these caveats out of the way, onward!</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">1. Wage one war at a time</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Conserving enemies is a must even for the strongest combatants. It's imperative for small states with big ambitions to avoid making war against everyone in sight. Imposing discipline on the war was particularly hard for Japan, whose political system -- patterned on Imperial Germany's, alas -- was stovepiped between the Imperial Japanese Army and Navy (IJA and IJN), with no meaningful civilian political oversight. Absent a strong emperor, the army and navy were free to indulge their interservice one-upsmanship, jostling for influence and prestige. The IJA cast its gaze on continental Asia, where a land campaign in Manchuria, then China proper, beckoned. The IJN pushed for a maritime campaign aimed at resources in Southeast Asia. By yielding to these contrary impulses between 1931 and 1941, Japan in effect surrounded itself with enemies of its own accord -- invading Manchuria and China before lashing out at the imperial powers in Southeast Asia and, ultimately, striking at Pearl Harbor. Any tactician worth his salt will tell you a 360-degree threat axis -- threats all around -- makes for perilous times. Tokyo should have set priorities. It might have accomplished some of its goals had it taken things in sequence.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">2. Don't fight land and sea wars simultaneously</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Unable to referee between the army, which espoused war in continental Asia, and the navy, which beckoned his attention seaward, the emperor permitted both campaigns to proceed. Tokyo thus disregarded the strategic wisdom of a Carl von Clausewitz, who warned against opening new theaters that place success in the primary theater at risk. The emperor failed to adjudicate between the military services — and thus compelled the empire to fight a far stronger power with only a fraction of its strength. Dispersing power is misbegotten strategy for the weaker belligerent.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">3. Don't awaken sleeping giants</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto famously warned that he could run wild against American forces for six months or a year, but that he feared for Japan's future if Washington refused a compromise peace after that. How could Tokyo have accomplished its goals in the Pacific — roughly speaking, a partition of that expanse between Japan and America — without striking preemptively at the U.S. Pacific Fleet at Hawaii? Well, it could have chosen its targets to achieve its goals without rousing American fury. Evicting U.S. forces from the Philippines, for instance, would have helped Japan firm up its control of the Western Pacific — and it's hard to imagine the United States waging a war to the death afterward. Americans simply didn't attach the same importance to the Philippine as to the Hawaiian Islands. Operational logic sometimes begets colossal strategic and political mistakes.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">4. Listen to Yamamoto</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto reputedly cautioned his superiors that Japan must win a quick, decisive victory lest it awaken the American "sleeping giant" with fateful consequences for Japan. The IJN, prophesied Yamamoto, could run wild for six months -- maybe a year -- before the United States mustered its full power for combat. During that interval, Japan needed to stun American society into a compromise peace -- in effect a partition of the Pacific -- while firming up the island defense perimeter enclosing the Asia-Pacific territories won by Japanese arms. What if its efforts fell short? U.S. industry would be turning out armaments in massive quantities, while new vessels laid down under the Two-Ocean Navy Act of 1940 -- in effect a second, bulked-up U.S. Navy -- would start arriving in the theater. The balance would shift irretrievably. In short, Yamamoto warned military leaders against "script-writing," or assuming the enemy would do precisely what they foresaw. The admiral knew a thing or two about the United States, and understood the American propensity to defy preconceptions.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">5. Don't listen to Yamamoto</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">If Admiral Yamamoto rendered wise counsel on the strategic level, it was suspect on the operational level. His solution to the problem of latent U.S. material superiority was to strike at what navalists saw as the hub of enemy power -- the adversary's battle fleet. For decades IJN planners had envisioned waging "interceptive operations" to slow down and weaken the U.S. Pacific Fleet as it steamed westward, presumably to the relief of the Philippine Islands. Once aircraft and submarines deployed to outlying islands whittled the Pacific Fleet down to size, the IJN battle fleet would force a decisive battle. Yamamoto, however, convinced IJN commanders to jettison interceptive operations in favor of a sudden blow at Pearl Harbor. But in reality, the battle line stationed in Hawaii wasn't the core of American naval strength. The nascent Two-Ocean Navy Act fleet was. The best that Yamamoto's scheme could accomplish, consequently, was to delay an American counteroffensive into 1943. Tokyo may have been better off sticking with the interwar plan, which would have driven up U.S. costs, protracted the endeavor, and potentially sapped U.S. perseverance.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">6. Concentrate rather than disperse resources</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Just as Japanese officials seemed incapable of restricting themselves to one war at a time, they seemed incapable of limiting the number of active operations and combat theaters. Look no further than Japanese actions in 1942. IJN task forces struck into the Indian Ocean, inflicting a Pearl Harbor on the British Eastern Fleet off Ceylon. They saw the need to shore up the northern flank at the Battle of Midway by assaulting the remote Aleutian Islands. And they extended the empire's outer defense perimeter -- and assumed vast new waterspace to defend -- by opening a secondary theater in the Solomon Islands, in a vain effort to interrupt sea routes connecting North America with Australia. It's incumbent on the weaker combatant to ask itself whether the gains from secondary enterprises are exceptional, and what it risks in the most important theaters, before undertaking new adventures. Japan, which had fewer resources to spare, raised the costs to itself -- more than the United States -- through its strategic indiscipline.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">7. Wage unrestricted submarine warfare</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Inexplicably, the IJN neglected to do what the U.S. Pacific Fleet set in motion while Battleship Row was still afire: unleash its submarine force to sink any ship, naval or merchant, that flew an enemy flag. By 1945, American boats dismembered the island empire by severing the shipping lanes connecting its parts. Japanese submarines were the equals of their U.S. Navy counterparts. IJN commanders should have looked at the nautical chart, grasped the fact that U.S. naval forces must operate across thousands of miles of ocean simply to reach the Western Pacific, and directed sub skippers to make the transpacific sea lanes no-go zones for American shipping. It's hard to imagine a more straightforward, cost-effective scheme whereby Japan's navy could exact a heavy toll from its opponent. Neglecting undersea warfare was an operational transgression of the first order.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">8. Recognize quality has an amount of its own</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">To a point, the Imperial Japanese Navy was obsessed with violent relationships, but it also had a bad habit of assuming away numerical inferiority. Skill and elan, which is fabricated material American ascendancy in the minds of many commanders. Indeed, the human factor is the main arbiter of combat results. But a quasi- mystical belief in a martial excellence makes a poor foundation for tactics and operations. A respectful attitude toward potential enemies is a much safer prospects for those considering the dangers and hardships of the war at sea. Japanese commanders were sensitive to the use of fudge factors in military calculations - always bad practice.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">9. Do not get cute with fleet dispositions.</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Japanese commanders tended to overly complicated tactics and operational methods. For example, the Navy undertook a massive sideshow in the Aleutian Islands to provide cover for operations against Midway Island , far to the south . Why? And speaking of the Battle of Midway , fleet commanders scattered carrier battleship detachments too far apart to make mutual support. Is deceptive wore a terrible price. Flout basic principles, such as concentration of firepower and effort asking for trouble - and Japanese sailors asked for it repeatedly. To win, think and act strategically - or abandon the effort altogether.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">10 Realize protraction favor sometimes strong</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">We tend to assume that stringing a conflict in favor of the weak, especially when the weak face additional regional opponents. The idea - a sound one - is that the home team usually attaches more importance to events on home soil than would any outsider. If the defender can prolong the conflict, while demanding steep costs and undermine enemy morale, it can hope to wear the enemy despite the mismatch in resources. But that only works if the outside power refuses to call to assemble the forces to an enormous effort over long distances. That assumption fell flat during the Pacific War, when the United States pursued an active defense until ready to go on the offensive.</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-168752199857570902017-01-16T10:46:00.001-08:002017-01-16T10:46:48.722-08:00<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/801/nato-warsaw-pact-planed-world" target="_blank">How NATO and the Warsaw Pact planed to win World War III</a></span><br />
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMOI-UcRiWY3m3eksIVPPysa3fgh_r6vq6D2IzXZLroU5EFe8O9CufPdUfyoatWdNLQ_LgjkZRb1L7-ovEydbQ-kYpAgQbaRNvXcdx3ddOktjj7n58YB1zq7MBdOJqtWvyEO2SCqMDxc5Y/s1600/WAR.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">How the Warsaw Pact Planned to Win World War Three in Europe<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></u><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Map of Soviet forces in Germany</i><img alt="" src="http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh240/andyrix/Scenarios/Nienberg/IMG_0864_zpsabb14aad.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The scenario is set in the late 1980s, assumed that the forces of the Soviet Union and the rest of the Warsaw Pact—namely East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary—steamrollered West Germany to defeat NATO. The plan assumed the western alliance would defend as far forward as possible while avoiding the use of tactical nuclear weapons.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">But what about the Warsaw Pact? After the Cold War ended, the Polish government made public classified Soviet documents that revealed the likely war plan. The plan, known as “Seven Days to the Rhine,” was the basis of 1979 military exercise that assumed NATO as the aggressor, having nuked a series of twenty-five targets in Poland, including Warsaw and the port of Gdansk. The cover story of countering aggression was a mere fig leaf for the true nature of the anticipated conflict: a bolt-from-the-blue Soviet attack against NATO.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">By the 1980s NATO had shifted to a “Flexible Response” nuclear doctrine: the alliance was prepared to use nuclear weapons, but would seek to win the war conventionally. This is in stark contrast to the Warsaw Pact, which saw their use as inevitable and planned to use them from the outset. Such early would confer the pact an enormous strategic advantage over NATO.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In “</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Days_to_the_River_Rhine" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Seven Days to the Rhine</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">,” Soviet nuclear forces would destroy Hamburg, Dusseldorf, Cologne, Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Munich and the West German capital of Bonn. NATO headquarters in Brussels would be annihilated, as would the Belgian port of Antwerp. The Dutch capital and port of Amsterdam would also be destroyed. Denmark would suffer two nuclear strikes.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">1976 map of probable axes of attack for the Warsaw Pact forces into Europe.<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="https://harveyblackauthor.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/cold-war-5-030-1.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The result would be a headless NATO and the destruction or demoralization of civilian governments in West Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark—precisely the countries likely to be occupied at the end of the seven days. The elimination of the port cities of Hamburg, Antwerp and Amsterdam would severely curtail NATO’s ability to flow reinforcements from the United Kingdom and North America.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Curiously, France and the United Kingdom were to be spared nuclear strikes. This is probably because both had independent nuclear arsenals not tied to the United States. The United States might have hesitated to retaliate for fear of escalating to strategic nuclear warfare, but for France and the UK the European atomic battlefield was much closer and the dividing line between tactical and strategic not so clear-cut. The Soviet leadership probably had no intention of continuing war with either one on the eighth day.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">After the Warsaw Pact had launched nuclear strikes, conventional forces would be sent in to conquer. Seven Days to the Rhine assumed a radioactive zone that used to be called Poland, dividing the Soviet Union from its forces in East Germany, Czechoslovakia and Hungary. Those forces, along with their East German, Czechoslovak and Hungarian counterparts, would need to suffice to carry out the attack. While Polish forces were theoretically available, by 1979 the Soviets would have reason to suspect their political reliability.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">As a result, total forces committed would be roughly the same number of forces the pact would have in a no-notice attack on NATO. Planning with the assumption of a radioactive curtain severing forward pact forces from the Soviet Union itself is also a reasonable model for assuming a quick war without a prewar buildup of ammunition and fuel from the Soviet Union.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Leading the spearhead aimed at the heart of NATO would be the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany. The GSFG was comprised of five armies, each with three or four tank and motor-rifle (mechanized infantry) divisions.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In the North, the Soviet and East German attack force would consist of the Soviet Second Guards Tank Army, Twentieth Guards Army and Third Shock Army, consisting of seven tank divisions and five motor rifle divisions. East Germany’s National People’s Army, considered the best of the non-Soviet pact forces, would contribute two tank and four mechanized-infantry divisions.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">This combined northern force of eighteen combat divisions, plus artillery, air assault and special forces, would smash into the combined Danish, Dutch, West German, British and Belgian forces facing them. The battle would take place on the so-called North German Plain, a stretch of relatively flat, rolling country from the inner German border to the Low Countries. This was considered the quickest, most direct way to knock out the largest number of NATO countries.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Somewhere in the endless stream of combat vehicles headed west would be what was known as the Operational Maneuver Group, or OMG. Anywhere from two brigades to two divisions large, the OMG would be held in reserve until a breakthrough was achieved. Once committed, the OMG would lunge deep behind enemy lines, cutting off NATO forces as it did so.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In southern Germany, the spearhead would be the Soviet Eighth Guards Army and the First Guards Tank Army, totaling three tank divisions and three motor rifle divisions. The Soviet Central Group of Forces, based in Czechoslovakia, would add two tank and three motor rifle divisions; the Czechoslovak People’s Army would also add three tank and five motor rifle divisions. Czechoslovak forces were formidable in theory, but the Soviets likely still considered them politically suspect twenty years after the Prague Spring of 1968.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">This southern force of nineteen divisions would enjoy the shortest route to the Rhine River, only 120 miles as the crow flies, but faced serious military and geographical obstacles. The ten West German and American divisions facing them were among the best-equipped in NATO, and the correlation of forces, to use a Soviet Army phrase, did not favor the attacker. The terrain was a mixture of hills, mountains and connecting valleys, all of which strongly favored the defender.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In the meantime, Soviet airborne and air assault forces would fan out and occupy key bridges, particularly over the Weser and Rhine Rivers. Seizing river crossings would be essential for maintaining the momentum of the ground offensive. Airfields, military headquarters and known alternate seats of government would also be targets. Soviet spetsnaz special forces would also target NATO tactical nuclear weapons, seeking to neutralize Pershing II, Ground Launched Cruise Missiles and nuclear gravity bombs before they could be used.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">At sea, the Soviet Navy would immediately go on the offensive. The Soviet Navy would, like the German Navy before it, try to sever the naval supply line from North America to Europe. The Soviet Navy would also immediately try to destroy American aircraft carriers, which with their airborne nuclear weapons were a wild card, capable of delivering nuclear strikes against a variety of targets over vast ranges.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The most important goal of the Soviet Navy would be to safeguard its ballistic missile submarines hiding in the Barents Sea bastion. Whether or not Moscow won or lost in the conventional realm, this would preserve a second-strike strategic capability against the United States. If the Americans were successful in wiping out Soviet boomers, that could embolden them to launch a nuclear first strike.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Warsaw Pact aviation was to be very busy. Assuming a short seven-day war, there would not be time to execute a proper air-defense suppression campaign. Much of NATO’s leadership would have been killed during the nuclear attacks, and as a result NATO air defenses would be disorganized. Pact air forces might simply press on without attempting to destroy NATO air defenses.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Assuming a no-notice war, most combat missions would be preplanned counter-air missions and air strikes against known airfields, army bases and NATO ground positions. Prepositioned stocks of U.S. Army equipment in Germany and the Netherlands would be particularly vulnerable, allowing the pact to knock out entire divisions without fighting them.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The Warsaw Pact plan makes clear two things. First, in a surprise attack, the most important forces are the ground forces. The quicker they can advance, the sooner they can overrun NATO—and that includes air bases and naval facilities. The faster they can force West Germany to surrender, the sooner the rest of NATO runs out of reasons to continue fighting—and the specter of all-out nuclear war recedes.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Second, NATO would have lost the war. NATO’s assumption that the war would gradually escalate to nuclear weapons would have been fatal against an adversary that planned to use them on Day One. The use of nukes in Western Europe would devolved the decision to employ them away from NATO as a collective body to heads of the United States, France and the UK. All three would be forced to use battlefield nukes to save their troops—and risk escalation that would devastate their homelands—or walk away from the rest of NATO.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">While the World War III scenario in Europe was always unlikely, it was also the most dangerous. We now know that, instead of an escalation to nuclear war being a possibility, it was virtually guaranteed. The only question would have been to what extent—and whether or not human civilization would have survived it.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">How NATO Planned to Win World War Three in Europe<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></u><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Map of NATO and Warsaw Pact forces in Europe</i><img alt="" src="http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh240/andyrix/British/IMG_0866_zpsd4a27629.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was formed in 1949 to oppose Soviet expansionism in Western Europe. The end of the war saw the Soviet Union solidify its gains in Eastern Europe, garrisoning countries such as Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Bulgaria and East Germany. NATO was a direct response to the raising of what Winston Churchill deemed the “Iron Curtain.”</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">At the time, American and Western European planners felt that if war were to break out between West and Stalin’s Russia, it would quite logically take place in Europe. The reality of nuclear weapons, however, meant that the two sides avoided direct confrontation and instead fought a series of proxy wars worldwide. That having been said, for the Soviet Union an invasion of Western Europe carried the biggest risk—and the biggest reward.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">NATO’s strategic mission was to prevent the destruction of the alliance by military force. Essential to that were four wartime goals: gaining air superiority, keeping sea lines of communication open to North America, maintaining the territorial integrity of West Germany and avoiding the use of nuclear weapons. Were NATO to lose any of these four, the war was as good as over.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In 1988, NATO’s plan for the defense of Western Europe was the doctrine of forward defense, in which Soviet and Warsaw Pact forces were stopped as far close to the inner German border as possible. A defense in depth—which experience on the Eastern Front in World War II had proved superior—would have imperiled virtually the entire West German population and forty years of postwar rebuilding.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">NATO seemingly had no unified battle plan other than to “man the line” until Soviet and Warsaw Pact forces were exhausted—whereupon counterattacks could be executed to restore prewar borders. West German Army forces, inflexible at the strategic level, were allowed a level of flexibility at the tactical level. The United States devised AirLand Battle, a doctrine that stipulated ground and air units would work together to strike the enemy simultaneously, from the forward edge of the battle area to deep behind enemy lines.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">At sea, the primary mission of NATO’s naval forces was to keep the sea lanes between North America and Europe open, in order to guarantee the flow of reinforcements from the United States and Canada. NATO patrol aircraft, ships and submarines would seek out Soviet submarines attempting to interdict supply convoys, trying to keep them north of an imaginary line connecting Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In the Norwegian Sea, the U.S. Navy planned to surge two to three carrier battle groups, plus a battleship surface action group to attack Soviet air and naval bases of the Northern Fleet. This direct attack on the Soviet homeland was meant to divert enemy attention from the convoys, destroy air and naval facilities, and starve enemy units at sea of support. It would also, unofficially, isolate Soviet ballistic missile submarines from their land-based support, leaving them in a position to be hunted down.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">NATO naval forces would bottle up Soviet, Polish and East German naval forces inside the Baltic Sea, and prevent a seaborne invasion of Denmark. West German naval forces would be on alert for Polish marine units attempting to execute a landing north of Hamburg.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In the air, NATO’s air fleets would be assigned to several roles. American F-15s and F-16s, British Tornado ADV, and German F-4 Phantom jets, among many others, would attempt to establish air superiority over the continent. Meanwhile, British and German Tornado IDS low-level strike bombers would fly counter-air missions, bombing Warsaw Pact airfields in East Germany and Poland. USAF F-111 fighter bombers and other alliance strike jets would perform interdiction missions, bombing bridges, headquarters, supply and other targets to slow the Warsaw Pact advance. Finally, American A-10 Warthogs, German Alpha Jets and Royal Air Force Harriers would be providing forward air support to beleaguered NATO ground troops.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Yet it was on the ground was where the war would have been decided. Everything supported the war on the ground—even the air war, for the ideal Soviet solution to NATO air superiority was to put a tank on every enemy airfield.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Technologically, NATO ground forces had an edge, and the decade was a period where many combat systems were introduced that are still in service today. In 1988, the Europe-based U.S. Seventh Army was several years into fielding its “Big Five” combat systems: the M1 Abrams tank, M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, AH-64 Apache attack helicopter, UH-60 Blackhawk transport and Patriot air defense missile, which would greatly upgrade the Army’s ability to fight AirLand Battle. West Germany had begun deploying its second generation tank, the Leopard II, also being deployed by the Netherlands, and had the Marder infantry combat vehicle. At the same time, the introduction of the Challenger tank and Warrior infantry fighting vehicle reinvigorated the British Army of the Rhine’s combat formations.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">NORTHAG, or Northern Army Group, was assigned to the north half of West Germany. NORTHAG was committed to defending the North German Plain, a stretch of relatively flat, rolling country from the inner German border to the Netherlands and Belgium. The terrain clearly favored the attacker. NORTHAG also had the added pressure of protecting the shortest route to the Ruhr, the industrial heartland of West Germany, the West German capital of Bonn, and the shortest routes to Antwerp and Rotterdam, two major ports that played an essential role in flowing reinforcements to NATO.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">NATO forces in sector were split between German, British, Dutch and Belgian corps of two to four combat divisions each—meaning it enjoyed unity of command only at the army level. Although NATO could expect quick reinforcement from the UK, the Netherlands and Belgium, most units in the army group’s sector were stationed far from their defensive positions and required extended warning to occupy them.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">CENTAG, or Central Army Group, was assigned to the lower half of Germany. CENTAG was a predominantly German and American force, with a mechanized brigade from Canada added for good measure. Two German corps, each with a mix of panzer, panzergrenadier and mountain divisions, would hold the line, as well as two American corps, each consisting of two to three armored and mechanized infantry divisions. CENTAG was responsible for the narrowest point between the German border and the Rhine river, a distance of roughly 120 miles.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Although outnumbered, CENTAG had aces up its sleeve. U.S. and German combat formations were made up of armor and mechanized infantry, ideal for fighting the tank-heavy Soviet and Warsaw Pact forces facing them. Although a conscript army the Bundeswehr, as the West German army was called, was of very high quality, with excellent training, leadership and equipment. American divisions stationed in Europe had an extra maneuver battalion, increasing firepower by approximately 10 percent, and each American corps had an armored cavalry regiment screening the border.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Another plus for CENTAG was the terrain. Unlike northern Germany, the terrain in southern Germany consist of hills, mountains and connecting valleys, all of which strongly favored the defender. It was in CENTAG that the famous Fulda Gap was located, as well as the lesser-known Hof Gap and nearby Cheb Approach.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In the far north, Norway’s shared border with the Soviet Union seemingly boded ill for its defense. The mountainous terrain of Norway, however, made at an attack difficult to sustain, and any Soviet ground assault would have likely been assisted by Soviet marine and airmobile forces. NATO planned to send a multinational brigade, ACE Mobile Force, to buttress Norwegian defenses, and the U.S. Marine Corps pre-positioned an entire brigade’s worth of equipment in Norwegian caves.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Across the continent, NATO could expect enemy airborne landings, helicopter-borne air assaults and attacks by special forces. These light and highly mobile formations would be used to seize key objectives behind NATO lines including airfields, bridges (especially over the Rhine, Main and Weser rivers), headquarters, supply depots and pre-positioned stocks of American equipment.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Guarding against these attacks and providing rear-area security were twelve brigade-sized units of West German reservists. Bonn also had three brigades of paratroops that could be quickly rushed to defend threatened areas. Air base security in NATO was very high, with the U.S. Air Force deploying large numbers of security troops at its many bases and the RAF Regiment guarding British airfields.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">If conventional forces failed to stop a Warsaw Pact invasion, NATO had a wide variety of tactical nuclear weapons on hand, from nuclear depth charges to gravity bombs and the Ground-Launched Cruise Missile and Pershing II missiles. While the alliance certainly had enough nuclear weapons to stop a Soviet-led attack, using them would have started a cycle of nuclear retaliation and counter-retaliation difficult to stop. The use of tactical nuclear weapons would likely have begotten the use of strategic nuclear weapons . . . and the end of human civilization.</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" />Read more: <a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/801/nato-warsaw-pact-planed-world#ixzz4Vx4hbMZr" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #003399; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/801/nato-warsaw-pact-planed-world#ixzz4Vx4hbMZr</a></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-54189183153674061452017-01-16T10:45:00.002-08:002017-01-16T10:45:44.902-08:00<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/802/operation-anglo-french-soviet-union" target="_blank">Operation Pike: Anglo-French plan to bomb the Soviet Union</a></span><br />
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="https://www.warhistoryonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Operation-Pike.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/802/operation-anglo-french-soviet-union#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">Operation Pike</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;"> was the code-name for a strategic bombing plan, overseen by Air Commodore John Slessor, against the Soviet Union by the </span><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/802/operation-anglo-french-soviet-union#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">Anglo</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">-French alliance. British military planning against the Soviet Union occurred during the first two years of the Second World War, when despite Soviet neutrality, the British and French came to the conclusion that the Nazi-Soviet pact made Moscow the ally of Hitler. The plan was designed to destroy the Soviet oil industry, to cause the collapse of the Soviet economy and deprive Nazi Germany of Soviet resources.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Wikipedia article related to </span><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/802/operation-anglo-french-soviet-union#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">Operation Pike</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;"> called: </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Pike" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Operation Pike</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">National Interest article called: <a href="http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/operation-pike-how-crazy-plan-bomb-russia-almost-lost-world-14402" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Operation Pike: How a Crazy Plan to Bomb Russia Almost Lost World War II</a></u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Nazi Germany was defeated largely – though not solely – by the Soviet Union.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">But what if Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union had been allies instead of enemies? What if America, Britain, and their allies had faced a massive Red Army backed by the military prowess and technological sophistication of the Luftwaffe, Nazi panzers and U-boats?</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">That apocalyptic vision of a new Dark Ages almost happened. In the early days of World War II, Britain and France planned to bomb Russian oil fields. The goal was to impede Hitler. The outcome would probably have helped Hitler win the war.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The idea was foolish, but not irrational. By late 1939, Britain and France were convinced that Germany and Russia were already friends. Stalin had tried hard to form an anti-Nazi coalition before the war, only to meet such resistance and hesitation that he became convinced that the capitalists were plotting to embroil Germany and Russia in a mutually exhausting war while the West stayed on the sidelines.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">While London and Paris dithered over whether to ally with the Communists, Berlin had no such hesitation: on August 23, 1939, Germany and Russia signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Russia gained Eastern Poland and the Baltic states, a prospective breathing space to build up its military strength, and the prospect that Germany and the Western powers would exhaust themselves while Russia bided its strength.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Yet the real winner was the Fuhrer. The treaty left the Third Reich free to gobble up Poland and Western Europe without fear of a second front in the East. Just as important, the Soviets agreed to supply vital raw materials – especially oil – to the Third Reich, keeping the German war economy running and breaching the Allied naval blockade that had proved so decisive in World War I.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In Allied eyes, the Soviet Union had changed from Germany's nemesis into Germany's ally. So why not strike the Soviet Union and kill two birds with one stone? Perhaps there was also the frustration of the sitzkrieg, as Allied armies sat impotently behind the Maginot Line while the Germans overran Poland and Scandinavia. Bombing Russia must have seemed easier than confronting the German army on the battlefield.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Thus was born </span><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/802/operation-anglo-french-soviet-union#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">Operation Pike</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">. Flying from Allied bases in Iran and Syria, as well as neutral but anti-Soviet Turkey, more than a hundred British and French bombers would continuously attack Soviet oil fields in the Caucuses in a night strategic bombing campaign. This was more than idle planning. Unmarked British reconnaissance planes flying from Iraqi airfields actually photographed oil installations at Baku and Batumi in March 1940.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Allied air planners were confident this would be a mighty blow. We know now that it would have been a joke. British night bombing efforts in 1940-41 was so inaccurate – only a handful bombs landed within miles of their target – that the Germans hardly noticed them. Even in 1944, thousand-bomber Royal Air Force night raids, supported by the most sophisticated radar and navigation technology of the time, drop their loans on entire German cities because they could not destroy pinpoint targets.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">As the Germans proved, bomb-damaged facilities could be restored with remarkable speed. A 1944 Lancaster bomber carried 7 tons of bombs; a 1940 Blenheim only half a ton. Only the deepest hubris – which indeed afflicted strategic bombing enthusiasts throughout World War II – could make anyone believe that a hundred primitive early-war bombers could devastate the Soviet oil industry.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Patrick Osborn also points out, in his book "</span><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/802/operation-anglo-french-soviet-union#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">Operation Pike</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">," that Allied intelligence concluded that Russian oil only comprised a small part of Germany's fuel supply (much of which actually came from Romania). "The important thing here is not the accuracy of the British intelligence reports but that British and French leaders alike were willing to overlook them in order to pursue their idea of attacking the USSR in order to bring under the feet of Germany: the principle of killing two birds with one stone' taken to ridiculous links."</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In any event, fortune, or rather misfortune, saved the world. In May 1940, German panzers smashed through the Low Countries and into France. Six weeks later, France surrendered. </span><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/802/operation-anglo-french-soviet-union#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">Operation Pike</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;"> was not to be. Except that, as Hitler's armies appeared on the verge of seizing the Caucasus oil fields in 1941-42, Britain still made plans to bomb the oil facilities should the Soviets fail to demolish them before they were captured. Interestingly, the British seemed willing to do battle with Soviet fighters to accomplish this goal.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Ironically, as Osborn notes, instead of harming Germany, the bombing would have weakened the Soviet regime that was the bulwark of the coalition fighting the Nazis. "Someone would have had to have filled the power vacuum if Stalin's government collapsed; that in all likelihood would have been Hitler."</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">However, the real what-if would have come in the summer of 1940. If </span><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/802/operation-anglo-french-soviet-union#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">Operation Pike</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;"> had been launched prior to the surrender of France, then the British government would have faced the prospect of fighting a Nazi-Soviet alliance, with no French ally and the United States still withdrawn behind its walls of isolationism. Some British leaders, such as Lord Halifax, had favored making some kind of peace deal with Hitler. If Britain had also been at war with the Soviet Union, perhaps not even diehard Winston Churchill would have had the stomach to continue fighting what would have seemed like a hopeless war.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Of course, even if Allied bombing had brought Hitler and Stalin together, the romance would have been doomed. Two predators greedily devouring other prey would inevitably have turned on each other. Nonetheless, </span><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/802/operation-anglo-french-soviet-union#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">Operation Pike</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;"> might have changed the history of the world.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Luckily, the world never had a chance to find out.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">War history online article called: <a href="https://www.warhistoryonline.com/war-articles/operation-pike.html" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Operation Pike – The Plan to Bomb Soviet Oilfields In 1939 And Lose The War</a></u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/802/operation-anglo-french-soviet-union#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">Operation Pike</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;"> was the code-name for a strategic bombing plan, overseen by Air Commodore John Slessor, against the Soviet Union by the </span><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/802/operation-anglo-french-soviet-union#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">Anglo</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">-French alliance. British military planning against the Soviet Union occurred during the first two years of the Second World War, when despite Soviet neutrality, the British and French came to the conclusion that the Nazi-Soviet pact made Moscow the ally of Hitler.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The plan was designed to destroy the Soviet oil industry, to cause the collapse of the Soviet economy and deprive Nazi Germany of Soviet resources.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Even before the Nazis had occupied France, the UK and France had planned to bomb Russian oil fields to stop Hitler’s advance through Europe. But if the Allies had gone forward with their plan, it would have forced Nazi Germany and Stalin’s Soviet Union to forge an alliance together against the Allies.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Even though Hitler and Stalin did form a kind of alliance for some time during the war it was short-lived – Hitler’s hunger for power saw the alliance disintegrate when he decided to invade the Soviet Union.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The Allies, meanwhile, were undecided as to whether they should align themselves with the Communist Stalin. During all of this indecision, Hitler moved forward and signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Stalin, which meant that Russia gained occupation of East Poland and the Baltic States while Hitler took the rest of Poland. It also meant that while Stalin’s troops were occupied in the East of Europe, Hitler could move westwards taking the Netherlands, Belgium and France.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Stalin also agreed in the pact to provide supplies such as oil to the Nazi military, so that the German war machine could keep steaming ahead. Now the Soviet Union was an ally of Nazi Germany. </span><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/802/operation-anglo-french-soviet-union#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">Operation Pike</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;"> was developed to send British and French bombers over the Soviet Union to attack and destroy its oil fields, thus impeding and possibly stopping the advance of Germany across Europe.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In March 1940, after the end of the Winter War, the British undertook secret reconnaissance flights to photograph areas inside the Soviet Union, utilising high-altitude, high-speed stereoscopic photography.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Analysis of the photography by the PDU revealed that the oil infrastructure in Baku and Batum were particularly vulnerable to air attack, as both could be approached from the sea, so the more difficult target of Grozny would be bombed first to exploit the element of surprise. Oil fields were to be attacked with incendiary bombs, while tests conducted at the Royal Arsenal at Woolwich, revealed that light oil storage tanks at the oil processing plants could be detonated with high explosives.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">As of 1 April, four squadrons comprising 48 Bristol Blenheim Mk IV bombers were transferred to the Middle East Command, supplemented with a number of single-engined Wellesley bombers for night missions. A French force of 65 Martin Maryland bombers and a supplementary force of 24 Farman F.222 heavy bombers were allocated for night operations during the campaign.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The French were preparing new airfields in Syria which were expected to be ready by 15 May. The campaign was expected to last three months and over 1,000 short tons of ordnance was allocated to the operation.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The German Blitzkrieg and the swift fall of France from 10 May 1940 derailed the plans when the French military failed to hold back the Wehrmacht advance. The Germans captured a train stalled at the village of La Charité-sur-Loire that contained boxes of secret documents evacuated from Paris.Some of these documents were dealing with </span><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/802/operation-anglo-french-soviet-union#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">Operation Pike</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">On 4 July, in a propaganda campaign to justify the invasion of France, the German News Bureau released excerpts of the captured documents relating to </span><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/802/operation-anglo-french-soviet-union#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">Operation Pike</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">After the attack on the Soviet Union by Nazi Germany in Operation Barbarossa in June 1941, </span><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/802/operation-anglo-french-soviet-union#" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">Operation Pike</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;"> was revived as a contingency plan to be invoked if German forces occupied the Caucasian oil fields.</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-82215433594473300262017-01-16T10:43:00.002-08:002017-01-16T10:43:27.483-08:00<a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/920/guy-fawkes-succeeded-1605" target="_blank">What if: Guy Fawkes had succeeded</a><br />
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<img alt="" src="https://www.historyanswers.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/1280px-Gunpowder_Plot_conspirators.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Before we answer some questions about changing history, it's as well to establish what actually happened.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Just after midnight, in the early hours of November 5th 1605, Guido Faukes was arrested in Westminster. </span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">He had been in an undercroft, which stretched under Parliament House, home of the House of Lords. In his possession were thirty-six barrels of gunpowder. Without much prompting at all, he confessed his intention to blow up Westminster Palace.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">But this wasn't just any old session, it was the State Opening of Parliament. In attendance were the King, the Queen and the heir to the throne; every Member of Parliament (except one from Lyme Regis, who'd sent his apologies on account of a flare up of his gout); every English bishop; a cohort of lesser Lords and petitioners; all of the advisers and servants of the above; plus those there for the spectacle.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">They were all informed that a terrorist plot had been foiled, which would have resulted in the death of them all. Then they went on with the order of the day, which was mostly agreeing to pass ever more stringent anti-Catholic laws.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">King James I (and VI of Scotland) officially set the parliamentary session in progress. All present swore loyalty to him. In the House of Lords, they set about clamping down on the Catholic religion within the realm. In the House of Commons, a debate ensued about trade with the Spanish (with whom England had been at war for the past eighty years). It was agreed that merchants should be protected.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Meanwhile, Guido Faukes spent his last miserable months in the Tower of London. He was tortured for information, then horrifically executed. A national hunt for his co-conspirators resulted in a siege at Holbeche House, in the Black Country; and ultimately the death of every named Gunpowder Plotter, either there or judicially in London.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The whole episode passed into legend, and spawned the tradition of Bonfire Night in Britain. Guy Fawkes himself became an iconic figurehead in the fight against injustice and governmental corruption. At least he did after he'd finished being a demonized symbol of religious fanaticism and terrorism.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">What if the Gunpowder Plot had been successful?</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Had the plot been successful the country’s first major colonisation of the New World – the establishment of Jamestown in Virginia in 1607 – may never have happened. Perhaps the French or Spanish would have gotten there first. And had England failed to settle America, would we have then been in a position to colonise the West Indies? Without the profits generated from this colony, Britain might not have had the financial means to expand its horizons in the 19th century. Had the British not settled America in the 17th century, would English be the global language it is today? Probably not. Perhaps we would now live in a world where French is the language of Hollywood and we in Britain would be the ones straining to read the subtitles on the big screen.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><img alt="" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c3/Joseph_Mallord_William_Turner%2C_English_-_The_Burning_of_the_Houses_of_Lords_and_Commons%2C_October_16%2C_1834_-_Google_Art_Project.jpg/640px-Joseph_Mallord_William_Turner%2C_English_-_The_Burning_of_the_Houses_of_Lords_and_Commons%2C_October_16%2C_1834_-_Google_Art_Project.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 8pt; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Painting of the Burning of the Houses of Lords and Commons<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" />in 1834</span></i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">How close were Catesby and his co-conspirators to succeeding?</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Given the fact that Guy Fawkes, along with his hoard of gunpowder, was discovered by the King’s men just a few hours before the fuse was due to be lit, some might say that the plot came very close to succeeding. Further investigation, however, reveals a very different story. Before its dramatic conclusion in the early hours of 5 November 1605, the Gunpowder Plot had been in the planning stages for over 18 months. During this unusually long gestation period, the original five conspirators found it increasingly difficult to deflect suspicion and keep their scheme under wraps. As time went on, necessity forced them to reveal their plans to various friends and family members. On 26 October 1605, an anonymous letter was sent to one Lord Monteagle warning him not to attend the upcoming opening of Parliament as ‘they shall receive a terrible blow this Parliament and yet they shall not see who hurts them.’ Monteagle raised the alarm and the King was informed. The Gunpowder Plot was, thanks to this letter, discovered a full nine days previously.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">What would blowing up the Houses of Parliament have done to the political landscape of the day?</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Had the powder combusted properly and wiped out prominent members of the royal family and the country’s political elite as planned, I doubt the country’s political landscape would have greatly changed in the long term. Indeed, the fact that Catesby believed otherwise was naïve in the extreme. Common sense dictates that the powerful Protestant ruling families would surely have hunted down the perpetrators, while Protestant vigilantes, galvanised by the act of terror inflicted on their fellow men in Westminster, would have sought revenge against ordinary Catholic civilians. If anything, a successful Gunpowder Plot would have made life worse for English Catholics, not better.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">How would the British Catholics have reacted to the untimely death of the Protestant James I?</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The majority of 17th century Catholics would have viewed Catesby’s actions in the same way Northern Irish Catholics reacted to the murderous campaigns of the IRA during the Troubles – that is, with abhorrence. Also, it’s worth pointing out that James was not uniformly despised by the Catholic community; many still held out hope that he would be persuaded to lessen the restrictions placed on the Roman religion by his predecessors. After all, his mother was the Catholic martyr, Mary Queen of Scots. Protestants would have been outraged by the regicide, and I believe many would have taken the law into their own hands in an attempt to exact revenge. It’s not difficult to envisage an eruption of anti-Catholic riots throughout the country.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">How would the assassination of James I have affected Britain’s relationship with other countries?</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">By the 17th century, relations between Protestant Britain and Catholic Spain had been strained for decades. Tensions had begun to escalate during the initial stages of the Reformation when Henry VIII divorced Catherine of Aragon [daughter of Spain’s Ferdinand and Isabella], and had peaked with the failed invasion by the Spanish Armada in 1588. Even after 1588, some English Catholics continued to hope that the Spanish would one day succeed in overthrowing the country’s Protestant rulers. This intervention never materialised, thanks in large part to the strain imposed on Spain’s military resources by the Dutch wars.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">It’s difficult to say how Spain would have reacted had Catesby’s scheme borne fruit. Perhaps it would have tipped the balance in favour of the longed-for Spanish intervention. Maybe Philip III would have sought to capitalise on the plotters’ triumph by attempting to install himself or a member of his family on the English throne – after all, his sister, Isabella, had once been touted by some prominent English Catholics as a possible successor to Elizabeth I. But while this scenario was possible, I don’t believe it was very probable. By this point in the proceedings, Spain had largely abandoned English Catholics to their fate – indeed, the court of Philip III had previously declined to offer Catesby any assistance in his quest to mount a rebellion. More broadly, I think the Gunpowder Plot would have had a significant impact on Britain’s relations with the wider world, in that Catesby’s scheme may well have put paid to the country’s early</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">The success of the gunpowder plot would have had a significant impact on Britain’s relations with the wider world</i><img alt="" src="https://www.howitworksdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/map.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">James I was a Scottish King – if the assassination had succeeded how would Scotland have reacted?</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">This is an interesting point to consider. James had been Scotland’s monarch for 35 years before succeeding Elizabeth I to the throne in 1603. And given that Scottish Calvinists had gone to great lengths to install James as king in the first place, I doubt they would have taken his assassination lightly. A Scottish invasion of England may well have been the result.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Who would have been the most likely successor to James I if a Catholic monarch was placed on the throne? </u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In a bid to add legitimacy to his coup, it was Catesby’s intention to install James and Anne’s nine-year-old daughter, Princess Elizabeth, on the throne as a puppet monarch. Catholic guardians would have been appointed to oversee her re-education in the Roman faith, while a regent would look after affairs of state until she came of age. She would then have been married off to a Catholic prince from one of Europe’s royal dynasties, re-establishing a Catholic line of succession. Again, this was a very ill-conceived plan, as it was unlikely Elizabeth would have been as pliable and cooperative as Catesby hoped.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">What if James I had died but the Protestants retained control – who would have been crowned then?</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">James’s eldest son, Henry, was due to attend the opening of Parliament along with his parents on the fateful day. Assuming he too had been killed, the next in line to the throne was the youngest son, Charles [Elizabeth would have been precluded from the line of succession thanks to the laws of male primogeniture]. Just as Catesby had planned with Elizabeth, the Protestant establishment would have looked after the boy’s, and indeed the country’s interests until he reached the age where he could rule in his own right.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">What effect would either outcome have had on the future lineage of Britain?</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In the case of Charles, there would have been no impact on the future line of succession, as he was destined to take the throne anyway. In 1612, he became heir apparent when his older brother, Prince Henry, died of suspected typhoid fever [Charles eventually succeeded his father to the throne on the latter’s death in 1625].</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">It is less clear what would have happened to the line of succession had Catesby succeeded in his plan to install Princess Elizabeth as monarch. Would Charles have tried to oust his sister once he came of age? Possibly. Perhaps Elizabeth would have willingly abdicated in favour of her brother, given he was the rightful heir. We shall never know. Elizabeth was, however, to leave her mark on England’s royal lineage. When the House of Stuart eventually gave way to the House of Hanover [childlessness having done what a revolution, a beheading, and an abdication had failed to do], it was Anne’s grandson, George I, who became the first Hanoverian king. There’s a pleasing synchronicity in that, wouldn’t you say?</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Besides James I, there were some notable historic figures present in the house on the day. What would the knock-on effect of these collateral deaths have had on the history books?</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Had the architects of the Gunpowder Plot achieved their aims, the untimely death of Francis Bacon would have been a significant loss to posterity. A polymath who wrote prolifically, his works greatly influenced the development of philosophical, scientific, and legal thinking. The biggest loser, however, would have been our English language. Both James VI and Bishop Bancroft had a part to play in the compilation of the King James Version of the Bible (KJV), which was destined to form part of the bedrock on which our modern language is built. Although work had started on the KJV in 1604, it wasn’t finished until 1611, and you could argue that the project might never have reached completion had these two men perished in November 1605. The other great contributor to our language was, of course, William Shakespeare. It is sobering to consider that, without the patronage of King James [who funded Shakespeare’s acting company, The King’s Men], some of the greatest works of dramatic tragedy may never have been written. Certainly Macbeth, written in 1606 and widely thought to have been inspired by the Gunpowder Plot, may never have seen the light of day – because, as the contemporary writer Sir John Harington famously said, “Treason doth never prosper. What’s the reason? Why, if it prosper, none dare call it treason.”</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">What would Britain have been like today, politically and religiously?</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">When all is said and done, I don’t believe Protestantism would have been supplanted had the Houses of Parliament gone up in flames on that November day in 1605. I think the country’s Protestant majority would have scuppered Catesby’s plans, and Charles would have succeeded his father to the English and Scottish thrones. Puritanism may have flourished as a reaction to the atrocity, and perhaps Oliver Cromwell would never have had his day in the sun. From a global perspective, the picture may well have been very different. Had the political upheaval resulting from a successful Gunpowder Plot diverted attentions away from colonial expansion, the British Empire may never have got off the ground. It is entirely feasible to suggest that country might never have become a major player on the world stage; instead it may have been destined to play second fiddle in a French or Spanish speaking world. In short, Great Britain might never have achieved the requisite degree of greatness to justify its lofty name.</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" />Read more: <a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/920/guy-fawkes-succeeded-1605#ixzz4Vx3sTbo9" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #003399; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/920/guy-fawkes-succeeded-1605#ixzz4Vx3sTbo9</a></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-79828753670869284362017-01-16T10:42:00.001-08:002017-01-16T10:42:43.584-08:00<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/886/america-lost-war-independence" target="_blank">What If: America Lost the War For Independence</a></span><br />
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<img alt=" " src="http://nationalinterest.org/files/styles/main_image_on_posts/public/main_images/1280px-Washington_Crossing_the_Delaware_by_Emanuel_Leutze%2C_MMA-NYC%2C_1851.jpg?itok=YhvnkZop" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">What if America’s most patriotic holiday was not July 4, but December 25?</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">It could have been the day the British crown got its best Christmas gift ever. All it would have taken was a simple slip by a colonial rebel. His rifle, crashing to the frozen ground, discharges… the shot echoing clearly through the crisp, clear winter night. On the river banks, the alarm sounds. The Hessian garrison at Trenton rouses to its posts. Washington’s troops are trapped crossing the Delaware.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The British counterattack drives the rebel forces from their encampment at Valley Forge. George Washington is captured. The Continental Army evaporates. The rebellion is crushed. What would life be like today, in a world in which there never was a United States of America?</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">There are a multitude of quite plausible scenarios in which the colonials might have lost their war with the mighty British Empire. After all, Washington’s strategy was to win by not losing. The aim was to hold on until the British gave up or the French stepped in. That strategy frayed nerves repeatedly at the Continental Congress—from the retreat at Long Island to the near disaster at the Battle of Monmouth, to Benedict Arnold’s betrayal at West Point. Washington came too close to losing his army on more than one occasion.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">If, in any these instances the Continental Army had been destroyed—not just defeated—would anyone today be celebrating the signing of the American Declaration of Independence? The answer, most likely, is yes. But the path to independence would have been far bloodier—for both nations. Here is why.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Oddly, American independence worked in Great Britain’s favor. In practical terms (and Canada aside) Washington’s triumph gave the crown one less continent to worry about in its decade long struggle with France for the mastery of Europe. With the American Revolution ended, the pushy colonials looked after themselves and stopped trying to snag Canada. Better yet, they were pretty good trading partners. All this was to the good for the crown, because the British could focus their energies on the looming life-and-death scrap with France.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Now, let’s replay the tape. Instead of America being a non-issue, the British win and are forced to treat the defeated colonists like a garrison state. Decades of endless guerilla warfare follow—draining the British treasury.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">And, make no mistake—even if the French had not dropped a lot of cash helping out the colonial cause, Louis was probably headed for the guillotine sooner or later anyway—and then came the real threat: Napoleon.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In this situation, North America becomes a major theater of conflict in the Napoleonic wars, not just a sideshow. No longer a struggle between freedom and tyranny, it is a war for supremacy between two imperial powers. It’s the kind of war in which the blood really flows. Everywhere. And in the New World, the resulting brawl for supremacy would have made the French and Indian Wars look like peace talks.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">When all the killing was done, America would still have been somebody’s just another bloodied colony. And worse, the rest of the world might not have made out any better. Maybe, Napoleon would have never had his Waterloo.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Yet, sooner or later liberty would have triumphed. John Locke, Patrick Henry and others had already lit the fire of freedom in the minds of men. The principles of natural law and natural rights had been articulated, succinctly and supremely in the Declaration. It was a document that could not be forgotten, even in (temporary) defeat. There is little likelihood that the flame of freedom that it sparked and fanned could ever be fully extinguished.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Want proof? Well, the idea of liberty did survive Napoleon, and the American Civil War, and the Great War, and Hitler and more. Freedom is hard to kill. And, eventually, America would have had its 4th of July in one form or another.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">But, I like this form: a great nation that reaches from sea to shining sea; an exceptional nation that serves as an example to all of the world that sovereignty of the people is not just novel idea, it is the salvation of mankind.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">With all its warts, with all its stumbles forward and all its backsliding, America still shines as a beautiful and noble idea. I am glad General Washington won at Trenton, that he prevailed at Yorktown, and that Independence Day today stands for something that is worthy of our admiration.</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br /></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-56064410290975894632017-01-16T10:41:00.001-08:002017-01-16T10:41:17.171-08:00<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/866/civil-war-different" target="_blank">What if: The Civil War had a different ending</a><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://nationalinterest.org/files/styles/main_image_on_posts/public/main_images/Battle_of_Atlanta.png?itok=7xhpQNgZ" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Some American conservatives appear to revel in discussing what the world might be like if the United States didn’t exist—a sentiment today indulged by Dinesh D’Souza’s new film “America.” Nevertheless, while Americans are justifiably proud of their past, and of their contributions to the world, independence for England’s North American colonies was bound to happen sooner or later. And the nation that emerged was likely to draw heavily upon its colonial master’s classically liberal political and legal traditions, though possibly expressed differently if the country emerged later with other leaders. Still, this world-without-America speculation can be both thought-provoking and entertaining. In that spirit, as Americans celebrate July 4, they might also consider an independence day that didn’t happen and how different America and the world might be if it had.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">If the American Civil War had ended other than it did—or if the federal government and the northern states decided to pursue a negotiated separation from the south—residents of the Confederate States of America (CSA) might still be celebrating their Independence Day over one hundred and fifty years later, perhaps on December 24 (the day in 1860 when South Carolina declared its independence) or on February 9 (when, in 1861, the thirteen southern states formed the CSA). It is, of course, impossible to know what the USA, the CSA, and the world would look like after this alternate history—there are too many variables over too much time. But it is an interesting thought experiment nonetheless.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">For someone who lives in northern Virginia and works in Washington, DC, one of the first possible consequences that comes to mind is a local one. Would Washington have remained the capital of the United States? On one hand, the capital was already here, meaning that the federal government had invested significantly in infrastructure and buildings. On the other hand, in an environment of enduring tension between the USA and the CSA, the city would have been exposed and hard to defend. Many key national symbols did not exist yet; when the Civil War started, the Washington Monument had been sitting unfinished and essentially untouched for seven years. Moreover, Washington only became the capital because of a political compromise between northern and southern states that relocated the nascent government from Philadelphia. Had things turned out differently, might modern-day U.S. politicians be denouncing “Philadelphia bureaucrats” and “Market Street lobbyists”?</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">While a relatively minor issue, the American capital’s location highlights how central the USA-CSA relationship would have been in any subsequent history. A negotiated separation may well have preserved the deep economic interdependencies between north and south, avoided and contained the passions expressed during the Civil War, and allowed for a form of peaceful coexistence. Even in this most favorable case, however, Richmond would likely have been fertile ground for European powers seeking to constrain the northern states. At the same time, strong abolitionist sentiment in the north would have continued. Enduring slavery in the south could well have provoked considerable political tension if not armed skirmishes along the border if committed northern activists attempted to maintain and expand the Underground Railroad for escaped slaves or even to foment rebellion inside the CSA. This could well have led to war sooner or later.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Conversely, if the Civil War ground on indefinitely without a northern victory or if the south managed a decisive battlefield success, perhaps at Gettysburg, it could have broken the north’s will and won independence in an eventual political settlement. Had this happened, the two new neighbors would have started with a much more tense and bitter relationship. And while the north would have been militarily and economically dominant, the south would have had important leverage of its own—including, for example, control of the Mississippi River Delta and therefore of the river trade that proved so important in developing the American Midwest. The CSA would also have been in a better geographical position to exercise influence in the Caribbean Sea, though it would have needed a major naval construction program to succeed at this. Some leaders in Richmond might have seen this as strategically essential, however, to protect the southern states’ access to international markets and to block U.S. or European navies from the Gulf of Mexico.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The latter point raises an interesting question: if the CSA endured as an independent country, would the 1898 Spanish-American War have taken place in the same way? The war resulted from America’s intervention in Cuba to support a rebellion against Spain. But what if the CSA supported the Cuban rebels, rather than Washington, attempting to secure its southern coast with a friendly government in Cuba? Would the United States have aligned with Spain, perhaps allowing Spain to keep its empire a bit longer? Or what if the USA supported the rebels but the CSA sided with Spain, perhaps in exchange for territorial concessions in some of its other colonies? Would the United States still have ended up controlling Spain’s imperial possessions, including the Philippines? If not, would the USA been equally concerned about—and equally capable in resisting—Imperial Japan’s expansion in Southeast Asia?</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Moving into the twentieth century, it is difficult to know how long the CSA could have sustained the abominable institution of slavery. Would the south evolved into an apartheid-style society by doing away with legal slavery but maintaining second-class status for its former slaves? Absent external pressure, a two-tiered discriminatory society could well have survived for some time, as others did elsewhere. Would the north have attempted to apply pressure on the south to change its ways?</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Meanwhile, how would the north have evolved? If the strongest advocates for a weaker federal government had left the union rather than remaining within it, would the United States have tilted further in the direction of federal power and northeast/liberal political and social values, with the populous east more easily dominating independent-minded settlers in the American West? If so, how would the US political system have reacted to the rise of the labor movement? Might the USA today look more like European Union countries today?</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">World War I, World War II, and the Cold War could also have been quite different. Germany’s Zimmermann Telegram, an intercepted diplomatic message outlining a strategy to recruit Mexico to support Berlin in World War I with promises of reclaiming lost territory, shows clearly that the Central Powers were thinking about how to distract the United States and limit its involvement in the war. A USA-CSA rivalry on the North American continent would have provided a much bigger opportunity for mischief. </span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In the 1930s, would southern political leaders have sympathized with Adolf Hitler’s racist worldview? By this time, the CSA would have been hard-pressed to call itself a democracy if a white minority enjoyed substantially greater political and economic rights than what could by then have become a black majority (the Confederate States were about 40% black at the time of the Civil War). Could World War II have led to a replay of the Civil War with deadlier weapons and with bombers attacking USA and CSA cities? Would the allies have been able to defeat Hitler if the United States couldn’t contribute as many troops, ships and planes to the invasion of Italy and to D-Day while fighting off a hostile neighbor or at least maintaining large garrisons? Or, equally ominous, could Josef Stalin’s Red Army have ground its way across Europe to seize Berlin unaided, perhaps only by 1947, avoiding the division of Germany but producing a united communist German Democratic Republic? Would France have then fallen to communism too? The Cold War could have become a time of Soviet containment of the United States, rather than the reverse, with only America’s atomic bombs preventing an attempted invasion.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">By the 1960s and 1970s, the CSA would probably have faced severe challenges as colonial systems collapsed globally under pressure from national liberation movements. What we call the civil rights movement today could have been far bloodier, looking much more like a revolution. The USA’s response could have been decisive.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In US politics, the country would have done without many if not most of its post-war presidents. On the Democratic side, there would be no Lyndon Johnson (Texas), Jimmy Carter (Georgia) or Bill Clinton (Arkansas), though one can imagine Johnson in particular as an influential politician in the CSA. On the Republican side, no “southern strategy”—something that could have significantly affected Richard Nixon and every subsequent Republican candidate (and, of course, who became the Republican candidates).</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">If the CSA still existed in 2014, it seems likely that U.S. foreign policy today would be profoundly different. Likely without the clear military successes and the resulting strong sense of self-assurance that developed during the twentieth century, America would be a much smaller place in not only territory, but in aspirations. Perhaps ironically, it might be even more moralistic in its foreign policy rhetoric if it lived next to an oppressive and discriminatory state for well more than a century—but much less able to impose its moral vision on others.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">This provokes a final thought. The American Civil War was a profoundly destructive experience for the United States, north and south. In 2014, many Americans regret its excesses, such as General William Tecumseh Sherman’s brutal burning of Atlanta and his self-consciously terrifying March to the Sea. More important, however, is that no small number of Americans would likely support U.S. military intervention in someone else’s civil war to stop similar conduct today while simultaneously believing that our own civil war, however bloody, was necessary and that the united country—north and south—is the better for it. Indeed, while no one can know what could have happened instead, it is not difficult to envision admittedly speculative outcomes that could have been much worse. Taking all of this into account, Americans would do well to remember their own experience with civil war and to employ a degree of moral humility in forming judgments about today’s global conflicts—particularly if they think that General Sherman turned out to be “on the right side of history.”</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-91081342998315089242017-01-15T10:54:00.000-08:002017-01-15T10:54:29.774-08:00What if: Titanic Never Sank in 1912<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/1034/titanic-never-sank-1912" target="_blank">What if: Titanic Never Sank in 1912</a></span><br />
<b><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></b><img alt="" src="http://img06.deviantart.net/8929/i/2012/334/8/b/titanic_by_kipfox32-d5mmy69.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">It is the most frequently asked question in the history of maritime disasters; What if the RMS Titanic never sank? What would have happened to her?</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">While we will never know the answer to this question, certainly we can look at the most logical scenarios. Long story short, you might be disappointed. Let's pretend the ship did not sink. Instead the vessel arrives safely on Wednesday April 17, 1912 to much fan fare and celebration as the World's Largest Vessel. After that, Titanic would would begin a downward spiral of obscurity and routine.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Bluntly the vessel, through its natural lifespan, would have only lived for twenty-five to thirty years. She would have quietly met the same fate as any other vessel from that era, the scrapyard. Ironically, the only reason she's existed for over 100 years is because she lies at the bottom of the ocean.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">1913. No Longer the World's Largest Vessel.</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The RMS Titanic, upon completing her maiden voyage, would have returned to Southampton several weeks later in early May 1912, relishing in her title as the World's Largest Liner. Yet she would only hold this honor for less than a year. Two ships, completely overlooked by history, were near completion during the maiden voyage of Titanic, the RMS Aquitania and SS Imperator.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">In reaction to White Star's announcement of the Olympic Class, Cunard immediately ordered the RMS Aquitania to reclaim its market cap. Construction began in December 1910 and launching just weeks away when Titanic's voyaged. The Aquitania was 901 feet long, twenty feet longer than Titanic.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Responding to Cunard's new vessel, the Hamburg America Line's, SS Imperator. This colossal 906 foot, 52,000 ton vessel, a full twenty feet longer and 4,000 tons heavier, would shatter Titanic's hold as the World's Largest Liner regardless. Like Aquitania, construction neared completion during Titanic's maiden voyage.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">With the spotlight now off Titanic, the ship would begin an unremarkable career as a 'typical' ship of the line.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">1914. Lusitania Disaster.</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Unfortunately, the only effective means of regulation change is that of a tragic loss of life. If Titanic had not sunk, then the disaster hailed as the most famous maritime disaster in history would have likely gone to RMS Lusitania. Torpedoed in the early days of World War I, the Lusitania was a passenger vessel under the neutral American flag.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Without the Titanic Disaster to change maritime regulations at an earlier point in time, the Lusitania likely would retain only sixteen lifeboats for the 1,900 people on board. Sinking in eighteen minutes, the loss of life would have been catastrophically worse than it's recorded number. The steerage passengers would have also been locked below decks amongst other atrocities.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Picture of Lusitania sinking</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt=" " src="https://usercontent1.hubstatic.com/6610990_f520.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">1914-1918. World War I</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">As with the fate of the Olympic, Mauretania, Aquitania and the Imperator, the Titanic would have likely found herself pressed into service as either a troupe transport or hospital ship by the British government. Repainted in WWI era 'dazzle paint' to confuse U-Boats, stripped of her magnificent internal fittings and portholes sealed with steel, the Titanic would have been stuffed to the breaking point with nearly 6,000 troops at a time.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Charging back and forth across the Atlantic, dodging U-Boat attacks, rescuing other sinking ships, and even near collisions with other friendlies, the Titanic would have been hailed for her critical roll in the war effort. Like her sister Olympic, the Titanic would have transported nearly a quarter million troops, burned about as many tons of coal and traveled as many miles. She may even have earned a nick name. Olympic's was 'Old Reliable'.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Britannic, the third sister of the Olympic class would become the only vessel of the class to sink. Striking a mine in the Mediterranean Sea, the Britannic foundered in less than one hour.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Picture of HMHS Britannic, the third Titanic sister.</i><img alt=" " src="https://usercontent1.hubstatic.com/6611046_f1024.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">The sinking of the HMHS Britannic after hitting a mine.</i><img alt="" src="https://d1dd4ethwnlwo2.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Britannic-sinking-.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Picture of Olympic during WWI as a troop carrier. Note the 'dazzle' paint. Titanic would have regaled a similar design.</i><img alt=" " src="https://usercontent1.hubstatic.com/6611040_f1024.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">1918-1934. Post War Service.</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Providing the ship escaped destruction herself, the Titanic would have been returned to civilian service at the conclusion of the war. In 1918 a modernization refit would have been completed giving her a new lease on life. Interior fittings would be modernized, additional staterooms and safety features added. Most importantly, the ship would have been converted to burn oil rather than coal. Oil was cheaper, cleaner and reduced personnel costs. These refits could have increased her gross tonnage to 49,000, briefly reclaiming the title as the Largest British Liner afloat by outweighing the longer SS Imperator.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">During the 1920s the ship would have enjoyed a successful career as an express passenger liner attracting the rich and famous competing regularly with her sister Olympic for records and travel. Yet both vessels would not receive much fame. In fact, most attention would have been thrust onto the aging RMS Mauretania as the surviving sister of the RMS Lusitania. Which in this reality would have been the Greatest Maritime Disaster. Titanic may have had the occasional collision with a smaller vessel as did Olympic but nothing else exciting.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The mid 1920s saw changes in immigration law resticting the number of people allowed to enter the United States each year. This affected all passenger lines. 3rd Class passenger travel was the bread and butter of the shipping lanes and justified the need for such enormous ships. The White Star Line would have sent both Titanic and Olympic back to the shipyard for yet another modernization refit as it rethought its marketing strategy. This strategy added a fourth class, the Tourist Class, to the vessel's accommodations.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">New common rooms and state rooms would be again added. Both ships' interior fittings would be again modernized including private bathrooms for all 1st class passengers. The dining saloon would have been expanded to include a dance floor and other entertainment services. From 1929 to 1934, Titanic would have continued its passenger and tourist travel.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">1934. Merger and Retirement.</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The end of the mighty Titanic would begin in 1934 with the merger of the White Star Line and long time rival Cunard. The Great Depression all but killed passenger and tourist service, forcing many lines to bankruptcy.. Encouraged by the British government, the merger helped secure government funding for the construction of the RMS Queen Mary and RMS Queen Elizabeth. The newly merged company found itself with a fleet of surplus liners many of which were old and obsolete. The oldest ships in the fleet at this point would be the thirty-year-old RMS Mauretania, the twenty-three year old RMS Olympic and, in this case, the twenty-two year old RMS Titanic.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Saving Titanic or Olympic?</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Say there was some possibility that one Olympic Class liner was being considered for modernization. The biggest question would have been which one? How well has the vessel physically aged? Does the vessel have a recorded history of excessive mechanical problems? Will one vessel be more cost effective to modernize than the other? These are just some of the factors that would have been considered before a decision was made.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Olympic began suffering metal fatigue in her upper superstructure in the 1920s. Cracks appeared along the expansion joins and bulkheads, a symptom common in riveted ships. It is likely that Titanic, with its heavier construction and fittings would have had a bigger strain on her superstructure.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Picture of Olympic and Mauretania awaiting scrapping (1934)</i><img alt=" " src="https://usercontent2.hubstatic.com/6611291_f520.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">The Scrapyard</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Their internal fittings would be auctioned off and the ships would be sold one by one to the highest bidder for scrapping. Mauretania was sold in 1935 and scrapped in 1936. The Olympic was sold in 1935. Talks amongst her new owners included conversion into a hotel in France but those talks failed. She was sold again to a member of Parliament who bought the ship for the sole purpose of scrapping her. Scrapping was completed in 1937. There is no doubt that the Titanic would have met a similar fate. The Great Depression would have prevented any chance of the ship returning to active passenger service and the costs of converting her to a stationary hotel would have been too great. In an attempt to create some short termed jobs during the depression era, Titanic would have been scrapped. In so doing, joining her sister in an unremarkable and somewhat insulting death, a fraction of the glory the ship would achieve when she sank on her maiden voyage April 15, 1912." </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br /></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-65805800341160479622017-01-13T08:00:00.001-08:002017-01-13T08:00:21.995-08:00What if: 5 Operation Rheinübung ("Rhine Exercise") scenarios <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">What if: 5 Operation Rheinübung ("Rhine Exercise") scenarios<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Operation Rheinübung ("Rhine Exercise"), the sortie into the Atlantic by the German battleship Bismarck and heavy cruiser Prinz Eugen on May 18th to May 27th 1941 could have ended different such as: What would have happened if Bismarck had arrived in Brest? or would having the Tirpitz along have changed anything, here are 5 hypothetical scenarios in which Operation Rheinübung could have ended differently that what happen in OTL.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="https://i1.wp.com/www.catchthispilum.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/52_bismarck_michel_guyot_1.jpg?w=743" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Scenarios I: Bismarck escapes the British net and reaches Brest on 28 May 1941.</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Let's say that the fatal torpedo hit in the rudders did not occur, and the Bismarck entered in Brest on the following day. After sinking the Mighty Hood and four days of continuous chase, Bismarck's crew would have been received as heroes. Possibly even a welcome greater than that Prien and the men of U-47 received after sinking the Royal Oak in October 1939. The victory would have gone without any doubt to the Germans, although their primary objective (sink British merchant shipping) wouldn't have been accomplished. Therefore, despite of damaging the prestige of the Royal Navy and angering Mr. Churchill (who probably would have fired a few of his Admirals), from the operational point of view, Bismarck's sortie would still be somewhat of a failure. Moreover, due to the damage received in the Denmark Strait and the following torpedo hits, the Bismarck would have had to enter dry dock for repairs. This would frustrate her prompt return to the Atlantic as the battleship could not be utilized again for at least the next two months.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Assuming the RAF would not damage the Bismarck again at Brest, the ship could resume its operations in the autumn, and maybe try to join the Tirpitz sailing from Germany. Otherwise, it is likely that Bismarck, together with Scharnhorst, Gneisenau and Prinz Eugen would retreat to Germany through the English Channel early in 1942. With all the battleships back at home, the Bismarck could be then sent to Norway and operate together with the Tirpitz against the Allied Arctic convoys in 1942-1943. That would have tied down even more Allied warships in Scapa Flow, but that is another story and I won't go any further on that.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Scenarios II: Bismarck escapes undamaged and gets lost in the Atlantic after sinking the Hood.</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Now let's say Bismarck and Prinz Eugen receive little or no damage during the Battle of the Denmark Strait. They then reach the Atlantic and break contact with the pursuing British forces. The German ships could then concentrate on the British convoys. The use of a powerful ship such as the Bismarck for merchant raiding offered great promises of success indeed, as she could tie down the British battleship escorting a convoy therefore allowing the Prinz Eugen to attack with impunity. Both German warships could have managed to sink 20-30 ships (Scharnhorst and Gneisenau sank 22 in two months) and then return home in August. That of course wouldn't have changed the course of the war, but as the British were already suffering heavy losses to the U-boats, a "few more tons" of valuable shipping lost to surface ships could make the difference and force the Admiralty to take further measures in this regard.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Scenarios III: Operation Rheinübung: Bismarck and Tirpitz sail together in the spring of 1941.</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">As we already know, the battleship Tirpitz had been commissioned on February 1941, and was not ready for combat operations in the spring of 1941. On the other hand, it is interesting to note that the British battleship Prince of Wales had been commissioned in late March 1941, and spent only a couple of weeks of trials when she engaged Bismarck in the Denmark Strait. This ship was far from being 100% battle ready and even had dockyard workers on board. Nevertheless, she managed to score three hits on Bismarck. So, it is quite reasonable to believe that Tirpitz would have added a far greater punch than Prinz Eugen, whether she was fully ready for combat or not. Moreover, Bismarck and Tirpitz would have formed a more homogeneous pair such as Scharnhorst and Gneisenau, and, if one Bismarck caused such a fuss, it is not hard to imagine what two Bismarcks could have done operating together in the Atlantic. The Royal Navy would still have more warships available, but the balance changes a bit as the British heavy units now have to face sixteen 38 cm guns installed in armoured floating platforms that can move at 30 knots. In fact, the real problem for the Royal Navy wouldn't have been the numbers, but the capability to concentrate a strong, and above all, fast enough battleship force in the right place at the right time to face the German warships. The famous motto often applied on Bismarck: "faster than anything stronger and stronger than anything faster", perfectly illustrates what the Royal Navy has to deal with here.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Let's assume things had developed as originally planned for with Bismarck and Prinz Eugen in May 1941. In order to have a chance of a victorious outcome, Admiral Tovey would have most likely changed the disposition of his force and would have reinforced Vice Admiral Holland's battle group with an additional warship (Repulse?), while he himself stayed on King George V which would join the slow Rodney later. So, Bismarck and Tirpitz would have fought against Hood, Prince of Wales, and Repulse in the Denmark Strait. Interesting engagement, isn't it? Whatever the outcome of that battle could be, if the German battleships managed to reach the Atlantic, then Tovey would have to rely on carrier air strikes to damage or slow down at least one them. This wouldn't have been an easy task either as the Swordfish now have to face the AA artillery of two warships, and as one can imagine a lucky torpedo hit in a rudder does not occur every day.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Finally, had Admiral Lütjens managed to shake off his pursuers and reach the Atlantic in condition to wage war on the British merchant shipping, the situation would be quite different than his earlier sortie with Scharnhorst and Gneisenau. The Bismarck and Tirpitz could attack any British convoy, even those escorted by a battleship. The Royal Navy simply didn't have enough warships to protect every convoy against two battleships of this kind.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://i.imgur.com/19kzoSe.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Scenarios IV: The German Naval High Command mounts a combined operation with the battleships Bismarck and Tirpitz, and the aircraft carrier Graf Zeppelin in the Spring of 1941.</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">This is one of the most frequently asked questions among the public: What if Bismarck had sailed with the Tirpitz and the Graf Zeppelin? The answer is simple, if Bismarck and Tirpitz together already offer more than a threat to the Royal Navy, the addition of the aircraft carrier Graf Zeppelin definitely inclines the balance to the German side. It is not crazy to think about it. Launched on 8 December 1938, the Graf Zeppelin could have been ready for service long before the spring of 1941 if its construction hadn't been suspended in April 1940. Unfortunately for the Germans this carrier was never commissioned.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">Now, let's assume the Kriegsmarine sends the Bismarck together with Tirpitz and Graf Zeppelin to the Atlantic in the spring of 1941 to sink enemy shipping. The Graf Zeppelin, equipped with more than 40 aircraft (Bf 109T and Ju 87C Stuka), would not only have provided adequate air cover to the battle group, it would also have been able to launch air strikes on enemy merchantmen and warships if needed. The German carrier-based aircraft were far superior to their contemporary British counterparts, and the Bf 109 wouldn't have had any problem at all dealing with the old Swordfish and Fulmars, not to mention the big Catalinas. In addition, the Stuka dive bombers (with up to 1,000 kg/2,200 lbs. in bombs) could attack and inflict heavy damage on any British battleship force attempting to intercept the German battleships long before it could reach ballistic range. An embarked air wing permanently in the air, would have also helped with the reconnaissance, thus permitting to signal surface contacts to the battleships and U-boats, and a greater cooperation of all arms. This would have presented a big problem to the Royal Navy which most likely would have been unable to deal with such a powerful task force.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">The Graf Zeppelin was the best opportunity the Kriegsmarine had to turn the balance in its favour (especially in 1941), and not to put this ship in service was a great mistake. The lack of air support sealed the fate of excellent warships that were already difficult to sink without air cover, and that otherwise could hardly have been defeated.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/turtledove/images/a/a4/Grafzepplien.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20130120042529" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Scenarios V: Operation Rheinübung postponed until the autumn of 1941.</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px;">This possibility was actually considered by the German Naval High Command, although ultimately Grand Admiral Raeder opted not to do so. In the autumn of 1941, the Tirpitz would have been finally ready to sail with Bismarck. Now, we have the possibility of Bismarck and Tirpitz operating together (as in item 3 above), although this is not exactly the same case since the Royal Navy, too, would have strengthened its forces in the mean time. Still, the presence of Bismarck and Tirpitz in the autumn would have been a big threat with many chances of success, especially if we think that the war in the Pacific was about to begin and the Royal Navy would soon be forced to split its units. Although the best choice would have been to send Bismarck and Tirpitz in the spring, this possibility must also be taken into consideration.<a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/985/operation-rhein-rhine-exercise-scenarios" target="_blank">http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/985/operation-rhein-rhine-exercise-scenarios</a></span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br /></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-62117171078697123782016-12-17T00:42:00.005-08:002016-12-17T00:42:40.750-08:00What if: Sweden victory at Poltava (1709) <a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/914/sweden-victory-poltava-1709" target="_blank">What if: Sweden victory at Poltava (1709) </a><br />
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<span style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 12px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><img alt=" " src="https://weaponsandwarfare.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/poltava2.jpg" style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Part I: the Battle and how to get away with it</u><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">This particular matter has been discussed several times before by both professional historians and amateurs, but there's always room for another try. What If Sweden had won the </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Poltava" rel="nofollow" style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">battle of Poltava </a><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">on June 28th, 1709? Did the Swedes stand any chance of winning, and how were they planning to continue the war, had they won the battle?</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">The Battle of Poltava by Denis Martens the Younger (1726)<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></i><img alt="" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e9/Marten%27s_Poltava.jpg/640px-Marten%27s_Poltava.jpg" style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">One fact that we know is that due to the acute shortage of supplies, the Swedish high command had forsaken the idea of resuming the advance towards Moscow already before the battle. The only logical alternative was to withdraw the army from Ukraine back to Poland, and this was realized by field-marshal Carl Gustaf Rehnsköld and the King Carl XII himself, that much is clear. But, even still, to ensure the safe exit, the Tsar and his army had to be taken out first, the Swedes had to fight to get away. The plans for the battle are well-known. The Swedish infantry was to break through the Russian fortifications between the Forests of Iakovtsy and Budishchi, after which the cavalry was to proceed by cutting the Russian northward retreat route on the bank of Vorskla. The infantry would attack directly against the main Russian force, with the cavalry supporting the attack on the northern flank; thus, caught between the hammer and the anvil, with their backs against the river, the Russians would be totally destroyed and the Swedes would have a free journey back home.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">The chances of Swedish victory weren't good. The Swedes were seriously exhausted by the harsh winter and the campaigning of the previous year, whereas the Russians were rested and ready, and far better trained, led and armed than in Narva. Above all, the Russian artillery had an overwhelming superiority, with 102 guns on the field; the heavy pieces included twelve 8-pound and two 12-pound cannons, 20-pound and 40-pound howitzers, and one 20-pound and two 40-pound mortars, all with virtually unlimited ammunition. In contrast, Swedes had exactly four 3-pound cannons on the field, and the munitions were, quite simply, running out; the infantry and the artillery had enough firepower for one strike, after which all bets were off.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Aside the materiél shortage, the Swedish ordre de bataille went about as wrong as possible from the very beginning. Three regiments under general major Roos, a third of the Swedish infantry, were locked in a bloody and unnecessary assault against the third Russian fortress, eventually went astray, lost the contact with the main army and had to surrender. The initially succesful concentration of the Swedish cavalry ended with the squadrons caught in an absolute organizational chaos on the worst possible terrain between the forest of Budishchi and the nearby swamp. And finally, as general Adam Ludvig Lewenhaupt led the remaining 4'000 men to the final bayonet charge against 22'000 Russians, the left and the right flank of the Swedish infantry drifted apart, and the enemy was free to do a variation of the classic Cannae, encircling and eventually routing the Swedish army - but even at the last moment, it at least seemed that the Swedish assault just might make it, break the Russian ranks, force the enemy to retreat and win the day for the Carolins.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Now, let's do some vigorous handwaving and throw in the "if"-factors. Roos behaves less rigidly, and after the breakthrough, all of the infantry proceeds in an orderly formation directly against the Russian main army. The Swedish cavalry gets through succesfully, keeps its act together and backs up the final attack. The assault with cold weapons is well-ordered and succesful, and the Russians are smashed against Vorskla. Rehnsköld will no doubt give the Russians the same treatment he did in Fraustadt, which means that no prisoners will be taken. The entire Russian army of 44'000 men is destroyed/routed, those who try to surrender executed, Poltava stormed, and Tsar Peter forced to retreat from the scene (his hat was shot off his head during the battle in our timeline, so killing him might also be an option, but I'll save that variant for someone else). The summer of 1709 is beautiful, the Swedish armies remain unbeaten on the field, and the road is clear for them to withdraw in peace and cross the Dnepr safely at Perevolochna.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">The difficult march from Poltava back to Poland with low rations would undoubtedly take a heavy toll and bear a very close resemblance to the Napoleonic catastrophe hundred-and-two years later. What's more, the Swedes would be marching towards another fight; taking the direct route through the central parts of the Ukraine would mean a collision with the large Russian garrison stationed in Kiev. This could be avoided by taking the more southern route through Podolia, but even in that case, there'd be one more obstacle between the main army and general Krassow's troops in Jaroslowicze: general Goltz's Russian force, which was occupying Lwów with the support of the Lithuanian troops of hetman Sienawski. But well, let's be broad-minded and assume that the news of the victory will allow Krassow and his soldiers an opportunity of action. As soon as general Ridderhielm's regiments from Wismar (en route to Wolyn since March 1709, inevitably under another commander later on, since Ridderhielm would die in August 1709) arrive, Krassow takes Lwów and clears the stage for the triumphant return of Carl XII on, say, November 1709. As an estimate, ca. 10'000 men would have probably survived the march from Poltava to Poland. Roughly 50% casualties on the road back, with a total of 75% on the whole Russian campaign; not a good ratio, but still hell of a lot better than the total annihilation which took place in our history.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">The end result is that Carl XII has won yet another battle of epic proportions, but he still hasn't won the war. The Russian campaign of 1708-1709 has ended in a strategic defeat for Sweden, but the King can still claim victory; hardly anyone will notice the truth in the afterglow of Poltava. By the autumn of 1709, the Swedish King is once again in Poland and free to redeploy his forces wherever they're needed. The next subject to be examined is what kind of an impact the aftermath of Poltava would have on the international relations between the various European powers.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Part II:Swedish victory at Poltava, the Friends and the Enemies</u><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">One immediate political consequence of the Swedish victory at Poltava would undoubtedly be the entry of the Crimean Tatars and the Ottoman Empire in the war. Khan Devlet-Giray had expressed his enthusiasm to commence hostilities against the Tsar all through the summer of 1709, but the Porte had restrained him, preferring to wait for the outcome of the Ukrainian campaign first. In the history we remember, the struggle between grand vizier Corlulu Ali's doves, backed by Britain and Russia, and Devlet-Giray's hawks, backed by France and Sweden, ended with the victory of the latter party and the ascendancy of Baltaci Mehmet as the grand vizier in August 1710. In this alternate timeline, we can expect the talks in Bender to restart immediately after the battle, with the usual bribes and Stanislaw Poniatowski's infiltration of the court included, and the result would be an earlier Turkish attack against Russia; Poltava would provide a powerful argument for the war party, and the chance to exploit the situation and take revenge would simply be too good to pass. So, in this situation, the Tsar would be facing another threat from the south, at the time when his main army in Ukraine has just been destroyed. Considering that the Turks can throw in an army of ca. 150'000 men and were able to inflict a near-catastrophe on the Russians on Prut in 1711, the southern threat will most certainly require a good part of Peter's attention for the winter of 1709-1710. The difference to our timeline will be that this time around, the Ottomans will strike first, both on Prut and against Azov.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Regretfully, not even the victory at Poltava could save Sweden's Ukrainian allies. The destruction of Baturin by field-marshal Aleksandr Danilovich Menshikov in November 1708 and the destruction of the Sech itself by general Petr Ivanovich Iakovlev in May 1709 had already deprived the Zaporozhian Cossacks of any prospects of succesful resistance, and the Swedish command had used hetman Ivan Mazepa's 1'500 poor, depressed cossacks mostly as a cannon fodder during the Ukrainian campaign. Under hetman Pilip Orlik, the Cossacks would still continue to play a modest part in coalition with the Tatars - after the Russian occupation of Ukraine, a new Sech had been established in the mouth of Dnepr, on the Crimean territory - and back up the Turkish invasion with cavalry raids in 1709-1710, but it'd be little more than a prolonged death-struggle with no real hope of succeeding. Likewise, the last peasant uprisings following the rebellion of Kondrati Afanasevich Bulavin in the Don territories would inevitably be extinguished also in this alternate timeline.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Whereas the Turkish participation would be accelerated, it's fairly certain that with a major Russian defeat, Denmark-Norway would choose not to re-enter the war at this point. Thus, Öresund will remain open for Swedish commerce, there will be no Danish incursion in Skåne in November 1709, no Danish naval attacks against Swedish transports in the southern Baltic, and the Swedish forces raised by Magnus Stenbock in Skåne and Blekinge will be free for operations elsewhere. The Danes will certainly still continue the preparations for recommencing the hostilities and keep a watchful eye on the developments.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Poland-Saxony is another matter. Stanislaw Leszczynski's position was already crumbling well before Poltava and the Confederation of Sandomierz was beginning to raise its head once again, even though the few Polish supporters that August II had weren't all that willing to accept the return of the Saxon Elector unconditionally. However, in this alternate timeline, Stanislaw wouldn't have any urgent need to retreat, and without the support of field-marshal Menshikov's troops - who'd be either decimated in Ukraine or concentrated against the Turks by now - it's unlikely that August would dare to intervene alone in the winter of 1709-1710. Also, the Poles of Sandomierz could hardly pose anything more than a bloody nuisance at this point, and as soon as Carl XII returns, his personal presence within the Polish borders should be more than enough to keep Stanislaw on the throne, maintain order within the Rzeczpospolita and forestall all attacks from Saxony.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">The less important events in the periphery known as the Western Europe would most likely continue very much as in the history we remember. The outcome of Malplaquet on September 11th, 1709 will be similar to our timeline, the War of Spanish Succession will continue its due course and the autumn of 1710 will eventually bring the Tories back to power in Britain. Odds are that both Louis XIV and the Western Allies will once again approach the invincible King of Sweden, but in my opinion, Carl XII would, once again, refuse to join with either side.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">The rather different setup of the Great Northern War will still have some effects on the international European relations. Without the Saxon re-entry to the war and Krassow's subsequent retreat to Pomerania, there won't be any substantial Swedish military presence within the German borders, and thus no direct threat to the peace of the Empire and no diversion of German forces away from the Rhine. Consequently, as the maritime powers won't have any reason to become antagonized against Sweden, the Convention of The Hague won't take place in March 1710. Even if the war against France would prompt the Allies to take some similar action to secure the neutrality of the Empire, it's possible that Carl XII might choose to accept such an arrangement. In our timeline, he refused mostly because the settelement would have effectively interned the Swedish army in Pomerania and compromised his freedom of action in an already intolerable predicament; this would hardly be the case in a situation where Russia still remains as Sweden's only active enemy.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Likewise, it's a safe bet that the Baltic trade won't be as seriously disrupted as it was after our timeline's Poltava, and the Baltic naval stores will continue to be secured for the maritime powers. Despite the Naval Stores Act of 1705 and the continuing attempts of the Navy Board to develop Ireland and the North American colonies as suppliers of hemp, flax, tar and timber, Great Britain was still largely dependent on the resources from Estonia, Livonia and Finland at this time. This, of course, gives a certain diplomatic advantage with regards to Britain to anyone who controls the provinces, and the issue of who dominates the Baltic lands in 1710 will be dealt with more closely in the third part.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Part III: The Gains and the Losses</u><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Peter's Turkish distraction won't entirely deflect the Russians from pressing their goals on the Baltic. Field-marshal Boris Sheremetiev's army will certainly march against Kurland and lay siege on Riga in the autumn of 1709, and in the north, the Russians will also tighten the noose around Pernau (Pärnu) and Reval (Tallinn). Due to the commercial importance of Riga - see the previous part about the Livonian trade and the naval stores - and Sweden's plans of incorporating Kurland into the realm, the Swedes would definitely consider the Russian move on the Baltic as the most important threat to deal with. With the Danish and Saxon menaces not materializing in this alternate timeline, support from Stenbock and Krassow could, if not relieve, at least allow Riga to hold out until such time that Carl XII himself could arrive to take command of his armies; even in our timeline, Riga didn't surrender until July 1710. The presence of the King himself on the field would enable the Swedes to move their forces - which, by now, would include the remains of the main army, Krassow's troops, Ridderhielm's regiments from Wismar together with Swedish garrison troops from Elbing and Poznan, and possibly also Polish troops loyal to Stanislaw, a total of approx. 25'000-30'000 men - from Poland and counterattack in Kurland and Livonia, thus defeating the Russians once again in the Baltic provinces in the midwinter of 1709-1710. I know, the Swedes would be all the more exhausted, but with fresh reinforcements, they could still face Sheremetiev on numerically equal terms, and with Carl XII himself in command - well, the Swedes were able to win on far worse odds (for an example, witness Lewenhaupt against Sheremetiev in 1705).</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">At the beginning of 1710, Sweden is once again the master of Livonia. Since the province and the port of Riga are not under Russian occupation in this timeline, there will be no Swedish ban on the Livonian trade and no Swedish privateer activity to block the British commerce on the Baltic; thus, most of the deterioration which took place in the Anglo-Swedish relations in our timeline will be avoided. With the important exception of the tar port of Narva - occupied by the Russians in 1704 and blockaded by the Swedes ever since - the naval stores will remain under Swedish control, and Britain will continue to have a relatively easy access to its vital strategic resources. Sweden will also be a good deal more receptive towards the British commercial interests in this timeline. The first, aggressive attempt to extort Britain by raising the prices of tar in 1703 had already proven counterproductive, and during the following years the Stockholm tar company was starting to back down, considering it more reasonable not to irritate Britain for the sake of short-term financial gains.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">[As a side note, the renewed Swedish occupation of Kurland in 1710, together with their intention to annex the Duchy, might also result in a divergence in matrimonial relations; instead of the Russian Grand-Duchess Anna Ivanovna, the young Duke Friedrich Wilhelm (aetas 17) might instead be married to the Swedish Princess Ulrika Eleonora (aetas 22). I'm not making it canon just yet, even though the butterfly potential is very tempting.]</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Notwithstanding the Swedish military victory, it should be remembered that the Plague which infested the Baltic provinces in 1710 would be cutting swaths through their forces at this point, and the cost of sustaining the army on the field in wintertime would once again impose its own terms on the King. After the Russian destruction of the provinces - Dorpat (Tartu) was razed to the ground in 1708 and most of the rural population taken to captivity in central Russia - and the harvest disaster of 1708-1709, there'd be really no resources left to maintain the Swedish troops, and it's hard to see how the generalkrigskommissariat could provide the army with adequate rations from home, either. Most likely we'd see ca. 25-30% of the Swedish forces going down from diseases and starvation, and the hardships of the native population would be beyond imagination; at a guess, we might actually have a decent shot at the total extirpation of Latvians and Estonians as nations (in our timeline, ca. 70% of the population in Estonia and 50% in Livonia died from the Plague, starvation and war, and this time it would be, if anything, even worse). Also, the repeated victories over numerically superior Russian forces and the triumph over Tsar Peter himself at Poltava would no doubt seriously boost Carl XII's hubris. So, the King would be less and less likely to recognize the Tsar as his equal and turn down all proposals of mediation, which means that the war would continue to drag on and on...</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Further in the north, the Russian success would be guaranteed. General Georg Henrik Lybecker's expedition against St. Petersburg in the summer of 1708 had been a total fiasco, and admiral Fedor Apraksin's galley fleet had operated undisturbed on the Gulf of Finland. Regardless of the events in the south, Apraksin can still lay siege with 13'000 men on Viborg (Viipuri) in March 1710, while the King is still reasserting Sweden's presence in Poland and Livonia. Even without the Tsar's presence on the field, the city will have to surrender to the Russians by June 1710, with Kexholm (Käkisalmi) falling shortly afterwards. The Russian takeover of Viipuri will, regretfully, also have a severe impact on the above-described Swedish commercial relations, given that the town traditionally covered approximately one-third of the Swedish-Finnish tar exports. As in our timeline, the capture of Viipuri would no doubt be followed with a quiet period on the Finnish borders, during which the Russians will concentrate on the threats in the south/southwest and continue their naval buildup on Ladoga and Onega. Given Sweden's inability to counter the Russian naval superiority, the Finnish - and ultimately, Swedish - coastline would be dangerously exposed to the raids of Apraksin's archipelago fleet.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">(In my opinion, the absence of Danish participation in this alternate timeline still couldn't prevent the balance of naval power from swinging to Sweden's disfavour. Despite the treaty of Traventhal, Swedes would still have to keep most of their sailing fleet in the south just to watch out for a potential Danish attack and ensure that the lines of communication to Pomerania and the Baltic provinces remain open. It should also be remembered that the maritime powers were counting on Danish support against France, so Sweden couldn't rely on Britain's assistance in parrying the Danes. The Swedish battleships in the north can blockade the Russian ports, but will not be able to carry out any effective counterattacks on shallow waters. By 1710, Apraksin had hundred galleys and gunboats under his command, whereas the Swedish archipelago flotilla on the Gulf of Finland consisted of only twenty vessels - the pre-war Swedish concentration on the battle fleet efficiency had been something of a strategic miscalculation, ignoring the archipelago operations and the new threat from the east. The Russians would remain unchallenged in the archipelagoes and even though the size of the largely inexperienced Russian sailing fleet on the Baltic was still quite small - three battleships with a total displacement of 5'000 tons against the thirty-nine vessels and 58'000 tons of the Swedish navy - by 1715, it had increased to twenty-nine vessels with 34'000 tons, and by 1720, its size finally surpassed Sweden once and for all.)</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">The question what course the war would take after the succesful Swedish operations in the Baltic provinces will be answered in the fourth part of the story.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Part IV: The Death of the King</u><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">A quick summary of the events so far: the Russians have experienced a major defeat at Poltava and another one in the Baltic provinces, are dealing with an Ottoman threat from the south, and their allies aren't showing any sign of re-entering the war - but on the other hand, they can easily replace their losses, have conquered considerable territory in eastern Finland, their galley fleet operates freely in the Finnish archipelagoes and most importantly, the security of St. Petersburg is guaranteed. The Swedes are still unbeatable on the field, their armies have secured Kurland and Livonia, and the checks against their potential enemies are still holding - but on the other hand, they've had to forsake their invasion of central Russia, they've experienced severe losses, have little resources to replace them, and the King's determination to fight to the death is stronger than ever. So, what happens next? We'll close the loose ends in the south first.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">The Tsar's dealings with the Turks should be settled by the summer of 1710. Presumably, the war has been less dramatic in this alternate timeline. In our timeline, Peter's near-capture on Prut in 1711 resulted very much from his hasty and ill-prepared attack and equally hasty and unorganized retreat from the Danubian Principalities. The promises of support from the Princes of Moldavia and Valakia had made Peter to count on a general uprising of the Sultan's Christian subjects, which, however, did not materialize, and effectively destroyed whatever little chances of success the premature Russian attack may have had. This time the Ottomans have launched the offensive, and the Tsar is keeping in the defensive, so Peter has most likely kept a cooler head and managed to avoid getting caught. The initially favourable Turkish advance to the Ukraine will soon start to suffer from supply problems and organizational disintegration, with the Russians scorching everything to the ground and the Tatars pursuing their own goals. It won't take long until both sides will want to end the conflict as soon as possible, and the maritime powers, especially the Netherlands, will readily offer their mediation. Fearing that a potential Turkish victory over Russia might turn beneficial for France, The Hague dispatched Colyer to mediate the peace negotiations between Moscow and Constantinople in our timeline, and the same will no doubt happen also this time around. We can expect the treaty to be concluded sometime in April-May 1710, with terms broadly similar to our timeline; the Russians will have to give up their conquests on Azov, Taganrog and the Right-Bank Ukraine, and dismantle their fleet on the Don. Baltaci Mehmet can claim victory and concentrate on his secondmost important goal, the war against Venice, while the Tsar will once again be able to focus on Sweden.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">(Once again, there seems to be some butterfly potential here. The somewhat more dishonourable peace settlement of our timeline at least partly contributed to Baltaci Mehmet's dismissal by Ahmed III; after the Tsar had been totally at Grand Vizier's mercy on Prut, the peace terms were seen as awfully lenient to the Russians, which led the ulema to accuse Baltaci Mehmet of accepting bribes and betraying the Islam, so the Sultan had to sack him. Since the campaign has been slightly different in this alternate timeline - a hard-earned success rather than a victory thrown away - Baltaci Mehmet would most likely avoid these suspicions, emerge with a clean shield and maintain his position. What kind of an impact this would have on the Ottoman Wars against Venice and Austria - both of which would probably also be somewhat accelerated in this alternate timeline - is open for questions.)</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">(The Danubian Principalities are also in line for a possible divergence. As told above, the Russian victory at Poltava in our timeline and Peter's subsequent preparations for a campaign all the way to Constantinople prompted the rulers of Moldavia and Valakia to promise assistance for the Russians, which proved to be a fatal miscalculation. After the peace of Prut, the Ottomans supplanted the untrustworthy native princes with new rulers appointed from the Greek Fanariote families, which led to an increased presence of Greek language and culture in the administration of the Principalities. This time, the Russians experienced a defeat at Poltava, followed by an immediate Turkish incursion in southern Ukraine. Thus, odds are that the native Princes might have had the good sense not to entertain any hopes of Russian deliverance, would have kept their mouths shot and would be able to maintain their posts.)</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">By the summer of 1710, everything will be ready for the big showdown in the north. The Swedes have the initiative, and Carl XII wants to finish the war and strike Russia down once and for all. The Russians have made advances in the north, so that's the direction where they'll also have to be defeated. And since the invasion of the Russian heartland has already failed, the solution now would be to destroy the very symbol of Tsar's power and ambitions; the new capital which Peter has dared to raise on Swedish territory, St. Petersburg itself. So, sometime in May-June 1710, a few months or so after the fall of Viipuri and a month after the Russo-Turkish peace treaty, the Swedish main army in Livonia will begin its advance towards the new Russian capital.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">How many men can Sweden scrape up at this point? Even with the previously-described losses from military campaigns, diseases and famine, we could still assume some 25'000-30'000 men under Carl XII in Kurland, most of them fresh reinforcements raised by Stenbock in Sweden. To these, we can add ca. 10'000 men or so under general Carl Gustaf Nieroth in Finland (Nieroth replaced Lybecker as the Commander-in-Chief in Finland after the fall of Viipuri in our timeline, and was a master in impossible; the man managed to muster an army of 9'000 men from the virtually exhausted country in the spring of 1711 - of these, 2'600 men had already been raised in Ostrobothnia during the spring of 1710). The obvious Grand Strategy would be to mount a two-pronged attack against St. Petersburg; Nieroth will do his best to harass the Russian lines in Viipuri and the Karelian Isthmus, while the King himself will arrive from the south, smash through the Russian forces at Ivangorod and Narva and burn St. Petersburg to the ground. After this disgrace of a city has been erased from the Swedish soil, His Majesty will be free to dictate his peace terms to the Tsar. I know, not terribly realistic, but as said, by now Carl XII would believe that he can walk on waters.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">What does the Tsar do? Most likely he has managed to find time to raise more troops during the autumn of 1709 and the spring of 1710; in our timeline, a total of 280'000 men were drafted to the Russian army during the war, and at the end of Peter's reign, its size had reached 350'000 men (130'000 regulars in the field army and 80'000 in the garrison troops, 110'000 cossacks and irregulars, and 30'000 in the navy). We can assume that even after Sheremetiev's defeat, Peter is ready to move additional 40'000 men to the northwest, so together with Apraksin's forces this would add up to an army of ca. 55'000-60'000 men. As the summer of 1710 arrives, the Tsar sees the Swedish Lion moving against his own city, his beloved Petersburg. He's definitely going to lead its defence personally - which means that we're looking at the final death-match somewhere near Narva in June-July 1710, with both sovereigns personally in command of their armies once again.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">In my judgement, there's no doubt of the result of the battle. Peter has learned from all his previous defeats, is defending a sacred ground he has claimed as his own, has once again absolute superiority in numbers and materiél, whereas Carl XII is attempting yet another bold gamble with massive self-confidence and meagre resources. It's a decisive defeat for the Swedes, in every sense. The whole Swedish army is decimated, and more. The King himself is killed. He got away from Poltava in our timeline, and made it to refuge in Turkey, and he succeeded in his ride to Stralsund - but where could he go from here? To Sweden? The Russian navy controls the waterways around the Neva estuary. To Finland? The Russian army is in front of him. To Poland? A long, long way to a potentially hostile country, and the Russians would be pursuing him. Will he surrender? No chance in hell. As the battle ends, Carl XII lies among the fallen.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">What consequences the Swedish defeat and the death of the King would have on Sweden's internal politics, the foreign relations and the overall course of the Greath Northern War, will be a subject to analysis in the fifth part.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Part V: The Aftermath of the Defeat</u><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">The decisive Swedish military defeat at the gates of St. Petersburg on July 1710, combined with the death of Carl XII himself, will undoubtedly unleash another round of hostilities, similar to those which followed the defeat at Poltava in our timeline; simultaneously, it'll also raise the question of succession and see the estates' attempt to strengthen their position, restore some degree of constitutional rule and negotiate a quick peace. We'll pay attention to the renewed conflicts first, and the Swedish domestic situation second.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">August the Strong will re-emerge to contest the Polish-Lithuanian crown. As soon as the dust has settled in the north, the Confederation of Sandomierz will commence its onslaught, which should be more than enough to force Stanislaw Leszczynski to finally abdicate and flee from the country. The Confederation of Warsaw will be dissolved, and the Saxon troops will march to Poland in late July 1710. August's position is still going to be far from secure, and he'll be desperate for Russian military assistance in the future. As in our timeline, the Saxon elector will most definitely be in no position to enforce his claims over Sweden's Baltic possessions - a matter which will be dealt with more closely later on.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Denmark-Norway will rejoin the war and launch an assault against Holstein-Gottorp, which will be overrun in a week or two, given that there are no Swedish forces to speak of in Northern Gemany in this alternate timeline. As in our timeline, the Danes will also make a bid for their lost territories beyond Öresund and land at Helsingborg by November 1710, with the familiar slogan "aut nunc aut nuncquam" painted on their supply trains. Stenbock may be able to deal with the attack on Skåne, but since some of his original forces were dispatched to Riga back in 1709, he'll have to raise another army. On sea, the Swedes will have a run for their money. - The Danish naval threat shouldn't be exaggerated, though; at the time, the Danish-Norwegian battle fleet was numerically equal to Sweden's, with thirty-nine vessels and a total displacement of 61'000 tons. Furthermore, the Danes were surprisingly unwilling to risk a main battle in our timeline; both Køge Bugt and Rügen were very much draws and in the latter one, Danes had both the strategic advantage _and_ quantitative superiority, and still failed to convert it into victory. Likewise, Gyldenløve's success against the Swedish transports in 1712 was mostly a lucky strike. The undeniably major Swedish defeats in the hands of Tordenskjold at Dynekilen 1716 and elsewhere resulted probably just as much from Carl XII's strategically disastrous decisions as they did from the admitted brilliance of the Norwegian admiral - as a naval commander, the Swedish King was really below standards.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Incidentally, I'm going with the scenario where Sweden's German possessions - Hither Pomerania, Wismar, Bremen, Verden - are neutralized and outside the war (see the second part for details). Two alternatives: either the Convention of the Hague did take place, but Carl XII chose to recognize it - as explained, he could have easily chosen to accept such a settlement this time around, since he wasn't locked in Bender with the Pomeranian bridgehead as his only chance of forcing the way out - or, a similar kind of declaration will be made by Sweden, Britain and the Netherlands after Carl XII's death. Thus, we can, at the very least, remove Brandenburg-Prussia and Hannover from the list of Sweden's enemies. Even in our timeline, Prussia was reluctant to join the coalition, mostly because of King Friedrich's resentment towards August the Strong's conversion to the Catholic faith, and the eventual decision of Friedrich Wilhelm I to join forces with Peter the Great in 1714-1715 was very much due to unique political circumstances which don't exist at this earlier date and most likely never will. Furthermore, Prussia's freedom of action is still constrained by the ongoing hostilities against Louis XIV. Of Hannover, more information will be given further below.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">As soon as the news of the King's death reach Stockholm, the Riksråd will summon the estates, and the Riksdag will convene in, say, the early August of 1710; the main initiative to end the war will be made by Arvid Horn, the Finnish Chancery President and Sven Lejonmarck, the Chief Justice of the Åbo Court of Appeals. All the four estates will unequivocally support peace and voice their opinions in the question of succession, which, for one, will be concluded with considerably less fuss than in our timeline. According to the resolution of Norrköping, unmarried princesses are the first in line for the throne in the case of no direct heirs, and since Carl XII's sister Ulrika Eleonora is still single, she's the undisputed legitimate candidate. I've decided to skip the idea of his marriage to the duke of Kurland, but the Hessian Landgrave will still commence his courtship on this year. So, as the story goes, Ulrika Eleonora is crowned as the Queen of Sweden in the autumn of 1710. With the King already dead and the estates pressing for her candidature, Horn cannot plausibly torpedo her ascendancy, and due to Ulrika Eleonora's solid right to the throne, the Holstein faction will have no arguments whatsoever to back their own claim.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">(In fact, it could be argued that there's no Holstein faction at all in this alternate timeline. Carl XII never had the chance to acquaint himself with Georg Heinrich von Görtz, whom he met after his ride to Stralsund in 1714 in our timeline. Quite obviously, Görtz has never entered Swedish service in this timeline and never will... the knock-on effects of which will be immensive. With the absence of Görtz's near-despotic regime in the final war years, the relations between the estates and the ruler won't be as strained as in our timeline, and odds are that the demise of the Royal Power won't be as radical this time around. In fact, I'm on sadistic mood today, so I'll have the Danes to execute Görtz as Holstein-Gottorp falls. There!)</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">When it comes to peace negotiations, there's one factor working on Sweden's favour: the relations between Sweden and Britain are definitely better than in our timeline. As we've noted, there hasn't been any Swedish ban on Livonian trade, no Swedish privateer ordinances or attacks on British and Dutch merchantmen on the Baltic, and since Carl XII is out of the business and Görtz is butterflied out, there's no Swedish backing of the Jacobites. Supporting Sweden and maintaining the Balance of the North will still be in Britain's best interests, and the possible Russian dominion over the Baltic will still be regarded with apprehension in Britain. Also, the accession of King George I - who, as the Elector of Hannover, has his own designs for Sweden's North German possessions in Bremen and Verden - is still very much in the future, and even if the bishoprics should become an issue, it's not impossible that the Riksråd would be ready to bargain them away in exchange for diplomatic and military assistance in this alternate timeline. The new Tory government will no doubt offer to mediate with the same sincerity it did in our timeline, and whereas Carl XII refused the mediation, the Riksråd and Ulrika Eleonora will most certainly accept it.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Whether the Tsar would be ready to agree to a British mediation for a negotiated peace at the time when he has won a decisive victory and could easily reach his claims without settlement is another matter. However, Britain can always use one option to press the issue, the same which was used a multitude of times during 1709-1721: a naval expedition to the Baltic. The War of Spanish Succession is already reaching its closing stage - from the contemporary perspective, of course, anything can still happen - and some of the distractions which hampered the British assistance for Sweden in 1719-1721, such as the South Sea Bubble Crisis, haven't materialized at this earlier date, so chances are that Britain will be able to throw a bit more concrete aid for Sweden this time around. The Swedish-British cooperation will be advocated by the Queen, Horn, and the British ambassadour in Stockholm, who, at this stage, is John Carteret, and the possible British intervention in the north will be one central aspect of the following, last parts.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Part VI: Warding off the Blows</u><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">While the Queen and the Råd are making a scramble for peace, and the Swedish mainland is coping with a Danish-Norwegian incursion, the eastern parts of the realm will have to defend themselves alone, without any help from the mother country. After the destruction and rout of the main Swedish army on the gates of St. Petersburg, the Tsar will move to an immediate offensive against the Baltic provinces on August 1710. In a month or so, the Russians will have once again besieged Reval, Pernau and Riga, and the starved, half-dead shreds of Sweden's Baltic army - including the last Swedish troops from Poland, which have by now retreated in front of August II's Saxon forces - will be locked in the plague-infested Estonian and Livonian garrisons, liable to fall like skittles by the spring of 1711 at the latest. Despite of their upper hand, the invading Russians will also suffer from the winter, diseases and supply problems, which should prolong the sieges somewhat.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Aside the Baltic provinces, Finland will also face another Russian attack. The repeated crop failures of 1704-1709 have left the country in a rather sorry state, and in addition, Carl XII has been drafting Finns like there's no tomorrow - the pre-war Finnish population was around 350'000, of whom 50'000 men were drafted during the war; a few thousand survived. However, as noted, the Finnish army still amounts to ca. 10'000 men at this point - 6'500 infantry, 3'500 cavalry - and is under the command of general Carl Gustaf Nieroth, who replaced Georg Henrik Lybecker after the fall of Viipuri. Nieroth kept the post until his death in 1712, after which Lybecker returned. Lybecker's incompetence quite simply cannot be exaggerated. For example, Apraksin's landing on Tervik in May 1713 owed its success almost entirely to Lybecker's passiveness; the arrival of the Russian reinforcements was delayed by a month, but the Swedish general made no attempt whatsoever to either attack the Russian bridgehead or to prevent the Russian reinforcements from linking with Apraksin's main army. After abandoning the Finnish coastline without any resistance, Lybecker withdrew to inland, effectively severing his own supply lines. The morale of the Finnish troops was totally wrecked, and in August 1713, Stockholm finally had the good sense to remove Lybecker, but by then, it was already too late and the damage had been done. - However, in this alternate timeline, Nieroth is still in command, and he's highly competent, one of the best Swedish generals of the day, comparable to Stenbock himself.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">We've already established that Nieroth's army participated in the offensive against St. Petersburg by attempting to divert the Russian forces to the Karelian Isthmus and harassing their communication and supply lines; even in our timeline, the Finnish detachments under colonels Johan Stiernschantz and Carl Gustaf Armfelt were able to control the Viipuri-St. Petersburg highway for most of the summer. The Russians can, however, maintain their garrison in Viipuri by sea, and come August 1710, Apraksin will concentrate an army of ca. 15'000 men, of whom 5'000 cavalry, in the northwest. The Russian infantry will man their galleys and mount an amphibious landing on the west bank of the Kymi river, whereas the cavalry will advance overland, destroying everything as it moves on. Nieroth will be sharp enough to anticipate the landing and prepare accordingly. As in our timeline, the Russians will most likely choose to disembark their forces at Helsingfors (Helsinki), which will be defended by Armfelt's detachment. The first landing attempts can be repulsed, but eventually Armfelt will have to withdraw and torch the town to the ground; not a great loss, the place was already ridden by the plague, which killed 30% of the inhabitants during the autumn of 1710.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Although the sight of Helsinki in flames is beautiful, Apraksin won't spend too much time admiring it, but instead head his fleet towards Borgå (Porvoo). Meanwhile, Nieroth will seize the opportunity to take action against the Russian cavalry (commanded by either Robert Bruce or Mikhail Golitsyn... I'll choose the first candidate). The initial Russian advance will be harassed by guerillas - again, something that Nieroth had realized but Lybecker hadn't - until the Finnish main army will engage the enemy at Abborfors (Ahvenkoski) and defeat it on the riverbanks; with 8'000 men against 5'000, it shouldn't be much of a problem. The victory will be a welcome boost for the overall morale, and show to the Finnish troops that despite the grievous losses of the past ten years, the country can still be defended. By the time when Apraksin's army disembarks at Borgå or Pernå (Pernaja), Nieroth can attack it from all sides. Apraksin will no doubt be quick to realize that his reinforcements won't be arriving and be smart enough to not risk a battle, but instead re-embark his troops and withdraw the fleet back to the archipelago. Vice-admiral Nils Ehrenskjöld's small Swedish-Finnish galley flotilla has presumably also made its entrance by this point, but will hardly dare to pursue Apraksin's superior fleet. Nevertheless, the end result is that the Russian invasion has been fought back... for the time being.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">As September arrives, Nieroth's forces have ground the Russian offensive against Finland to a halt, the morale and discipline of the Finnish troops will be high, and the desertions and resentment which plagued the army under Lybecker won't be an issue. The financial support of the army will still be hung by a thread, but the harvest of 1710 will provide adequate rations for the soldiers, the arms shipments from Sweden will reach Finland, the levée-en-masse will add 2'500-3'000 men to the ranks later on the same year, and the diseases will ease off as the winter finally arrives. The deteriorated condition of the roads after the autumn rains, together with an organized guerilla action, will pose an obstacle to a renewed Russian overland advance, which can still be met with one-on-one odds on the battlefield. In the west, Nieroth will keep a watchful eye for another landing attempt, especially since Apraksin definitely won't discontinue ravaging the coast whenever he gets the chance. The Swedish archipelago flotilla and admiral Gustaf Wattrang's battle fleet squadron should still be able to block the Gulf at least up to Helsinki, denying the Russian access to Åbo and Åland archipelago, and as the Gulf of Finland eventually freezes, the naval operations will effectively end for the year. The Russians can raid the territory all the way to the Kymi river, but otherwise they'll have to postpone the invasion of Finland either to the late winter or the spring 1711. By then, the Tsar himself will arrive to take command of his armies.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">The Russo-Swedish negotiations will begin in January 1711, with count Andrei Ostermann as the Russian representative, Arvid Horn as the Swedish representative, and the British ambassadour John Carteret as the mediator; all three will have clear instructions and opening positions. The Tsar will demand Ingria, Karelia, Viipuri included, Estonia and Livonia - the latter one in direct violation of his treaty with August II, but as told, at this point, Peter won't much care of the feelings of his Saxon ally anymore. Sweden will be ready to cede St. Petersburg, Ingria, Kexholm and perhaps compromise the territories ceded already once in the Treaty of Vallisaari (signed 1657, the settlement granted Kokenhausen, Marienburg, Neuhausen, Dorpat and Vasknarva to Tsar Aleksei for three years). However, Ulrika Eleonora won't be ready to swallow the loss of the western half of the Karelian Isthmus and the Baltic provinces quite yet; the Baltic garrisons are still holding out, the military success in Finland has strengthened the Crown's determination to press for more honourable terms, and there's a fair chance that Britain will assist Sweden in retaining Estonia and Livonia. The Russians will take note of the last factor, and aside of enforcing his terms by military means, the Tsar will also begin a diplomatic offensive; Boris Kurakin, the Russian ambassadour in London, will be given the task of persuading Britain to accept Peter's conquest of the Eastern Baltic littoral. Threatening to cut off the Archangelsk trade is always one option to pursue - at the time, Britain imported ca. 75% of its hemp from Archangelsk, and the remaining 25% from Riga; one of the reasons why Britain objected to the Russian supremacy on the Baltic was precisely because it would have given the Tsar a total control over the British naval stores.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">The events in the west will no doubt facilitate the Russian decision to resume the advance against Finland as fast as possible. By March 1711, Stenbock will have defeated the Danes in Skåne, forcing the blistered remains of King Frederik's army to withdraw back to Sjælland. At best, Reventlow may have been able to hold on to Malmö and perhaps Landskrona, but otherwise the Danish offensive to reconquer the lost territories, conducted under the slogan "now or never", has ended with a definite "never". At the same time, Louis XIV will inform Harley and the Tory government of his preliminary peace terms, negotiations between Britain and France will begin, the death of Emperor Josef will bring the War of Spanish Succession to its final closing stage, and the maritime powers will once again have the freedom of action to concentrate on terminating the bothersome northern conflict.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">On May 1711, a fleet of sixteen British warships, commanded by admiral Sir John Norris, will sail to the Baltic. Stanhope's orders to Norris and Carteret will be unambiguos; preserve the Northern Balance, defend Sweden's interests in the peace negotiations... and if necessary, destroy the Tsar's Baltic Fleet while at it.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Part VII: The Peace Offensive</u><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">The sudden appearance of sixteen British ships-of-the-line in Öresund on May 1711 has a sobering effect on King Frederik IV. Although Norris makes it clear to Stenbock that the Royal Navy won't assist the Swedes in a landing on Sjælland, the mere presence of the fleet is enough to raise the bad memories of the lightning strike Denmark suffered eleven years ago. Despite a sense of betrayal - Danish soldiers have fought in Marlborough's forces, after all - the sovereign of Denmark-Norway reluctantly decides that the most sensible course of action would be to meet the British demands and sign a peace with Sweden. A six-months' armistice is declared in June, and the negotiations begin. The Danish-Norwegian territorial demands in Skåne and Bohus are bluntly brushed aside by Carteret, and the one and the only gain that Løvenørne manages to secure for the conglomerate kingdom is the ducal part of Slesvig; neither the Queen nor Horn have any interest in the vexing alliance with Holstein-Gottorp, and are quite ready to sacrifice the Duke's possessions. The Danish acquisition is officially recognized by Sweden and guaranteed by Britain. Pressured by the British demands for an equal competition in the Baltic trade, Sweden also has to renounce her exemption from Öresund dues. The final peace treaty is signed in Fredriksborg in the first week of December, by which time the situation in the north will have been long resolved.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Regardless of the brief break after Apraksin's raid against Helsinki, Finland's condition will continue to deteriorate as the winter of 1710-1711 passes. Generalkrigskommissariat will turn down Nieroth's requests for reinforcements and statskontoret will refuse to give him any money; all remaining men and cash in the mother country are earmarked for the defence against Denmark and the planned expedition to recover the Baltic provinces. The sad truth is that the dirt-poor eastern borderland has to base its defence on its own, exhausted human and economic resources. Except for a few thousand militiamen, the army has virtually no reserves and has to rely its financial maintenance on a variety of forced contributions, auxiliary taxes and a few Dutch credits delivered by merchant Johan Henrik Frisius. The situation is untenable; past the spring of 1711, Finland will be unable to maintain its army, and the defences will collapse even without a Russian attack. The only real hope is a quick peace - but the twisted irony of the history is that the succesful resistance of the Finnish army on the autumn of 1710 has backfired on the country, encouraging the Swedish Crown to turn down the Tsar's terms and reconsider continuing the war against Russia.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Thus, Finland is blessed with the final blaze of glory and Nieroth is given the chance to go down as a true warrior, as the new Russian offensive comes in the late winter of 1711, immediately after the five-months long siege of Reval has ended with governor Hans Henrik von Liewen's surrender - and this time the attack against Finland will be far, far harder than the previous one. Stenbock's victory in Skåne, the temporary deadlock in the Russo-Swedish peace negotiations and rumours of British naval intervention have convinced Peter that the war has to be taken on the Swedish mainland as soon as possible, which means that Finland has to be conquered before the sea opens in the spring. On March, the Tsar leads an army of 18'000 men from Reval to Helsinki, over the frozen Gulf of Finland, and begins to construct a military base in the town. Simultaneously, Apraksin moves once again out from Viipuri with an equal force; the winter will make the supplying of both armies a difficult task, but it can be done. As usual, the Russians will make a good use of their ski troops; they had lots of those, recruited from the Fenno-Ugrian and other indigenous peoples of the Empire.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">In a sudden, Nieroth is faced with an enemy almost four times of his size, threatening him from two directions, and Stockholm still won't send any help, but nonetheless orders him to stand his ground. Withdrawing inland is out of the question, the past experience under Lybecker has shown that retreat has a devastating effect on the morale of the Finnish troops, and the store-houses which the army has in the south can't be abandoned, either. Nieroth has to fight, so win or lose, he leads his men against the Tsar. The fate of Finland is decided in the ensuing battle of Mäntsälä, fought amid the snow-drifts in the bitter cold of the Northern winter. Nieroth's forces put up a fierce struggle, several Russian guns are captured in near-suicidal charges, but in the end, the outcome is what it is; the battle turns to a massacre as the Finnish infantry steadfastly refuses to surrender and fights to the death. By the end of the day, 5'000 Finns and Nieroth himself lie dead on the battlefield. Kaleva's son is struck down, permanently. In the frenzy of the victory, the Tsar orders Golitsyn to loot and raid the nearby parishes. Before the Easter, the Russians march to Åbo (Turku) and secure their control over southern Finland. Inter arma silent leges; as the Finnish army collapses, so does the social order. Provincial governors, judges, priests and other crown officials cross the Gulf of Bothnia to Sweden as fast as they can, the farmers living in the battle zones scramble for their hideouts in the forests, and the surviving soldiers begin a bitter guerilla campaign against the invaders; the "Great Wrath" begins.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">As the sea opens in May, the Russian galley fleet ships more and more men and material over the Gulf of Finland, building the Finnish southern coastline into a springboard for the planned invasion of the Swedish mainland. However, the preparations become a subject to reconsideration, as Wattrang's Swedish battle fleet squadron returns to patrol the Gulf on the early June. The deep waters off Helsinki and Porkkala favour the large Swedish vessels, and despite his numerical superiority, Apraksin dares not to take his gunboats within the firing zone of the Swedish battleships. The fate deals its final, cruel card on early July, as Norris' British fleet finally arrives to the Åbo archipelago. Facing the threat of a combined Anglo-Swedish fleet, Peter decides to abandon his plans of naval action against Stockholm, and instead, gives an order to raze the conquered Finnish territories, aiming to deprive Sweden of a base for a possible future offensive against Viipuri or St. Petersburg. Starting from the late summer of 1711, the eastern half of the Swedish realm shares the fate of the other trans-Baltic lands, and experiences a total, systematic destruction. Turku is burned to the ground, half of the farmsteads in the region between Aura and Kymi scorched, fields destroyed, cattle killed, tens of thousands men, women and children taken to slavery in Russia, and thousands of people murdered by the Tsar's soldiers.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">As the autumn of 1711 passes by, peace with Russia begins to seem like a good idea once again. Finland is bleeding to death, the number of refugees in Stockholm has hit 10'000, the Bank of the Estates has suspended all loans, the final loss of the Baltic provinces and Finland has deprived the Crown of nearly a half of the next year's revenues, and the upcoming winter will raise the threat of the Russian attack against the Swedish mainland over the frozen Sea of Åland. Continuing the war with British support doesn't appear a viable option; despite the naval assistance, Sweden would have to organize the reconquest of the Eastern Baltic with her own land army, and indelningsverket is already creaking under the strain - Görtz is out of the picture, and I doubt that the Råd would risk issuing a forced draft. The British promise of an annual subsidy of 300'000 riksdalers is a cold comfort when the Swedish wartime budget is beginning to swallow thirty millions from a state revenue barely over three and a half millions. Furthermore, the British determination to preserve the Balance of the North has its limits; after ending one costly war against France, the Townshend-Stanhope ministry is reluctant to start another one against the Russian Empire, especially since the Tsar is quick to find out the right strings from which to pull in order to persuade Britain to agree to the new status quo. The cold truth is that Sweden is in no position to recover her losses, which the Queen and the Råd will finally begin to realize. Thus, the negotiations restart in earnest in November 1711, with all sides united in their desire for peace this time around.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">The final peace treaty between the Kingdom of Sweden and the Russian Empire is signed in a conference held on Åland islands in January 1712. The Tsar gets all his demands; Narva, Ingria and Kexholm as "ancient Russian land", Viipuri and the western half of the Karelian Isthmus as a buffer zone for the conquests, and the two Baltic provinces of Estonia and Livonia in exchange for a compensation of two million riksdalers paid by Russia to Sweden. The rest of Finland is returned to Sweden. After twelve years of continuous fighting, the Great Northern War is finally over, and Sweden has lost its great power status.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Part VIII: Swedish victory at Poltava, the Epilogue</u><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">The eventual peace settlement between Sweden and Russia was essentially similar to the one signed in our timeline; some people may find this resolution boring and blame me for a lack of imagination. Maybe there's no need for me to make any justifications, but it's perhaps still best to mention that I was never aiming for any particular outcome, and if the end was close to the history we remember, well, the more the things change, the more they stay the same. I started to proceed from the presumed Swedish victory in the battle of Poltava, and at every possible turning-point in the subsequent course of events I chose the alternative which seemed the most probable option. Thus, the Russo-Turkish War of 1709-1710, the Swedish reconquest of the Baltic provinces in 1710, Carl XII's offensive against St. Petersburg and his death on the same year, the neutralization of Sweden's German territories, Ulrika Eleonora's coronation, the Danish failure to reconquer Skåne, the anticlimactic British intervention and the year's deadlock in the Russo-Swedish peace negotiations with its tragic consequences. The death of Carl XII on the battlefield is probably the one element which could be questioned the most, even though I explained why I thought it'd be the most likely outcome in the script. However, "What If Carl XII had survived the battle of St. Petersburg in 1710?" is certainly also a perfectly acceptable scenario.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">So, what's different in this alternate timeline? First and foremost, Sweden is still, at least nominally, an absolute monarchy. Since Ulrika Eleonora's claim as an unmarried princess was solid, the estates were in no position to extract concessions from her by threatening to approve the Holstein succession. The death of the King had also made his sister's coronation rather urgent, and the rivalries between the Råd and the estates still persisted. There is no Holstein faction, and the peace treaty has granted the Russian Empire no excuse to meddle in Sweden's internal affairs as a guarantor of the constitutional order. Nonetheless, the defeat has still discredited the absolutist rule and both the Råd and the estates have re-emerged as competing centres of power, with the will and the intention to exercise their authority in the future. The new Queen doesn't have the same talent in playing her opponents against each others as her brother and father had, although she could solve this by delegating most of the power in Horn's hands. As the next monarch rises on the throne, however, the estates will definitely insist on including the ratification of a new Constitution in the Royal Oath. Whether this happens after Ulrika Eleonora's marriage in 1720 or after her death in 1741, is open for questions; as a nominally absolute monarch, she might decide not to concede the crown to Fredrik this time around. In both cases, the transitional "monarchia mixta"-period marking the gradual demise of the absolute rule might cause the following "Age of Liberty" to be somewhat less plagued by party strife than in our timeline, even though the question of Ulrika Eleonora's succession will still constitute a potential stumbling-block. It's speculating, but if these dangers can be avoided and the constitutional ideas will be allowed more time to grow ripe, Sweden might be able to produce a parliamentary form of government which could survive unchanged from the 18th century up to the present day.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">In some ways, Finland has suffered more than in our timeline, and in some ways, less. The events in the last months of the war made the Russians resort to mass destruction in a far larger scale than in our history, but on the other hand, the total occupation period has been considerably shorter in this alternate timeline (1711-1712 instead of 1713-1721), so the country will be able to recover from the disasters of the invasion fairly quickly. Even still, the wartime experiences have undermined the Finnish confidence in the mother country, marking the first step in the road towards the separation of the two parts of the realm. However, this doesn't need to happen; if the Crown manages to avoid engaging in revanchist wars against Russia during the 18th century, it can also regain and even strengthen the trust of its Finnish subjects. The unitary state will last as long as the governments are responsible and the international situation is favourable.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Strangely enough, Sweden has retained exactly one piece of territory which was lost in the peace settlement of the Great Northern War in our timeline; the city of Stettin, thanks to the decision to agree to the neutralization of the North German possessions and the Prussian non-involvement in the war. Regretfully, this will only serve to increase the Prussian ambitions towards the port and the Pomeranian coastline later on, bind Sweden closer to the Continental politics and increase the Swedish dependence on France as the century passes. Remaining outside any Central European War is going to be difficult, and ending up entangled in at least one of them will be inevitable.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">As in our timeline, Denmark has failed to gain her lost territories, and will have to settle for the status of a neutral, minor power as the 18th century passes. Just as the Swedes and the Finns, the Danes will also have to learn how to deal with the Russian menace; the imminent connection between Romanovs and the house of Holstein-Gottorp, manifested in the marriage of Grand-Duchess Anna Petrovna, the daughter of the Tsar, with Duke Karl Friedrich, will certainly materialize also in this alternate timeline. The dynastic alliance between the Russian Empire and the arch-enemy of the Danish Royal House may yet threaten the very existence of the Danish-Norwegian conglomerate kingdom; even in our history, the eventual Danish salvation in 1762 depended almost entirely on chance. As for Norwegians, well, needless to say, this alternate timeline has left them without one important part of their national history; Carl XII's legendary siege of Frederiksten and his mythical death on the walls of the fortress did not take place in this version of the Great Northern War.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Whereas Sweden and Denmark may yet be able to survive the subsequent turbulence in the 18th century, the fate of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth has definitely been sealed by the Great Northern War. The restoration of August II and his Saxon Guard at the volition of the Confederates of Sandomierz will continue to divide the Rzeczpospolita against itself, and the traditional Polish animosity against the German King will resurface fairly quickly. The resistance of the Szlachta will be reorganized in the Confederation of Tarnogród in 1715-1717, and the King-Elector will require Russian assistance in suppressing the rokosz. The subsequent events will materialize largely in accordance to the history we remember; the Silent Sejm will assemble under the watchful eye of Menshikov's soldiers, and effectively transform Poland-Lithuania into a Russian protectorate. Stanislaw Leszczynski's return will be thwarted by the future partitioning powers; most likely Sweden will manage to avoid involvement in the War of Polish Succession also in this alternate timeline, especially if Horn is in charge of the foreign policy.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Curiously, although the victory at Poltava hasn't prevented the imminent downfall of Sweden's great power status, it has produced a positive outcome for the Danubian principalities. As told, in our timeline, Peter the Great's triumph over Carl XII in Ukraine motivated the princes to seek Russian help in overthrowing the Ottoman suzerainty, and this cooperation with the enemy led to the later removal of the native leadership by the Porte and the beginning of the so-called Fanariot régime in the principalities. In this alternate timeline, the Russian defeat at Poltava, followed by the short, victorious Turkish campaign against Azov, caused the hospodars to abandon all hopes of Russian rescue, and thus, both Dimitriu Cantemir in Moldavia and Constantin Brîncoveanu in Valakia will hold on to their posts somewhat longer - the latter may yet end up decapitated, Brîncoveanu had already earned a reputation as an unreliable double-dealer well before 1709, and the Sultan had made provisions for his elimination in favour of Cantemir. But, for the time being, at least, the Romanian principalities will still maintain their political, economic and cultural ties with Central Europe, continue the positive developments begun in the 17th century and avoid the corruption, excessive taxation, degradation of the peasantry and overall anarchy which burdened them under the Fanariot rule.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">The events in the southwestern Europe and elsewhere will follow their due course, with the potential for variation increasing every year. As we've seen, the Swedish agitation for a renewed Turkish attack against Russia discontinued in 1710, leaving the victor of Azov, Grand Vizier Baltaci Mehmet, and his Fanariot supporters free to pursue their another favourite goal, which is to regain the losses of Karlowitz. Thus, on November 1711, the Ottoman Empire commences hostilities against Venice, and recaptures Morea with a quick land-sea expedition in the summer of 1712. The Spanish interests will dictate a continued Habsburg noninterference against the Porte until the final conclusion of peace between Vienna and Paris, but chances are that the settlement would be accelerated this time around, especially since the Ottoman action in the southeast would coincide with Villars' success over Prinz Eugen at Denain. The peace between Louis XIV and the Emperor might be signed already in Utrecht, after which Austria would turn to deal with the Turks. In this situation, the Romanian princes might opt for Austrian support, which would, in many respects, be a more viable alternative than the Russian assistance. I wouldn't entirely rule out the possibility of the principalities falling within the Austrian sphere of influence in this timeline's equivalent of Passarowitz, particularly since the above-described Polish situation could distract the Tsar from intervening in the Balkans at the moment. However, Peter still has many good years left, so he might still be able to exploit the situation and eventually restore the Russian access also to the Black Sea already in his lifetime.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Appendix: The Central Asian aspect</u><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">One of the little-known curiosities of the historic Battle of Poltava was the fate of one Swedish officer, Johan Gustaf Renat, who was among the soldiers captured by the victorious Russians and whose endeavours turned out to have an unexpected impact on the history of the 18th century Central Asia. After his capture, Renat was transported beyond the Urals with several other Swedish prisoners of war as part of colonel Buchholz's expedition in 1716. During the expedition, Renat was captured for a second time near the fortress of Iamyshevsk south of Omsk, this time by an Oirat Mongol raiding party. Renat's capture by the Mongols proved to be a fortunate incident for him, and in a very short time, the Swedish veteran had become the confident of Tsewang Araptan (1643-1727), the Khan of Dzungaria himself. Renat was also accompanied by a Swedish woman, Brigitta Christina Scherzenfeldt, who, after losing her husband in Poltava, had married captain Michael Ziems, a Mecklenburger officer in Russian service, and followed him to the east; while Renat became the Khan's personal advisor, Brigitta became the tutor of the Khan's favourite daughter.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">During his seventeen-years' custody, Renat followed the Mongols on their campaigns as a military advisor and taught them to use and manufacture black-powder weapons - at first, muskets, and after a couple of succesful raids against local Russian metalworks, even artillery pieces, fourty-six of which the Mongols constructed themselves. Renat also founded some indigenous metalworks, a textile manufactury and a printing press, which all made Dzungaria exceptional among the other steppe empires. Renat's assistance was invaluable to his master and allowed Tsewang Araptan to build a steppe empire of immense size, a power which was able to challenge even the Qing China. Renat and Brigitta were both very richly rewarded and eventually freed in 1733; they managed to return back to Sweden with another Russian mission, and upon his return, Renat presented the University of Uppsala with two detailed maps of Dzungaria, which were very unique in Europe back then. The artillery corps which he had established for his Dzungar hosts played a decisive role in obliterating the Kazakhs in the wars of the 1740s and paved the way for the Oirat conquest of Transoxanian lands during the same decade.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Renat's personal importance cannot be doubted. It's noteworthy that in our timeline, no one of the several Russian captives which the Dzungarian Mongols had taken over the years ever managed to rise to a similar position as Renat, or show a comparable expertise in military matters; the capturing of a Swedish officer who also happened to have a background in engineering was a stroke of incredible luck for Tsewang Araptan. In a situation where Renat would not be captured in 1716 - which, needless to say, is one likely consequence of a timeline which has witnessed the victory of Carl XII at Poltava - it seems rather unlikely that anyone else could play the same role as he did. Thus, in this alternate timeline, the Dzungars would inevitably lose one important asset which allowed them to carve out a large dominion in Central Asia in the history we remember. However, it also has to be noted that even in our timeline, the Dzungarian empire didn't last long enough to decisively influence the history of Central Asia. After a violent succession crisis and a civil strife after the death of Khan Galdan Tsereng in 1750, the realm had to accept the intervention and the hegemony of the Qing China. The subsequent attempt by Khan Amursama to start an uprising against the foreign rule led to the final destruction of the kingdom by a Qing invasion, and approximately two-thirds of its one-million population were wiped out in a historic genocide ordered by Emperor Qianlong in 1756-1759. The conquered Dzungar territories were attached to the Qing Empire as a part of the newly-established westernmost province, Xinjiang, and remain as a part of China still today.</span><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal;">Whether Tsewang Araptan would still go ahead with his invasion of Tibet in 1717, how the Qing China might react to it, and what would be the long-term effects on the Central Asian history is still open for questions. It doesn't seem unlikely that the absence of Renat's endeavours which triggered the rise of Dzungaria to a regional power might actually result in a better outcome for the local population. In a situation where Dzungaria does not appear as a large, threatening steppe empire which it was in our timeline, it's possible that the Qing China would not deal with it in quite as drastic fashion as was the case in the history we remember; thus, instead of becoming a Central Asian powerhouse and going out in a blaze of glory, Dzungaria might continue its existence as a simple, ordinary steppe kingdom engaging in occasional raids against its neighbours but otherwise provoking no substantial aggression from the surrounding great powers. One knock-on effect might also be that Dzungaria ends up within the Russian sphere of influence instead of becoming part of the Chinese domain. However, a further study must still be done in order to clear up all the consequences which the alternate Poltava and the different fate of J. G. Renat might have on the history of Central Asia in general and Dzungaria in particular.</span><span style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br /></span></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-18057282824164088382016-11-22T08:20:00.000-08:002016-11-22T08:20:20.598-08:00How Germany Could Have Won World War I <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/884/germany-won-world-war" target="_blank">How Germany Could Have Won World War I</a></div>
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<a href="http://nationalinterest.org/files/styles/main_image_on_posts/public/main_images/worldwarone_cc_050714.jpg?itok=U7UGQDCR" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://nationalinterest.org/files/styles/main_image_on_posts/public/main_images/worldwarone_cc_050714.jpg?itok=U7UGQDCR" height="229" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;">If Berlin had made some different choices we would be living in a very different world. </i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">What would have happened if Imperial Germany had not invaded Belgium in 1914, if the Kaiser had built more U-boats, or if America had not entered the war? If it is plausible to imagine a historical timeline where Hitler won, then why not one in which the Tsars still rule Russia, the British Empire was never exhausted by war, and the Ottoman Empire still controls the Middle East?</span></div>
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<br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">Perhaps it is the grim aura of fatalism that discourages speculative history of the Great War. The sense that no matter what, the conflict would have been one long, miserable slaughter, a four-year live performance of "Paths of Glory." But the combatants were not drones or sheep, and the conflict was more than mud, blood and barbed wire. There was mobile warfare in Russia and Poland, amphibious invasions in Turkey and guerrilla campaigns in East Africa.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">It is also easy to assume that German defeat was inevitable at the hands of an Allied coalition richer in manpower, weapons and money. Yet Germany nearly captured Paris in 1914, crushed Serbia and Romania, bled the French Army until it mutinied, drove Russia out of the war, and then came oh-so-close to victory on the Western Front in 1918. Don't underestimate the power of Imperial Germany. Until the armistice was signed in a French railway carriage on November 11, 1918, Germany's enemies didn't.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">So with this year marking the 100th anniversary of the War to End All Wars (but didn't), let's look at what might have been. Here are a few possibilities in which history could have been very different for Germany:</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;">Avoiding a two-front war</u></div>
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<u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /></u><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">If twentieth-century Germany had a tombstone, it would say "This is What Happens to Those Who Fight on Two Fronts". Much as kung-fu movies make fighting multiple opponents look easy, it's generally better to defeat your enemies one at a time.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">That was the idea behind Germany's Schlieffen plan, which called for concentrating on France in the opening days of the conflict while keeping weaker forces in the East. The key was to defeat France quickly while vast and underdeveloped Russia still mobilized, and then transfer forces by rail to settle accounts with the Tsar.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">However, Russia did attack into East Prussia in August 1914, only to be surrounded and annihilated at the Battle of Tannenberg. They lost 170,000 men to just 12,000 Germans in one of history's most famous battles of encirclement. Yet the Russian advance also frightened German Army Chief of Staff Helmuth von Moltke into transferring three corps from France to East Prussia. They arrived too late for Tannenberg, while depriving the Western offensive of vital troops at Germany's best time to overcome France and possibly end the war.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">From then on, Germany had to spread its forces between West and East, while supporting its Austro-Hungarian and Turkish allies. Just what Germany could have accomplished—had it been able to concentrate on just one front—became painfully clear in 1918. After forcing the new Soviet government to sue for peace, the Germans quickly transferred 500,000 troops to France. They also unleashed innovative new stosstruppen (stormtrooper) infiltration tactics—an early form of blitzkrieg without the tanks—that enabled them to break the trench-warfare deadlock.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">Kaiserschlacht ("Kaiser's Battle") offensives shattered several British armies and compelled British commander Douglas Haig to warn his troops that their backs were "to the wall." After four years of unrelenting combat and economic blockade, Germany still had the strength to achieve more in weeks than four years of bloody Allied offensives at the Somme, Passchendaele and Chemin des Dames.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">Ideally, Germany could have found diplomatic means to have fought against Russia alone without war with France, or vice-versa. Failing that, and given the shorter distances in the West, it would have been better to have temporarily conceded some East Prussian territory while concentrating on capturing Paris. It might not have been easy, but it would have been far easier than fighting on two fronts.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;">Not Invading Belgium</u></div>
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<u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /></u><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">Imperial Germany was a nation too clever for its own good. Case in point: invading neutral Belgium. From a military perspective, advancing to Belgium was a brilliant move to sidestep north of the French armies and fortifications on the Franco-German border, and then turn south to capture Paris and encircle the French armies from the rear. It reflected the traditional German preference for mobile warfare (Bewegungskrieg), which favored superior German tactics, rather than a static war of attrition (Stellungskrieg) that could only favor their numerically superior opponents.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">A strategic masterstroke? Indeed. It also may have lost Germany the war.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">Britain had guaranteed Belgium's neutrality. That "scrap of paper" had been derided by German leaders, but the parchment would cost Berlin dearly by giving London a casus belli to declare war. Now Germany faced not just France and Russia, but also the immense military and economic resources of the British Empire.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">France had a population of 39 million in 1914, versus Germany's 67 million. Can anyone imagine France alone defeating Germany? It failed in 1870, and it would have failed in 1914. Russia could boast of a population of 167 million people, yet shortages of weapons, supplies and infrastructure rendered it a giant with feet of clay. Despite keeping much of their army in France, the Germans were still able to drive Russia out of the war by 1918. Without British support, even a Franco-Russian combination would probably have succumbed to German might.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">The entry of Britain and her empire added nearly 9 million troops to the Allies. More importantly, it added the Royal Navy. The French battle fleet was half the size of Germany's and was deployed in the Mediterranean against Germany's Austro-Hungarian and Turkish partners. The Russian navy was negligible. It was Britain's Grand Fleet that made possible the blockade that starved Germany of raw materials and especially food, which starved 400,000 Germans to death and sapped civilian and military morale by late 1918.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">It is quite possible that Britain might have declared war on Germany anyway, just to prevent a single power from dominating the Continent, and to preclude hostile naval bases so close to England. But if Germany had managed to stave off British entry for months or years, it would have enjoyed more time and more resources to defeat its enemies.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;">Don't Build a Big Surface Fleet</u></div>
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<u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /></u><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">Imperial Germany's High Seas Fleet was the second most powerful navy in the world in 1914, behind Britain's Grand Fleet. It mustered fifteen dreadnoughts to Britain's twenty-two, and five battlecruisers to Britain's nine. German surface ships enjoyed better armor plating, guns, propellant and fire control systems than their British rivals.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">And what did this powerful surface fleet accomplish? Not much. Its capital ships rarely left port, which also left the British blockade in place. If the German fleet could not break the British blockade, impose its own blockade of Britain, or enable a German amphibious invasion of England, then what was it good for?</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">It did have value as a classic "fleet in being", staying in port while waiting for an opportunity to pounce, and threatening the enemy just by its existence (Churchill described Royal Navy commander John Jellicoe as the only man on either side who could lose the war in an afternoon). But its main contribution was provoking the British into regarding Germany as a threat even before the war began. Challenging the Royal Navy's maritime supremacy through a naval arms race was the one move guaranteed to arouse the British lion.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">Despite ambitions of becoming a global colonial empire, Germany was still a Continental power in 1914. If it won the war, it would be through the immense power of its army, not its navy. What could Germany have bought with the money, material and manpower tied up in the High Seas Fleet? More divisions? More guns and aircraft? Or best of all, more U-boats, the one element of German naval strength that did inflict immense damage on the Allies.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;">Don't Resort to Unrestricted Submarine Warfare</u></div>
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<u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /></u><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">It appears such a quaint custom now. But in 1914, submarines were supposed to surface when attacking merchant ships, and allow the crew and passengers to escape. As nobly humanitarian as it was, it also left submarines more vulnerable.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">The Germans honored this convention until 1915, and then switched to unrestricted submarine warfare in which ships would be sunk without warning. And the Germans sank plenty of ships, only to rescind it under American pressure, and then resume it in 1917 as a desperate measure to end a conflict that was bleeding Germany to death.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">Was it worth it? The all-out U-boat offensive did sink 880,000 tons of shipping in April 1917 alone and endangered the seaborne trade that Britain depended on. Unfortunately, it also helped U.S. President Woodrow Wilson to persuade Congress to declare war on Germany in April 1917. The intervention of more than a million fresh American soldiers by late 1918 heartened the British and French armies battered by years of war and the devastating German 1918 offensives.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: left;">Wilson believed that America should enter the war against Germany, and perhaps he would have achieved this regardless. Foregoing unrestricted submarine warfare would also have sheathed the dagger that did inflict painful cuts on Britain. It also would have postponed the flood of U.S troops that changed the balance of power on the Western Front in 1918.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; max-height: 1e+06px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span></div>
rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-53725618148518376362016-08-13T06:12:00.000-07:002016-08-13T06:12:24.582-07:00How the United States nearly annexed the Yucatán in 1847 <span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">So it seems that in 1847 the United States nearly annexed the Yucatán when the 2nd Republic of Yucatán President Santiago Mendez made a formal offer for the annexation of Yucatán to the United States, an argument that appealed to some of the radical expansionists and the </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_America_movement" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Young America movement</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">. President James Knox Polk was pleased with the idea and the "Yucatán Bill" passed the United States House of Representatives, but was discarded by the Senate and thus nothing came of the annexation of Yucatán.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Article at InsightSur called </span><a href="https://insightsur.com/2012/10/29/how-the-united-states-nearly-annexed-the-yucatan/" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">How the United States Nearly Annexed the Yucatán</a><br />
<u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br /></u>
<u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Article in question</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Twice, during the nineteenth century, the Republic of Yucatan existed as a sovereign state, independent of Mexico, and nearly ended up as part of the United States of America.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Located in Southeastern Mexico, the Yucatán is now part of the 31 states of Mexico; however, amid the chaos of the Mexican American War, an uprising from the indigenous Mayans, and political infighting lead to the near annexation of the region to a very young United States.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">The first republic was short-lived, and joined what was then the Mexican Federation, in December of 1823; only seven months after being founded.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Eighteen years later, the Republic of Yucatan declared independence from the same Mexican Federation, but would only remain independent this time for seven years, until rejoining in 1848.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Near the end of those seven years of independence, a delegation of the Yucatan Republic was sent to Washington D.C., on the orders of then president Santiago Méndez Ibarra.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Initially, the delegation was in Washington to argue for the nation’s neutrality in the conflict between Mexico and the United States, as it was currently facing a blockade by US forces. In addition to making pleas for military assistance to the governor of the island of Cuba, the admiral of Jamaica, and the ministers of Spain and England, Méndez also explicitly offered “the dominion, and sovereignty of the [Republic of Yucatan]” to the fast growing United States of America in exchange for assistance to put an end to blockades, infighting, and uprisings in the region.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">James Knox Polk, the 11th President of the United States, supported the idea of assisting the Yucatan Republic, and the U.S. House of Representatives followed with the so called “Yucatan Bill,” which was subsequently passed, paving the way for the potential eventual annexation of a large portion of Mexico into the burgeoning United States, even if the initial bill only offered military assistance.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Polk also made an offer to the Spanish Government for Cuba during his administration, and was eager to secure the western regions of the United States before any European powers could attempt to control the area.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">However, due to concerns over the nature of internal conflict in the Yucatan, Congress did not act on the bill. They were also concerned about extending a military already engaged in the war with Mexico, and feared a drawn out conflict with the indigenous population in the Yucatan.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Being unable to obtain external assistance, Méndez would step down as erstwhile leader of Yucatan, and his predecessor Miguel Barbachano would reach out to the Mexican government for assistance against indigenous conflicts, and returned the region to the confederation of Mexico.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Thus, after coming within a vote from the United States congress of potentially being absorbed into the republic to the north, the Republic of Yucatán would return again to Mexico after less than a decade of intermittent independence.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Proposed expansion of the United States to include Yucatán, Cuba, and northern Mexico<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://www.theyucatantimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Proposed-expansion-of-the-United-States-to-include-Yucat%C3%A1n-Cuba-and-northern-Mexico.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13.3333px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Another article can be read on the Yucatán Times called: </span><a href="http://www.theyucatantimes.com/2015/07/yucatan-usa/" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Yucatán, USA?</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Article in question<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></u><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">The governor of the independent Republic of Yucatán had dispatched Sierra as its special “commissioner and agent.” The United States and Mexico were at war, and although Yucatán had declared itself a nonbelligerent, the U.S. Navy was occupying the important seaport of Carmen and pocketing badly needed tariffs. Sierra’s assignment was to win relief from the trade restrictions.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Sierra got the appointment because of family connections. He was the son-in-law of Santiago Méndez Ibarra, three-time governor and leader of the Campeche faction in the Republic’s contentious government. Born the illegitimate son of a housemaid in remote Tixcacaltuyub, Sierra had improbably become a prominent lawyer, journalist, and novelist. His father was likely José María Domínguez, the priest who employed his mother, María Sierra O’Reilly. Priests in Mérida became his protectors and patrons after his father died. He received an excellent education, became politically active, and moved to Campeche as a judge.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">The commissioner sailed from Campeche on September 12, 1847 and reached New Orleans aboard the merchant steamship Alabama on October 4.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Serious illness struck in New Orleans, likely yellow fever or malaria. While delayed, he received news of civil war in Yucatán and the overthrow of the Méndez faction. Sierra considered returning home, but a message from Méndez urged him to continue.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">The journey on to Washington took three weeks. After travelling by steamboat up the Mississippi, Ohio, and Monongahela Rivers, Sierra crossed the Allegheny Mountains by stagecoach to Cumberland, Maryland. Beginning to experience the cold weather of the North, he boarded a train, which deeply impressed him — railroads were unknown anywhere in Latin America at the time — and reached Washington on November 16.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Sierra went to work immediately, sending a letter to Secretary of State James Buchanan the next day. Buchanan agreed to a meeting on November 22. Sierra arrived with a translator — he could speak and write some English, although evidently not up to the level of international diplomacy — and presented his credentials. The meeting was cordial and ended with Sierra’s agreeing to write a memorandum describing the situation in Yucatán.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">His lengthy document delivered to Buchanan two days later focused on Yucatán’s neutrality and independence, the occupation of Carmen, and collection of tariffs. Sierra waited with growing frustration more than a month for a reply, using the time to cultivate relationships with members of Congress and write repeated entreaties to Buchanan.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">When Buchanan at last responded on Christmas Eve, he reported that the President, James K. Polk, had denied most of Sierra’s requests. Polk would maintain the occupation of Carmen and would treat Yucatán as part of Mexico, although with a special neutral status. He agreed to lift tariffs on shipments within Yucatán, though, so Sierra’s efforts yielded at least a minor victory.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">At year-end, Justo Sierra O’Reilly received alarming news that changed the focus of his mission. The Indian uprising in Yucatán, which had seemed like a local problem when he left, had become far more serious. Major cities were threatened, and the government urgently needed help to avoid disaster.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">In the early months of 1848, Sierra hammered away with the new message. The Maya war now completely overshadowed the tariff issue. He repeatedly sent letters to Buchanan, met with Buchanan’s political rival, Vice President George Dallas, spoke with senators, and published letters in newspapers. Savages had declared a war of extermination. Surely the civilized United States did not want Yucatán to fall into the hands of savages. But the United States was blocking shipment of desperately needed arms, while the British in Belize supplied the Indians.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Through a gloomy February, no response came from Buchanan. On March 7, Sierra sent his most forceful letter yet. Indians at the door of the capital! Annihilation fast approaching! U.S. continuing to restrict trade! Spanish warship arriving with aid! On his own authority, Sierra now specifically asked for direct intervention, two thousand U.S. soldiers and a half-million dollars, worth about fourteen million today.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Buchanan read the letter in a Cabinet meeting the same day. After initial objections, the President sent orders to permit arms delivery on humanitarian grounds. Surplus U.S. powder and muskets from Mexico did eventually arrive in Yucatán, and payments of duties at Carmen were eased.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Sierra had won some incremental concessions, but the news from Yucatán — many weeks in transit — was increasingly dire. His desperate requests continued, with no response from Buchanan, who was away on vacation. For the first time, he began citing the policy later called the Monroe Doctrine, recently reaffirmed by Polk: The U.S. would view interference in America by European nations as acts of aggression. Could the United States choose to remain passive and let Spain or Great Britain intervene in Yucatán?</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Then a remarkable message came in from Yucatán. On March 23 Santiago Méndez sent identical letters to the governments of the United States, Spain, and Great Britain, with corresponding instructions to Sierra.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Yucatán would surrender its sovereignty to any nation that would come to its rescue.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">The idea of foreign protection at tomes of trouble was not an entirely new one for independent Yucatán. Méndez had considered annexation by the United States, and his rival, Miguel Barbachano, liked the idea of reverting to Spain. Great Britain was aggressively expanding its influence in Central America at the time and seemed like another possibility.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">In Washington, Justo Sierra O’Reilly was disgusted with idea of Yucatán’s annexation by the United States. “With great repugnance,” he sent the message forward into the slow State Department channels on April 21. But Buchanan had received the letter directly from Méndez and presented it to the President the next day.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">On that same day, Saturday, April 22, 1848, Sierra sent a letter to the President requesting an audience, bypassing the unresponsive Buchanan. President Polk agreed to meet that very evening. Sierra arrived with his interpreter, a Dr. Baldwin, at 9:00. Knowing Polk’s distrust of Great Britain, Sierra played on the idea that Yucatán might have to submit to British power to survive. Polk listened courteously, expressed sympathy for his requests, and promised to do what he could. Sierra later had only favorable comments about Polk and was charmed by the republican simplicity of the White House — the President himself showed him to the front door.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">On the following Tuesday, the Cabinet took up the Yucatán issue. Polk stated that he would never allow it to fall into hands of a foreign monarchy and was in favor of “ultimate annexation.” He directed Buchanan to draft a message to Congress urging intervention.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">At this time of radical expansionism, the idea of annexing Yucatán was appealing to many in the United States. The term “Manifest Destiny” had recently appeared in print, asserting the nation’s right to occupy the entire continent. The nationalistic Young America Movement was a growing force and urged expansion. The nation had just absorbed the Oregon Country and Texas. The take-over of half the land area of Mexico was in progress, and a significant “All of Mexico” faction specifically saw Yucatán as an opportunity. Political leaders had long viewed Cuba as a “natural appendage” to the United States, and Polk offered to purchase Cuba from Spain for the astounding sum of $100 million, equal to almost three billion dollars today. Taking Yucatán, Cuba, and a swath of northern Mexico would make the Gulf of Mexico an American lake, seen as important for national security. Buchanan maintained that the Spanish-speaking lands “would speedily be Americanized, as Louisiana has been.”</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">President Polk sent his Bill for the Relief of the Yucatán to Congress on April 29, 1848. His accompanying message urged its passage for both security and humanitarian reasons. The bill called for temporary military occupation, but no one doubted that it could become much more than that. In an election year, it fell immediately into a storm of party and racial politics.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">In the years immediately before the Civil War, issues of race obsessed the United States. The issues were binary, either-or. People understood the clear, immovable line between black and white. They understood Indians and had given up any idea of assimilation in favor of eradication or removal. They were very uncertain about the complex racial nature of Yucatecans — white, Spanish, Mexican, mixed, Indian, or what? How were they different from the racially ambiguous and untrustworthy Mexicans recently defeated?</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Even though Sierra personally opposed annexation, he worked to win passage of the bill and aid for his homeland. He understood the race issue and cast the conflict in stark binary terms understandable to the legislators: Whites versus Indians, civilization versus barbarism. The President’s message to Congress was remarkably similar to Sierra’s.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Senator Edward Hannegan, Democrat of Indiana and an even more rabid expansionist than Polk, had the responsibility for getting the Yucatán bill through Congress. He urged his colleagues to “defend white civilization against barbarous savages” and to take Yucatán in order to prevent Britain from seizing all of southern Mexico.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Some reputable sources say the House of Representatives passed the bill, but official records show this is not true. The House debated the bill only one day and quickly referred it to the Committee on Foreign Affairs, where it lay dormant, awaiting action in the Senate.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">The Senate Committee on Foreign Relations reported the bill to the full Senate on May 4, and lively debate continued during the next two weeks. The national security argument was prominent but controversial. Senator Jefferson Davis of Mississippi said, “The cape of Yucatán and the island Cuba must be ours” to protect the Gulf, “water belonging to the United States.” Other Senators from southern states opposed annexation because slavery was illegal in Yucatán. Some challenged it on racial grounds, using terms about the “Yucatanese” that are very distasteful, even unprintable today. Some saw Yucatecans as not quite civilized and not quite white, unworthy of help. Senator John C. Calhoun of South Carolina rejected the “white-civilization” argument and called Yucatán “a worthless country.” Yucatán’s political instability was troubling, and some argued that the war there was just a political dispute of some kind. And yet the arguments for national security and humanitarian relief were strong, and it looked like the bill could pass.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">As the debate progressed in Congress, Justo Sierra O’Reilly continued working behind the scenes for the bill’s passage. He had many meetings with Congressmen. He stoked rumors that Britain intended to control Yucatán and all Central America. He worked the press. The New York Herald published an article planted by Sierra approving annexation and urging the take-over of Tabasco and Chiapas as well, so the United States would control the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Final arguments on the bill were scheduled for May 16, when news arrived that changed everything.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Miguel Barbachano and a leader of the Maya revolt, Jacinto Pat, had signed the Treaty of Tzucacab. It was a bogus agreement, accepted by almost no one and abrogated within days, but the U.S. press accepted it as an end to the Caste War. Newspapers reported that “San Jacinto Pat” was actually of Irish ancestry. It had not been a war of extermination after all, just been a squabble between political factions.</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/699/united-states-nearly-annexed-yucat" target="_blank">http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/699/united-states-nearly-annexed-yucat</a></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-3675456691032576932016-08-04T09:43:00.003-07:002016-08-04T09:43:55.837-07:00Map: United States, Annexation Bill of 1866 passed <span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">In 1866 the </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_Bill_of_1866" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Annexation Bill</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;"> was a bill introduced on July 2nd 1866, but never passed in the United States House of Representatives. It called for the annexation of British North America and the admission of its provinces as states and territories in the Union. The bill was sent to committee but never came back, was never voted upon, and did not become law. The bill never came to the United States Senate.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Bill in its complete form can be read online: </span><a href="https://www.collectionscanada.gc.ca/confederation/023001-7102-e.html" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">A Bill for the admission of the States of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Canada East, and Canada West, and for the organization of the Territories of Selkirk, Saskatchewan, and Columbia</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Several financial incentives were offered to the British Colonies to help get them on board including:</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Purchase of the Hudson’s Bay Company’s lands for $10,000,000.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Take over provincial debts which amounted to $85,700,000.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Give an annual subsidy of $1,646,000 to the new states.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Connect Canada with the Maritimes by rail and spend $50,000,000 to complete and improve the colonial canal system.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Map of the alternate United States if the Annexation Bill of 1866 had passed.</u><img alt=" " src="http://brilliantmaps.com/wp-content/uploads/Annexation_Bill_of_1866_map.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">This map was made by Rubberduck3y6 from AH.com and a good article to read about is </span><a href="http://brilliantmaps.com/annexation-1866/#more-2064" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">The United States If The Annexation Bill of 1866</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;"> Had Passed at </span><a href="http://brilliantmaps.com/" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Brilliant Maps</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;"> website.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Proposed states and territories</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">States</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">New Brunswick: Modern-day New Brunswick</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Nova Scotia: Modern-day Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Canada East: Modern-day Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, and part of modern-day northern Ontario.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Canada West: Modern-day southern Ontario, and part of modern-day northern Ontario.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Territories:</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Selkirk Territory: Modern-day Manitoba, and parts of modern-day northwestern Ontario, Nunavut, Saskatchewan and the Northwest Territories</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Saskatchewan Territory: Modern-day Alberta, and parts of modern-day Saskatchewan, British Columbia, the Northwest Territories and Yukon.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Columbia Territory: The part of modern-day British Columbia west of the Rocky Mountains.</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br /></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8754149173721236808.post-71300174565074317942016-07-30T03:57:00.001-07:002016-07-30T03:57:40.221-07:00Map: separatist movements in Europe get their wish <a href="http://alternate-timelines.proboards.com/thread/763/map-separatist-movements-europe-get" target="_blank">Map: separatist movements in Europe get their wis</a>e<br />
<u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br /></u>
<u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Europe as envisioned by the European Free Alliance</u><br />
<br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">What if every separatist movement in Europe that wished for independence was granted it, this map that was created by the </span><a href="http://www.e-f-a.org/about-us/whats-efa-and-history/" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">European Free Alliance</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">, shows not only Scotland separated from England but Wales and Cornwall too. Bavaria, with a population of 12,5 million, has split from Germany and a Republic of Venice has been established in Italy. The Basque nationalist Movement has broken away from northern Spain and southwestern France and the the little-known Savoyan League has also separated from France with a population of 405,000.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Map of Europe as envisioned by the European Free Alliance</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="http://static4.uk.businessinsider.com/image/5455175edd089564098b4eb1-960/evakaart2013-1.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Another map of Europe as envisioned by the European Free Alliance<br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="https://anonybulgaria.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/fr-carte-grand_format.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">A map depicting the active separatist movements in Europe</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Wikipedia page related called: </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_separatist_movements_in_Europe" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">List of active separatist movements in Europe</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">A map posted on Wikipedia depicting active separatist movements in Europe</i><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">Map of active separatist movements in Europe. Red names indicate regions with movements that only claim greater autonomy within the actual state. Black names indicate regions with important secessionist movements, although both categories include moderate movements. The nations highlighted in colors are the territories claimed by the local nationalist groups, including areas out of the state’s borders and cases of annexation to other states.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/59/Active_separatist_movements_in_Europe.svg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Another map of Europe if all separatist/independence movements succeeded</u><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px;">From the website called </span><a href="http://maptitude1.tumblr.com/post/110196924717/europe-if-all-separatistindependence-movements" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #105469; cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-stretch: normal; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">maptitude</a><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><img alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUAONyfMj3K6a7bEbyODSHebhCXPThaZ8EW6gImZacQTxtwRE85Db9oGwTIP6_Cz5oBjYIYHXiaPHQ2eJxoJXpC7SGTnz4-Nm9aNRBMh-FlcY7SS-wIonv3_Ienc8iO8E_t3lR65fYQp_K/s1600/Independence.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-height: 1e+06px; word-wrap: break-word;" /></span>rrm.hendrikx@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01532426558046750327noreply@blogger.com0